September 2022

[psv88]

85 today 

[donsutherland1]

Clouds gave way to afternoon sunshine. In response, the mercury rose into the lower and middle 80s. Tomorrow will be another warm day, but much cooler air will begin to filter into the region afterward. The coolest air mass so far this season will cover the region on Friday. However, the early autumnal chill will be short-lived. Noticeably warmer air will likely return early next week. The potential exists for parts of the region to experience 90° or above temperatures at the height of the warmth.

In the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The August ECMWF forecast shows a warmer than normal September in the Northeast. This warmth would be consistent with the ongoing warming that has been occurring in September.

On August 18, the SOI fell to -32.90. Since 1991, there were 8 cases when the SOI fell to -30 or below during the August 10-25 period. That outcome has often preceded a wetter than normal September in parts of the Northeast. Mean September rainfall figures for those 8 cases: Boston: 4.38" (normal: 3.55"); New York City: 5.08" (normal: 4.31"); and, Philadelphia: 5.12" (normal: 4.40"). Very wet years outnumbered very dry ones by a 2:1 ratio in Boston and 3:1 ratio in both New York City and Philadelphia. 63% of cases saw at least one day with 1" or more rainfall in Boston. 88% saw at least one day with 1" or more in New York City and Philadelphia. 50% of those cases saw at least one day with 2" or more daily rainfall in Philadelphia. In sum, the SOI may be offering a signal that there will be some drought relief for the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions in September. On September 7, Philadelphia picked up 1.22" of rain.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around September 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.00°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was +19.97 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.603 today.

On September 11 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.314 (RMM). The September 10-adjusted amplitude was 0.243 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 78% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.1° (1.9° above normal).

 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

The models are really facing off as to whether or not the European/GEPS western Atlantic ridge together with the part of the western ridge will build in over the northeast next week. GFS, GGEM, GEFS, EPS now in the "no" camp and then you have the Euro and GEPS in the "yes" camp. The "no" camp seems to put us back into June 2022 pattern with enough blocking that WAR stays east and the western ridge stays west and we get some warmth of short duration and a number of cold front passages. I am leaning "yes" but confidence is not high. It just takes a lot this late in the season to get us into the duration of heat that the European model has been suggesting the passed 2 runs.

WX/PT

[lee59]

Yea it looks like the models are backing off for the real warmth over the next week here in the northeast. Looks mostly 70s and 80s for the next week or so, for daytime highs.

[Dan76]

Hmmm     

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging  74degs.(66/83) or +5.

Month to date is  73.8[+1.6].         Should be 73.9[+2.9] by the 22nd.

Reached 86 here yesterday.

Yes, but the ENS. just has general BN pressure along the whole EC at that time.       In the running, I guess:

Today:  78-84, wind nw.-breezy, m. sunny, 64 tomorrow AM.

64*(74%RH) here at 7am.       66* at 9am.     70* at 11am.        79* at 3pm.      80* at 3:30pm.      Reached 81* at 5pm.        77* at 8pm.

[Brian5671]

33 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Yea it looks like the models are backing off for the real warmth over the next week here in the northeast. Looks mostly 70s and 80s for the next week or so, for daytime highs.

Makes sense...that was an extreme solution-days of 90's....

[SACRUS]

65 / 56 here and a gorgeous stretch of weather the next 2 days.  Dry, bright sunshine, window open weather through Fri (9/16). Warmup 9/16 as rigge builds back into the east.  Latest runs focus the ridge more south and into the Mississippi Valley so the blast of furnace like heat which was projected north of the area now is aimed into the area.  So with that heat potential starting Sun (9/18) through Fri (9/22) especially in the warmer spots..  Peak heat has 850s in the ?18c range by Tue (9/20) and Wed (9/21) / Thu . 

 

Beyond that front is being seen by later next week Fri (9/23) into next weekend. Overall warm end of the month and last 10 days.  Ridge returns by start of next month n the way beyond - watching tropical antics as well.

[SACRUS]

35 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Makes sense...that was an extreme solution-days of 90's....

Think we still see 90s especially in the warmer spots Tue- Thu period, stray one on Mon off chance.  Ridge balloons in the TX / OK area and surge of heat building into the Plains pushes into the area by Tue / Wed.   Beyond there by next Fri 9/23 strong front and cooler next weekend as its being forecast now.  

