September 2022

[MANDA]

Just .07" here.  Glad some you you L.I. folks got something - much needed and well deserved.

[MJO812]

We need the rain up here

What's the point of blocking now ?

[FPizz]

1.10" last night

[wdrag]

Ian and monthly: Ian substantial rains unlikely (my wrong prior expectation) to arrive prior to Oct 1 so LGA and BDR top 20 month of Sept rainfall will remain as is (even with a small shower or two the next couple of days), within the shorter period of record dating back to the 1940s.  00z/26 GEPS is the only ensemble (recent cycles coming on board) that has decent qpf up here late Friday Sept 30.  CoCoRaHs rainfall for yesterday is attached (please click for clarity). Noting the south shore of LI pretty much missed again. Also, very little rain extreme nw NJ (0.01 this part of Wantage at our home) and POU area. 

Ian: highest PW-moisture still destined up here but possibly delayed til Sunday Oct2?  Ensembles peel the heavier rains eastward just south of our NYC subforum. Presuming it comes up here as a nor'easter, then squally ne winds. All this paragraph still TBD. 

Finally for all the Mets fans: Ian "may" force one of the  Fri or Sat night games to be placed into a day-night double header Sunday Oct 2?  Long ways off and timing is everything so maybe these play with normal 720PM starting times, though I foresee delays.  26/1314z

 

 

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Yep, looks like the rain is edging north again. It's just unbelievable how persistent this is over months now.

what causes this persistence?  Strong bermuda high?

[LibertyBell]

22 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Ian and monthly: Ian substantial rains unlikely (my wrong prior expectation) to arrive prior to Oct 1 so LGA and BDR top 20 month of Sept rainfall will remain as is (even with a small shower or two the next couple of days), within the shorter period of record dating back to the 1940s.  00z/26 GEPS is the only ensemble (recent cycles coming on board) that has decent qpf up here late Friday Sept 30.  CoCoRaHs rainfall for yesterday is attached (please click for clarity). Noting the south shore of LI pretty much missed again. Also, very little rain extreme nw NJ (0.01 this part of Wantage at our home) and POU area. 

Ian: highest PW-moisture still destined up here but possibly delayed til Sunday Oct2?  Ensembles peel the heavier rains eastward just south of our NYC subforum. Presuming it comes up here as a nor'easter, then squally ne winds. All this paragraph still TBD. 

Finally for all the Mets fans: Ian "may" force one of the  Fri or Sat night games to be placed into a day-night double header Sunday Oct 2?  Long ways off and timing is everything so maybe these play with normal 720PM starting times, though I foresee delays.  26/1314z

 

 

Looks like JFK did make it to 0.5"

I wonder when the last time was JFK had an event that dumped 1.00" or more?

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Ended with .01”. And yes it is incredible. The most localized intense drought you could dream up. I wonder if it has anything to do with increased water temps. Which would make sense, in that a place like Florida will constantly see convention from and sit just a few miles from the beach.
We’ll see what strataform season brings. I doubt this can continue


.

It's that and also entering the cool phase of the AMO.  I believe we are in store for some fair weather low rainfall summers :-)

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The record blocking will result in a cooler pattern into next weekend across the area. So Ian is expected to stall out near the Gulf Coast of Florida. This is a continuation of needing record blocking just to get cooler than average temperatures around here.

 

Isn't this good for winter forecasts as October blocking usually foretells winter blocking?

 

[rclab]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Isn't this good for winter forecasts as October blocking usually foretells winter blocking?

 

Good morning Liberty. I wonder when/if, on our present trajectory it will take blocking in January just to get to 0 C in the inner city. Stay well, as always …..

[jm1220]

10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

what causes this persistence?  Strong bermuda high?

At this point it’s hard to say. The rainfall boundaries have kept setting up like this over northern NYC and northern LI. From time to time the sea breeze boundaries cause more rain to develop over central/northern LI but it’s been so excessive that it can’t be the overall story. 

[SACRUS]

67 and sunny.  Looks like the work week should feature mainly sunny / dry conditions and wonderful weather.  Next shot at rain would be this coming weekend 10/1-2 with where / what ever remnants of Ian crawling up or off the Mid Atlantic coast.  Probably near normal beyond Ian in the 10/3 - 10/6 period then ridging may build back into the EC.

 

MLB with huge headache this week as Ian may disrupt many critical and pivotal games Tues - Fri along the FL / GA.

[SACRUS]

 

[Volcanic Winter]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

We need the rain up here

What's the point of blocking now ?

