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Remnants of Ian: Threat for us?


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8 hours ago, midatlanticweather said:

 

Looks like this is manifesting in our rain forecast with both an earlier start tonight and the secondary low hanging around in our area and bringing rain Sunday-Monday.  That second part has been the tough forecast. 
 

Esrlier start and a break tomorrow afternoon is good news for my mother in laws birthday party. But bad news for me sitting out at the Nats-Phillies game tonight :raining:

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55 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Looks like this is manifesting in our rain forecast with both an earlier start tonight and the secondary low hanging around in our area and bringing rain Sunday-Monday.  That second part has been the tough forecast. 
 

Esrlier start and a break tomorrow afternoon is good news for my mother in laws birthday party. But bad news for me sitting out at the Nats-Phillies game tonight :raining:

Hopefully the break in the rain tomorrow works out as forecasted for you during your Mother in laws 70th bday party.

My son came down with Strep throat on Wednesday and with the ugly forecast over the weekend we decided to postpone my wife's 40th bday party. 

To many people crammed in the house with lots of cousins running around inside makes for an unpleasant experience lol. 

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People just don't realize that its NOT a tidal wave amount of water that comes and goes.  It is a relentless, steady rise that lasts for hours.  Just when you think its done it keeps coming.  Wind can push a hell of a lot of water.  Likely to have deaths in the 1000s if too many people didn't haul ass out of there.

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13 minutes ago, H2O said:

People just don't realize that its NOT a tidal wave amount of water that comes and goes.  It is a relentless, steady rise that lasts for hours.  Just when you think its done it keeps coming.  Wind can push a hell of a lot of water.  Likely to have deaths in the 1000s if too many people didn't haul ass out of there.

A lot of these homes that looked fine are going to be gutted from the water damage. The recovery is going to take years, not weeks like people think. 

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26 minutes ago, H2O said:

People just don't realize that its NOT a tidal wave amount of water that comes and goes.  It is a relentless, steady rise that lasts for hours.  Just when you think its done it keeps coming.  Wind can push a hell of a lot of water.  Likely to have deaths in the 1000s if too many people didn't haul ass out of there.

Not only do people not understand what storm surge is, it is not emphasized enough.  Far too much concentration on wind.  

Also, the majority of people misunderstand the forecast cone.  Most think that black line in the middle is the path and that the expanding cone only means the storm is getting larger as it moves.  This led to many being completely unprepared for what happened.

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26 minutes ago, anotherman said:

Not only do people not understand what storm surge is, it is not emphasized enough.  Far too much concentration on wind.  

Also, the majority of people misunderstand the forecast cone.  Most think that black line in the middle is the path and that the expanding cone only means the storm is getting larger as it moves.  This led to many being completely unprepared for what happened.

It's troubling that I didn't see anyone boarding up like old school floridians knew to do. No traffic jams fleeing the area. No video of thousands packed into safe shelters. I am sure I missed some but saw none.

Media is definitely laser focused on the peak wind and CAT # - and I will throw in there central pressure. For the layman that number means nothing to them as they likely don't know if higher or lower is worse for their safety.

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8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

HRRR  has some gusts to near tropical storm force creeping up into southern Maryland and a good chunk of the eastern shore. Might see some wind advisories come out of this.

I told my mom early this week Ian wasn't going to be a big deal for the eastern shore.  Now it will be to an extent.  Winds and tides mostly.  And western side of the bay will see some flooding now

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URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1000 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022

VAZ025-036>038-503-504-507-508-WVZ505-302200-
/O.NEW.KLWX.WI.Y.0014.220930T2000Z-221001T1000Z/
Augusta-Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Western Highland-Eastern Highland-
Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge-
Western Pendleton-
Including the cities of Staunton, Waynesboro, Stuarts Draft,
Lovingston, Charlottesville, Stanardsville, Hightown, Monterey,
Big Meadows, Wintergreen, and Riverton
1000 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph
  expected. Highest winds will be along the ridges.

* WHERE...In Virginia, Augusta, Nelson, Albemarle, Greene,
  Western Highland and Eastern Highland Counties, and Northern
  Virginia Blue Ridge and Central Virginia Blue Ridge. In West
  Virginia, Western Pendleton County.

* WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result,
  particularly along the ridges.
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URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1000 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022

MDZ017-018-302200-
/O.NEW.KLWX.WI.Y.0014.220930T2200Z-221001T0800Z/
St. Marys-Calvert-
Including the cities of Lexington Park, California,
Chesapeake Beach, Huntingtown, Dunkirk, North Beach, Lusby,
and Prince Frederick
1000 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph
  expected along the shores of the Chesapeake.

* WHERE...St. Marys and Calvert Counties.

* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects.
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may
  result.
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1 hour ago, H2O said:

I told my mom early this week Ian wasn't going to be a big deal for the eastern shore.  Now it will be to an extent.  Winds and tides mostly.  And western side of the bay will see some flooding now

Bethany had some erosion last week.  I wonder how much more they will get from Ian?

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5 hours ago, Chris78 said:

Hopefully the break in the rain tomorrow works out as forecasted for you during your Mother in laws 70th bday party.

My son came down with Strep throat on Wednesday and with the ugly forecast over the weekend we decided to postpone my wife's 40th bday party. 

To many people crammed in the house with lots of cousins running around inside makes for an unpleasant experience lol. 

Our grandson outdoor 6th  birthday 10/1 is inside now.  
I contract to wedding venues with outdoor events and scrambling for this evening and tomorrow 
 

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