[psv88]

Beautiful morning. 60 to start the day and 70 now. 

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, Dan76 said:

Hmmm     

Good thing in 256 hours/10-11 days we can lock that up. 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

51 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Think we still see 90s especially in the warmer spots Tue- Thu period, stray one on Mon off chance.  Ridge balloons in the TX / OK area and surge of heat building into the Plains pushes into the area by Tue / Wed.   Beyond there by next Fri 9/23 strong front and cooler next weekend as its being forecast now.  

I doubt it at this point. I think the latest maps are more showing low-mid 80s with perhaps one day of mid 80s to near 90 (looks like the 21st). Then the pattern seems to revert to the June pattern of keeping the warmth and the heat to our west and we actually do get into more of a autumn-like pattern with a series of cold fronts. I'm not saying we will have seen the last days of the warmth/heat for the season, but we're close to it and maybe the se ridge or a piece of the western ridge pops in for a day sometime in October. 

WX/PT

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Good thing in 256 hours/10-11 days we can lock that up. 

We need something to track

[Volcanic Winter]

Good, I’ve had enough 90+ for one year. Time to embrace beautiful fall weather where I can go outside without feeling like I’m walking through boiling soup. 

[Allsnow]

The days of 90’s on the gfs was just the gfs doing gfs things. It will be warm, probably a day or two of 90 at ewr 

[MJO812]

36 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Good, I’ve had enough 90+ for one year. Time to embrace beautiful fall weather where I can go outside without feeling like I’m walking through boiling soup. 

Agree

Time for hoodie weather 

[Tatamy]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Good thing in 256 hours/10-11 days we can lock that up. 

This system will be a dying tropical storm as it moves through the area as shown on this run with the heaviest rains to the south and west.

 

[rclab]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

We need something to track

Good morning Anthony. I’m just trying to keep track of your avatars. Stay well, as always …..

[SnoSki14]

GFS really firing up the tropical threats

[CIK62]

That's more like it.     This is a fast mover.

 

This is the 24 Hour Rain, but it really falls in just 12 Hours:

[Wxoutlooksblog]

8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

GFS really firing up the tropical threats

Quite a fun run after the autumn-like treats of 00Z. The way to get a hurricane up the coast, put an upper low over the upper mid west, build WAR on top of the hurricane blocking it so it can't' escape, and have enough ridging under it to allow it to gain latitude. And here you go. Now prior to the madness, GFS does build WAR back in from the south and east giving us a day or two of 90+ heat. GGEM is a little diffferent but not much. We wait for King Euro to speak.

WX/PT

[Wxoutlooksblog]

[Wxoutlooksblog]

Actually, the GGEM depicts a far weaker tropical disturbance which is more suppressed and never gains latitude. We just sit uneventfully with a split ridge, a day or two of borderline warmth/heat.

WX/PT

 

[TriPol]

Now imagine if that hurricane hit a retrograding low and the two combined...

[SnoSki14]

GFS ends with a weenie trough to end September. How JB like 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

GEFS no WAR no Cane. And that's how this works. If you do not have a classic WAR a hurricane in the southwest Atlantic is unlikely to become a major factor.

WX/PT

[Wxoutlooksblog]

Things to look for this afternoon. Over the summer, the EPS was the leading model in forecasting the heat. It beat the operational Euro by a lot. If we're going to get that ridge to build in, the chances are we'll have to see it forecast on the EPS and the European model. The Euro may be a run cycle or two later in showing it but as of now keep in mind, the EPS does not really show a good WAR building in. That will probably have to change and it's something to look for. The GEPS does show the ridge building in but this season, the GEPS has had a tendency to lock in solutions which adjusted abruptly at closer range. So IMO the EPS is most important to watch for at this time.

WX/PT

[Volcanic Winter]

It’s been a while since we’ve had a Great Atlantic Hurricane or LI Express type powerful storm chug up the coast right in the pocket offshore NJ. What was the last major storm like that in the area, Bob despite being further east? I’m struggling to recall other recent storms with similar tracks and decent intensity. 
 

