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August 2022


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Temperatures again rose into the upper 80s and lower 90s across much of the region today. Tomorrow will see temperatures peak. Temperatures will rise well into the 90s across the region with some spots approaching or reaching 100°.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal.

In addition, in the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 50% of the following July cases were warmer than normal. 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around July 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.18°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the fall.

The SOI was +25.49 (old record: +25.06, 1998).

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.168 today.

On August 1 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.931 (RMM). The July 31-adjusted amplitude was 0.680 (RMM).

 

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1 hour ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

Please don’t tell me we’re in for another clunker this winter.:(

Snowfall for us always comes down to how much blocking we get. Models aren’t very good at forecasting blocking beyond 1-2 weeks unless we get a major SSW. So we often have to wait until winter starts to get an idea of how the blocking and snowfall situation will work out. The weird thing about this rare 3rd year La Niña is that it didn’t follow a strong to super El Niño like after 72-73 and 97-98. 

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-01668-1

The weird thing about it, says L’Heureux, is that this prolonged La Niña, unlike previous triple dips, hasn’t come after a strong El Niño, which tends to build up a lot of ocean heat that takes a year or two to dissipate1. “I keep wondering, where’s the dynamics for this?” says L’Heureux.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Snowfall for us always comes down to how much blocking we get. Models aren’t very good at forecasting blocking beyond 1-2 weeks unless we get a major SSW. So we often have to wait until winter starts to get an idea of how the blocking and snowfall situation will work out. The weird thing about this rare 3rd year La Niña is that it didn’t follow a strong to super El Niño like after 72-73 and 97-98. 

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-01668-1

The weird thing about it, says L’Heureux, is that this prolonged La Niña, unlike previous triple dips, hasn’t come after a strong El Niño, which tends to build up a lot of ocean heat that takes a year or two to dissipate1. “I keep wondering, where’s the dynamics for this?” says L’Heureux.

I wonder if this is related to the multi decadal PDO/PNA cycle which has likely gone to the negative state? Unfortunately we’re due for a lousy late 90s like stretch of winters. And likely amplified by the warming climate. We actually lucked out last winter especially on LI with the good January. But as long as this Nina sticks around, there’s a greater likelihood that we see inland tracks and lousier outcomes here. 

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https://www.npr.org/2022/08/03/1115378385/tonga-volcano-stratosphere-water-warming

Tonga's volcano sent tons of water into the stratosphere. That could warm the Earth

Earlier large volcanic eruptions have affected climate, but they usually cool temperatures, because they send light-scattering aerosols into the stratosphere. Those aerosols act as a sort of massive layer of sunscreen. But since water vapor traps heat, the Tongan eruption could temporarily raise temperatures a bit, the researchers said.

It normally takes around 2-3 years for sulfate aerosols from volcanoes to fall out of the stratosphere. But the water from the Jan. 15 eruption could take 5-10 years to fully dissipate.

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Morning thoughts…

It will be mostly sunny and very warm. High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 90s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 93°

Newark: 98°

Philadelphia: 97°

Very warm to occasionally hot weather will continue into the weekend.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 84.5°; 15-Year: 85.2°

Newark: 30-Year: 86.0°; 15-Year: 87.1°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 87.0°; 15-Year: 87.6°

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10 hours ago, jm1220 said:

I wonder if this is related to the multi decadal PDO/PNA cycle which has likely gone to the negative state? Unfortunately we’re due for a lousy late 90s like stretch of winters. And likely amplified by the warming climate. We actually lucked out last winter especially on LI with the good January. But as long as this Nina sticks around, there’s a greater likelihood that we see inland tracks and lousier outcomes here. 

This is a new type of -PDO with the rest of the Pacific much warmer than during our last 3rd year La Niña Julys. 
 

New -PDO

Old -PDO
72E8392C-5E9C-4321-B779-67915E8F884B.png.1e3bad9a2543c4dbe2d582f7c93d74b6.png

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The next 8 days are averaging  87degs.(78/96)  or +10.

Reached 84 here yesterday.

Today:  90-95, wind w. to s., m.sunny, 78 tomorrow AM.

Slight chance of a nearby TD around the 12th:

1660348800-mZNEBuGO12E.png

76*(85%RH) here at 7am.        80* at 10am.        81*(81%RH) at Noon.        84* at 5pm.

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Expansion of D1 drought from Central NJ out across the Long Island South Shore.


20FB438A-C897-4F91-80A7-5B2F37DDE21D.thumb.png.f6d77f9d57349303cf2aea646ecb0618.png
 

Short-term moderate and severe drought continued to expand, especially in the New York City area, New Jersey, and New England, where rainfall was sparse and temperatures were a few degrees above normal. Water use restrictions and farming impacts were becoming common across these regions as dry conditions continued another week.

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12 minutes ago, psv88 said:

After this week we begin the slow step down towards fall. It will still be hot but the upper 90s are done after this week. The peak of summer is wrapping up 

I'm gonna say no. There's plenty of evidence to suggest more strong heat after a mild down 

Maybe it won't feel as intense since the sun won't be as strong 

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3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'm gonna say no. There's plenty of evidence to suggest more strong heat after a mild down 

Maybe it won't feel as intense since the sun won't be as strong 

It will be hot. Be the peak heat of the summer is likely over after this week. By the 2nd week of August we usually begin to cool at it is 

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