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Tracking the Tropics


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Since moving to FL. I've experienced several Tropical systems luckily; I'm located well inland and not taken a direct (severe) hit per se. 89mph. has been the highest recorded wind speed. I moved 2 yrs. ago down-the-street. Previous dwelling was a hand-build log structure, could and will withstand Category 4 for many years to come. I outfitted with a generator, new roof, a pool the buyer purchased a special home. Moved to an expansive property (10 acres) surrounded by cut pasture with few trees. House is brick circa '78, 2400sq ft. All because I chased some tail, that Beast-of-burden is long gone thankfully...anywho... my health has prevented me from enjoying all the new place has to offer.

The GFS has been consistent trending W for several runs.
The EURO has been steadfast S and E with slight adjustments to the track W.
Given the timeframe and the storm has finally formed the BADBOYS seem to be coming to a compromise.
A W coast scrapper? Still time to prepare, still time for the models to (models to do what models do) slight E track trend on the GFS, slight W track on the EURO.
ROOSTA ON WATCH. 

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2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

It's funny all the globals have Cat 2/3 at LF while all the Hurricane models take Ian down to TS force at LF

The globals have depicted hostile conditions on approach to the US mainland really since the tropical wave was first approaching the windward islands.  Seems like chasers are always way more impressed by strengthening storms than rapidly weakening ones regardless of how strong they are coming in.  This could be the opposite of a Charley or a Michael.

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24 minutes ago, radarman said:

The globals have depicted hostile conditions on approach to the US mainland really since the tropical wave was first approaching the windward islands.  Seems like chasers are always way more impressed by strengthening storms than rapidly weakening ones regardless of how strong they are coming in.  This could be the opposite of a Charley or a Michael.

Seems like there will be a substantial amount of shear with the strong trough just off to the north. I would think the two biggest concerns are going to be storm surge and maybe rainfall/flooding. Looks like the system could slow down quite a bit too. Wouldn't be surprised to see a small area of 15-20'' of rain.

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48 minutes ago, radarman said:

The globals have depicted hostile conditions on approach to the US mainland really since the tropical wave was first approaching the windward islands.  Seems like chasers are always way more impressed by strengthening storms than rapidly weakening ones regardless of how strong they are coming in.  This could be the opposite of a Charley or a Michael.

Euro is a beast with 2 foot rain totals as well near Tampa

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