hawkeye_wx Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 It's possible that if this storm does not hit sw Florida, instead remaining farther west over the gulf, it may not even hit land as a hurricane. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 HR 204 on 12z GFS...remnant center just south of Pittsburgh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: It's possible that if this storm does not hit sw Florida, instead remaining farther west over the gulf, it may not even hit land as a hurricane. Everything is in play at this juncture…lots of moving parts that aren’t being sampled correctly yet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 HR 210 on 12z GFS...remnant center near State College PA. SLP down to 990mb. Decent precip shield on NW side of low. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 Let’s see what the euro comes with in 90 minutes? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 Very interested to see what the 12z GEFS has to say, especially for inland folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Mike Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 20 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Everything is in play at this juncture…lots of moving parts that aren’t being sampled correctly yet. Like to see those extra weather balloons looking at those upper level winds regarding that trough 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 Just now, Weather Mike said: Like to see those extra weather balloons looking at those upper level winds regarding that trough Agreed. That definitely helps NWP with the mid latitude features that will eventually pick TD9 up and thrust it into the CONUS. Would even go so far as to saw that once this system makes the turn north, we'll probably have a pretty good idea on timing, intensity, and speed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 12Z GEFS mean is significantly west of the last GEFS run and has the largest number of members well to the west in the central GOM since yesterday's 12Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 Just now, GaWx said: 12Z GEFS is significantly west of the last GEFS run and has the largest number of members well to the west in the central GOM since yesterday's 12Z run. Is this due to the 2 centers of circulation, picking the further Sw as the main center? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 7 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: Is this due to the 2 centers of circulation, picking the further Sw as the main center? That's my educated guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 I also show in the video the "return period" for a major hurricane in the Ft. Myers/Charlotte Harbor area is 18 years. It's been 18 years since Charley. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 FWIW HMON and HWRF which are on the left side of the guidance absolutely explodes TD9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 You can see right now on satellite what the GFS is trying to do. There is an MLC further SW that is very apparent, however the current LLC ain't going away. Brand new convection already firing near it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 Looks a little further southwest through 48 on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 14 minutes ago, Normandy said: You can see right now on satellite what the GFS is trying to do. There is an MLC further SW that is very apparent, however the current LLC ain't going away. Brand new convection already firing near it. Agreed. That's a nice little pop of deep convection right next to the center while it looks like the convection to the southwest is fading away. Fiona did the same thing and ended up keeping its LLC. Wouldn't be surprised to see the southern Florida landfall like Icon is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 Primary energy is in the NW quadrant of the LLC per Flash Extent Density. I just don't see a relocation happening to the SW with this much energy is still centered around the LLC. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?stormid=AL092022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 HWRF riding the 85W longtitude from tip of Cuba all the way abreast of Tampa Bay -- HMON also on the western edge of NHC guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 Wow -- 12Z Euro WELL to the south/left of yesterday's 12z run at 96 hours vs. 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 Yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said: Yikes 12z Euro basically follows the exact NHC cone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 Euro is a beast sub 950 mb making landfall near Naples 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 The 12z Euro would be worst case... the perfect track for strength and impact... spends a bit more time over the Caribbean, allowing it to strengthen more, passes over the thin part of Cuba, strengthens significantly over the Florida straights, turns into Florida before it can weaken. Charlie-esque. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 Wow -- 12Z Euro WELL to the south/left of yesterday's 12z run at 96 hours vs. 72Keep the pbp coming Skip, I’m at work. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 Euro is 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 I still think the Euro may be a tad too far east with its idea but that is a pretty bad track if this is a 3 or 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: I still think the Euro may be a tad too far east with its idea but that is a pretty bad track if this is a 3 or 4 Slight adjustment west would be worse. Would push more surge into Ft Myers area which is extremely surge prone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 Back over water at hr 138. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 48 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said: FWIW HMON and HWRF which are on the left side of the guidance absolutely explodes TD9 That UKMET track is from the 0Z as the 12Z is a good bit further west (along 85W through 144). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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