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Hurricane Ian


Scott747
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2AM NHC is at 83.0 W again. So, no net east move in longitude in 5 hours as it was at 83.0 at 9PM. May be pretty meaningless due to wobbling and thus may make up for this over the next few hours, but I still find it interesting. It has moved only at about 7 mph the last 3 hours fwiw.

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30 minutes ago, shaggy said:

Is it just me or did the euro just initialize a full degree south and 8mb weaker than current position and strength?

The Euro initialized at 8PM (0Z) near the right latitude (just south of Key West's latitude) but at 18 mb weaker than actual strength at 8PM.

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1 minute ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

Eye has contracted and is tightening up. Deep convection firing in the N/NE eyewall right now. At 2:00am the eye was over 30mi wide. Now at 3:25am the eye is about 22-23mi wide.

Bound to have been some RI due to conservation of angular momentum.

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Latest NHC update is about how tropical storm force winds are now reaching both SE and SW Florida, and indeed that is the case here. We just got a spiral band and winds were gusting to tropical storm force, especially 
right before the band hit, followed by absolutely torrential rain. Whiteout conditions like a blizzard. 

Also notably, Ian is back to moving NorthEast. It was apparent on radar but NHC confirmed it. 

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
300 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...3 AM EDT HURRICANE IAN POSITION UPDATE...
...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS REACHING THE COASTS OF SOUTHEAST AND 
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...

Near the southeastern coast of Florida, a WeatherFlow station at 
Biscayne Bay Light recently measured a sustained wind of 39 mph (63 
km/h) and a wind gust to 60 mph (96 km/h).

On the southwestern coast of Florida, a WeatherFlow station near 
Sanibel Island recently measured a sustained wind of 35 mph (56 
km/h) and a wind gust to 47 mph (76 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 300 AM EDT...0700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.3N 82.9W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SW OF NAPLES FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.14 INCHES
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18 minutes ago, Amped said:

A good analog would be Katrina/Camille both took very similar tracks and had some different impacts due to the size difference.

Huh? At least Camille went over western Cuba but the track similarities end there. Not many good analogs to go off of here in modern record keeping. 

AB318B12-EAA8-422A-91D1-9CE074BEE9A1.png

54CA52C9-09BB-4DED-8D67-ECFF7A743612.png

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1 minute ago, Amped said:

Environmental pressure is running a bit high, so this is getting close to Hugo. 

A major at landfall looking likely at this point, unless it stalls just offshore while shear eats it alive. 

It’s also now over a branch of the loop current which is also aiding the RI we are seeing….along with friction and angle of approach.

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000
WTNT34 KNHC 280856
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Advisory Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
500 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND IAN HAS STRENGTHENED INTO AN
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC
WINDS AND FLOODING IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 82.9W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM WSW OF NAPLES FLORIDA
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM SSW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* Dry Tortugas

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Suwannee River southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Lower Florida Keys from Big Pine Key westward to Key West
* Dry Tortugas
* Flagler/Volusia Line to the mouth of the St. Mary's River
* St. Johns River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas
* Indian Pass to the Anclote River
* All of the Florida Keys
* Flamingo to South Santee River
* Flamingo to Chokoloskee
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Bay
* Bimini and Grand Bahama Islands

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to east of Big
Pine Key
* Florida Bay
* Mouth of St. Mary's River to South Santee River

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ian was located
near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 82.9 West. Ian is moving toward
the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h).  This general motion with
a reduction in forward speed is forecast today, followed by a turn 
toward the north on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of 
Ian is expected to approach the west coast of Florida within the 
hurricane warning area this morning, and move onshore later today. 
The center of Ian is forecast to move over central Florida tonight 
and Thursday morning and emerge over the western Atlantic by late 
Thursday.

Very recent data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft 
indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 140 
mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts.  Ian is a category 4 hurricane on 
the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some fluctuations in 
intensity are possible before Ian reaches the coast of Florida.   
Ian is forecast to approach the west coast of Florida as an 
extremely dangerous major hurricane.  Weakening is expected after 
landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 942 mb (27.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* Middle of Longboat Key to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte 
Harbor...8-12 ft
* Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee...6-10 ft
* Anclote River to Middle of Longboat Key, including 
Tampa Bay...4-6 ft
* Chokoloskee to East Cape Sable...4-7 ft
* Suwannee River to Anclote River...3-5 ft
* Lower Keys from Key West to Big Pine Key, including the 
Dry Tortugas...3-5 ft
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Savannah River including St. Johns 
River...3-5 ft
* St. Johns River south of Julington...2-4 ft
* Savannah River to South Santee River...2-4 ft
* East Cape Sable to Card Sound Bridge...2-4 ft
* Florida Keys east of Big Pine Key...2-4 ft
* Patrick Air Force Base to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-3 ft
* Indian Pass to Suwanee River...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND:  Catastrophic wind damage is likely where the core of Ian
moves onshore.  Hurricane conditions will begin along the west
coast of Florida within the Hurricane Warning area later this
morning, with tropical storm conditions beginning before daybreak.

Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning area in the
Florida Keys, and will continue this morning.  Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the warning area on the east coast of
Florida beginning today, and should spread up the Georgia and
South Carolina coasts tonight and Thursday.  Tropical storm
conditions are expected within the warning area in Cuba for the
next few hours.

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall:

* Florida Keys and South Florida: 6 to 8 inches, with local maxima
up to 12 inches.
* Central and Northeast Florida: 12 to 18 inches, with local
maxima up to 24 inches.
* Eastern Georgia and Coastal South Carolina: 4 to 8 inches, with
local maxima of 12 inches.

Widespread, life-threatening catastrophic flash, urban, and river
flooding is expected across central Florida.  Widespread
considerable flash, urban, and river flooding is expected across
portions of southern Florida through Wednesday, and northeast
Florida, southeastern Georgia, and coastal South Carolina later this
week through the weekend.  Limited flash, urban, and river flooding
is possible over portions of the Southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic
later this week through the weekend.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible today and tonight across central
and south Florida.

SURF:  Swells generated by Ian are affecting the northern coast
of Cuba, the northeastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula, the
Florida Keys, and the Gulf coast of Florida.  These swells will
spread westward along portions of the north-central Gulf
coast during the next day or so. Swells will increase along the
east coast of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina tonight and
Thursday.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Frictional convergence at coast is feeding vorticity-rich air into the eye wall, rapidly amplifying the overall vortex. 

Considering this, Ian is likely to intensify further. It could easily become a Cat 5, as long as recon is there to measure it.

Plus, this frictional convergence will drag Ian eastward into the coast. It’s already begun tugging on it, as soon as the primary band hit SW FL the whole thing started to shift east on radar. 
 

getting absolutely pounded with tropical downpours here. This band alone could dump 6 inches on the metro areas.

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1 minute ago, turtlehurricane said:

Frictional convergence at coast is feeding vorticity-rich air into the eye wall, rapidly amplifying the overall vortex. 

Considering this, Ian is likely to intensify further. It could easily become a Cat 5, as long as recon is there to measure it.

Plus, this frictional convergence will drag Ian eastward into the coast. It’s already begun tugging on it, as soon as the primary band hit SW FL the whole thing started to shift east on radar. 
 

getting absolutely pounded with tropical downpours here. This band alone could dump 6 inches on the metro areas.

It’s not going to be a cat 5.

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REALLY trying to clear the eye, curious about how much more intensification occurs before landfall in about 6ish hours imo. Also meso vortices evident on radar/satellite. That SE side of landfall is likely going to be a very populated area regardless of due east wobbles and will receive one hell of a surge. Awful man.

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