Blocking the rain, of course. 

[lee59]

1.16 inch of rain last night

[STORMANLI]

1.71"

[psv88]

8 minutes ago, STORMANLI said:

1.71"

Yea we got crushed last night. Didn’t realize it was that much. Drought busted here. Gotta be over 3.5” for the month now 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

At this point it’s hard to say. The rainfall boundaries have kept setting up like this over northern NYC and northern LI. From time to time the sea breeze boundaries cause more rain to develop over central/northern LI but it’s been so excessive that it can’t be the overall story. 

I was wondering if we're becoming the new Florida.

But this does seem to be excessive even for that.

Do you remember 2002 at all? Was that drought similar to this one?

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

67 and sunny.  Looks like the work week should feature mainly sunny / dry conditions and wonderful weather.  Next shot at rain would be this coming weekend 10/1-2 with where / what ever remnants of Ian crawling up or off the Mid Atlantic coast.  Probably near normal beyond Ian in the 10/3 - 10/6 period then ridging may build back into the EC.

 

MLB with huge headache this week as Ian may disrupt many critical and pivotal games Tues - Fri along the FL / GA.

At this point all stadiums should have removable domes.

That they don't means their owners don't care about their teams.

 

[ILoveWinter]

Was at the Yankee game last night, the rain was torrential and lasted for quite a long time, pretty crazy night!

[LibertyBell]

Just now, ILoveWinter said:

Was at the Yankee game last night, the rain was torrential and lasted for quite a long time, pretty crazy night!

They need to move Yankee Stadium to the south shore lol

 

[STORMANLI]

49 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Yea we got crushed last night. Didn’t realize it was that much. Drought busted here. Gotta be over 3.5” for the month now 

4.75"

[jm1220]

24 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Yea we got crushed last night. Didn’t realize it was that much. Drought busted here. Gotta be over 3.5” for the month now 

We had a drought for maybe 2 weeks up here lol. More like an average dry spell. 

[uofmiami]

6.12” at Syosset & 5.34” in Muttontown for the month to date.

[scootmandu]

Final storm total for last night: .78

Total for the month: 5.99

Meanwhile, News 12 LI is reporting that the NWS is in Mattituck to determine if a tornado caused the damage there last night. A woman had a tree fall onto her house. They have damage pictures on their website.

[NorthShoreWx]

Didn't get power back until 10:30 this morning.  1.11" rainfall last night brings September total in North Smithtown to 3.72"

[USCG RS]

17 hours ago, USCG RS said:

Shear doing wonders.. 

https://longisland.news12.com/possible-tornado-touches-down-near-mattituck

 

[MANDA]

All signs point to dry weather pattern into next week.  Any remnant moisture from Ida looks to get squeezed out to the south of NJ.  Maybe SNJ gets something meaningful (1-2") but not even sure about that.  Just can't seem to get the tables to turn to get the Northeast into a wetter pattern.

[lee59]

When summer turned into fall last week, the weather was right on time with the change. 

[donsutherland1]

Cooler air will begin moving into the region tomorrow. The week will likely end with unseasonably cool temperatures.

Conditions in ENSO Region 1+2 could have implications for October's temperature anomalies. Since 1950, 15/21 (71%) of cases with an ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -0.75°C or below were warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic region, including Philadelphia and New York City. 48% were 1° or more above average in New York City and 62% were 1° or more above average in Philadelphia. Just 14% were 1° or more below normal in New York City while 24% were 1° or more below normal in Philadelphia. One-third of cases in both cities saw a monthly mean temperature of 60° or above. Such ENSO conditions also favored warmth in the Central and Northern Plains, along with dry conditions in the Plains States.

Early tomorrow, Cuba will see Ian cross the western end of its island as a major hurricane. Afterward, parts of the Florida Keys and then the Gulf Coast of Florida could face a hurricane threat. Tampa will need to watch the storm carefully.

In part due to Merbok's impact on the jet stream, September will likely end with cooler than normal conditions. The cool weather could continue into at least the start of October.

In the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The August ECMWF forecast shows a warmer than normal September in the Northeast. This warmth would be consistent with the ongoing warming that has been occurring in September.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around September 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.95°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was +32.21 today. That broke the old record of +30.04 from 1998.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.686 today.

On September 24 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.600 (RMM). The September 23-adjusted amplitude was 0.485 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 78% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.7° (0.5° above normal).

 

[psv88]

Confirmed tornado in Suffolk last night.