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Wake me Up....when September Ends....


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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Crisp night in NE CT.  Feels wonderful.  Different type of blue.

Saw MVL at home made it to 39F and nearest PWS was 39.6F (ode to MPM).

Totally different like those Arctic mornings in winter. Visibility 100s of miles. Nice vacation for you.

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

That cutoff will be all over the place on models.

It's a barely a cut-off ...    Technically it is, but it cuts one contour - 582 no less.   We've been 95 degrees under that non-hydrostatic depth, and here?  we're using it to ignite a 2"   24-hr cumulative rain on the EPS? 

Plus the moving around as you say?

I was pretty sure - as we all were ( or should have been) - that the Euro was over-assessing that scenario it had drowned the region in.  I still think the whole thing could normalize further. 

Fwiw ( no much perhaps ...) but the GGEM has scattered nuisance convection dappled throughout the MA/ NE regions, trending south as the high eventually takes over.  

I think it'll all come down to how that mid level tuck goes on.  It doesn't seem to be that there is real S/W material being sunk into that eastern OV, but mainly this is an over-the-top 500 mb ridge that back-calves out the flow and creates more of a weakens there.  The Euro does have just enough of an amplitude bias in that D5-7 range ( which that was at the time it Noah'ed the region yesterday) to wonder. 

Pro: There's likely to be a theta-e pooling scenario from Monday into Tuesday, either way.  And a low level flow that is likely to orchestrate into a longish easterly fetch along the BC axis, with tendencies for more of SSE convergence from S of the front.  It doesn't take much trigger and where it rains it may need rad mode settings to see the dump.  

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1 hour ago, Whineminster said:

Frost. What did they get, like a month long growing season lol?

Might not be far off.  Our shortest frost-free season in Fort Kent was only 44 days in 1978, as parts of ours and our neighbors' garden got singed on July 31.  The late August added a hard freeze, with mornings at 28 and 29.

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24 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's a barely a cut-off ...    Technically it is, but it cuts one contour - 582 no less.   We've been 95 degrees under that non-hydrostatic depth, and here?  we're using it to ignite a 2"   24-hr cumulative rain on the EPS? 

Plus the moving around as you say?

I was pretty sure - as we all were ( or should have been) - that the Euro was over-assessing that scenario it had drowned the region in.  I still think the whole thing could normalize further. 

Fwiw ( no much perhaps ...) but the GGEM has scattered nuisance convection dappled throughout the MA/ NE regions, trending south as the high eventually takes over.  

I think it'll all come down to how that mid level tuck goes on.  It doesn't seem to be that there is real S/W material being sunk into that eastern OV, but mainly this is an over-the-top 500 mb ridge that back-calves out the flow and creates more of a weakens there.  The Euro does have just enough of an amplitude bias in that D5-7 range ( which that was at the time it Noah'ed the region yesterday) to wonder. 

Pro: There's likely to be a theta-e pooling scenario from Monday into Tuesday, either way.  And a low level flow that is likely to orchestrate into a longish easterly fetch along the BC axis, with tendencies for more of SSE convergence from S of the front.  It doesn't take much trigger and where it rains it may need rad mode settings to see the dump.  

There is definitely a signal for a narrow  axis to get heavy rains based on what you said above. Just has that look. My guess is probably Monday as the boundary sets up and doesn’t move much. 

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