Would be “fun” to track and experience, but would certainly do a lot of damage nowadays. 
 

And wasn’t there a powerful fast moving potential ~ cat 4 that barreled right up along the western border of NJ in the early 1800’s? Remember reading about that one. Wonder if modern SST’s would modulate the likelihood of another event like that. IIRC it was able to retain such intensity due to unusually fast forward speed. 
 

Sandy was so unusual in how a lot of us were in the right front quadrant for a change. 

[Tatamy]

34 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

It’s been a while since we’ve had a Great Atlantic Hurricane or LI Express type powerful storm chug up the coast right in the pocket offshore NJ. What was the last major storm like that in the area, Bob despite being further east? I’m struggling to recall other recent storms with similar tracks and decent intensity. 
 

Would be “fun” to track and experience, but would certainly do a lot of damage nowadays. 
 

And wasn’t there a powerful fast moving potential ~ cat 4 that barreled right up along the western border of NJ in the early 1800’s? Remember reading about that one. Wonder if modern SST’s would modulate the likelihood of another event like that. IIRC it was able to retain such intensity due to unusually fast forward speed. 
 

Sandy was so unusual in how a lot of us were in the right front quadrant for a change. 

List of known / suspected hurricanes / tropical cyclones that affected the New York Region in the 1600's / 1700's / 1800's.  

List of New York hurricanes

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Track map of all storms known to have made landfall in the state of New York

Eighty-five tropical or subtropical cyclones have affected the state of New York since the 17th century. The state of New York is located along the East Coast of the United States, in the Northeastern portion of the country. The strongest of these storms was the 1938 New England hurricane, which struck Long Island as a Category 3 storm on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane scale. Killing more than 60 people, it was also the deadliest. Tropical cyclones have affected the state primarily in September but have also hit during every month of the hurricane season, June through November. Tropical cyclones rarely make landfall on the state, although it is common for remnants of tropical cyclones to produce heavy rainfall and flooding.

Contents

• 1Before 1800
• 21800–1899
• 31900–1949
• 41950–1974
• 51975–1999
• 62000–2009
• 72010–2019
• 82020–present
• 9Listed by month
• 10Deadly storms
• 11See also
• 12References
• 13External links

Before 1800[edit]

• Between 1278 and 1438: A major hurricane struck the modern-day New York/New Jersey area.^[1]
• August 25, 1635: A hurricane that is reported to have tracked parallel to the East Coast impacts New England and New York, although it remains unknown if any damage occurred.^[2]
• September 8, 1667: A 'severe storm' is reported in Manhattan and is reported to be a continuation of a powerful hurricane which affected the Mid-Atlantic.^[2]
• October 29, 1693: The Great Storm of 1693 causes severe damage on Long Island, and is reported to create the Fire Island Cut as a result of the coast-changing storm surge and waves.^[2][3]
• September 23, 1785: Several large ships crash into Governors Island as a result of powerful waves which are reported to have been generated by a tropical cyclone.^[3]
• August 19, 1788: A hurricane strikes New York City or Long Island and is reported to have left the west side of the Battery "laid in ruins" after severe flooding occurs.^[3]

1800–1899[edit]

 

Estimated track of the 1821 Norfolk and Long Island hurricane

• October 9, 1804: Heavy snow falls in Eastern New York peaking at 30 inches (75 cm) as a hurricane tracks northward along the East Coast and becomes extratropical, as cold air fed into the system.^[4]
• September 5, 1815: A hurricane tracks over North Carolina and parallels the East Coast before producing a heavy rainstorm in New York.^[5]
• September 24, 1815: Several hundred trees fall and the majority of the fruit was stripped off apple trees just prior to harvesting time after a hurricane makes landfall on Long Island.^[6]
• September 16, 1816: A possible hurricane strikes New York City, but damage remains unknown.^[2]
• August 9, 1817: A tropical storm produces heavy rainfall in New York City and Long Island.^[2]
• September 3, 1821: The 1821 Norfolk and Long Island hurricane results in severe damage on Long Island and is accompanied by storm surge of 13 feet (4 m). High wind causes a ship to crash on Long Island killing 17 people.^[7]
• June 4, 1825: A hurricane moves off the East Coast and tracks south of New York causing several ship wrecks, and killing seven people.^[3]
• August 27, 1827: High tides are reported in New York City which are caused by a hurricane offshore.^[8]
• August 1, 1830: A hurricane passes to the east of New York and produces gale-force winds to New York City and Long Island.^[9]
• October 4, 1841: Gale–force winds affect New York City as a hurricane tracks north along the East Coast of the United States. Damage is estimated at $2 million (1841 USD, $41 million 2007 USD).^[10]
• October 13, 1846: The Great Havana Hurricane of 1846 tracks inland, causing some damage to New York City.^[3]
• October 6, 1849: Severe structural damage occurs in New York City and Long Island with the passage of a hurricane to the east.^[3]
• July 19, 1850: A hurricane destroys a Coney Island bath house and causes heavy rain, although damage is unknown.^[3] This storm destroyed the ship Elizabeth off Fire Island and drowned American transcendentalist Margaret Fuller.
• August 24, 1850: A storm that is reported to be a hurricane affects New York and New England although there is no known damage.^[2]
• September 9, 1854: A hurricane brushes the East Coast from Florida to New England causing rain on Long Island.^[3]
• September 16, 1858: Low barometric pressure of 28.87 inches mercury at Sag Harbor is reported, and is thought to be associated with a tropical cyclone which causes no known damage.^[3]
• September 6, 1869: A category 3 hurricane makes landfall in Rhode Island and brushes Long Island, which is affected by rain, although minimal damage resulted from the storm.^[3]
• October 28, 1872: A tropical storm passes over New York City and Long Island.^[11]
• October 1, 1874: New York City and the Hudson Valley receives rainfall after a minimal tropical storm tracked over Eastern New York.^[11]
• September 19, 1876: The remnants of the San Felipe hurricane track over western New York State, although damage is unknown.^[11]
• October 24, 1878: The state is affected by tropical storm-force winds and heavy rain with the passage of a hurricane, which made landfall in Virginia.^[11][12]
• August 22, 1888: A tropical storm tracks over New York City before tracking north along the East Coast of the United States.^[11]
• August 24, 1893: Hog Island is washed away by strong storm surge associated with a tropical storm of unknown strength.^[3] According to HURDAT, this was a Category 1 hurricane that struck the western end of the Rockaway Peninsula, passing through Brooklyn as a weakening hurricane. Manhattan Island saw gale-force winds to 56 mph.
• August 29, 1893: | Sea Islands hurricane moves thorough the Hudson Valley as a tropical storm.^[13] Lives were lost in the Rockaways and when tow boats were destroyed at various points along the Hudson River. Roofs, structures, boats and crops were destroyed or damaged from Brooklyn to as far west as Dunkirk. Winds of 54 and 57 MPH recorded in New York and Albany respectively.^[14][15]
• October 10, 1894: 10 People were killed and 15 injured at 74 Monroe Street in Manhattan when winds blew a building under construction onto a tenement crushing it. Extensive damage in the NYC and Long Island to telegraph lines, trees and boats docked on shore. Storm formed over Gulf of Mexico as a Category 3 weakened over land in the Southeast and re strengthened to a Category 1 over the Chesapeake Bay before striking Long Island.^[16][17]

[lee59]

1 hour ago, Volcanic Winter said:

It’s been a while since we’ve had a Great Atlantic Hurricane or LI Express type powerful storm chug up the coast right in the pocket offshore NJ. What was the last major storm like that in the area, Bob despite being further east? I’m struggling to recall other recent storms with similar tracks and decent intensity. 
 

Would be “fun” to track and experience, but would certainly do a lot of damage nowadays. 
 

And wasn’t there a powerful fast moving potential ~ cat 4 that barreled right up along the western border of NJ in the early 1800’s? Remember reading about that one. Wonder if modern SST’s would modulate the likelihood of another event like that. IIRC it was able to retain such intensity due to unusually fast forward speed. 
 

Sandy was so unusual in how a lot of us were in the right front quadrant for a change. 

The last hurricane to take a path up the east coast and strike Long Island was Gloria in 1985. Since then tropical storms have made similar paths but none were classified as hurricanes when they hit our area.