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1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

2002 was a dry/hot summer and 2002-03 was a very good winter but it was also a moderate Nino, this will almost certainly be another Nina. So I think many other factors will determine how good quality the winter will be. 

Yeah there doesn’t seem to be a huge correlation. 88 95 99 were all dry and those winters were snowless, very snowy, snowless respectively and all La Niñas 

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Not much correlation between a top 10 driest July and August at Islip and snowfall the following season. But you can see why the lawns are so brown. Rare combination of warmest and driest June and July on record. 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Total Precipitation Jul 1 to Aug 31
Snowfall for the following season
1 2022-08-31 1.94 ?
2 2005-08-31 2.35 36.0
3 1972-08-31 2.45 4.5
4 1966-08-31 2.91 52.4
5 2015-08-31 3.22 41.4
6 1980-08-31 3.41 20.8
7 1968-08-31 3.51 43.5
8 1998-08-31 3.53 19.4
- 1974-08-31 3.53 14.5
9 1993-08-31 3.58 37.0
10 1981-08-31 3.76 35.4


 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Jul 1 to Aug 31
Missing Count
1 2022-08-31 77.4 1
2 2016-08-31 77.1 0
3 2020-08-31 76.5 0
4 2018-08-31 76.1 0
- 2010-08-31 76.1 0
5 1980-08-31 76.0 0
6 2019-08-31 75.9 0
- 2011-08-31 75.9 0
7 1999-08-31 75.8 0
8 2015-08-31 75.7 0
9 2005-08-31 75.6 0
10 1998-08-31 75.5 0

 

 

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2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

2002 was a dry/hot summer and 2002-03 was a very good winter but it was also a moderate Nino, this will almost certainly be another Nina. So I think many other factors will determine how good quality the winter will be. 

I'm not sure the standard ENSO state applies anymore. 

There's been a disconnect for several seasons now

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17 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'm not sure the standard ENSO state applies anymore. 

There's been a disconnect for several seasons now

There are so many marine heatwaves that they compete with each other and have often overridden the ENSO signal unless it’s strong. The N Atlantic right now screams +NAO because of the cooler water near Greenland and warm water off the East Coast and Canada, but much of our weather is defined by the Pacific. Hopefully we can finally get out from this Nina background state and develop a good STJ for the winter, that will probably make it better for us vs relying on Miller B storms and +AO often forcing unfavorable tracks. 

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The last day of August is averaging  78(70/86) or +5.

Month to date is  79.4[+3.3].         August should end at 79.3[+3.3].

The first 10 days of September are averaging  78(70/86) +5 or +6.

Reached 84 here yesterday.  

Today:    81-86, wind w., variable clouds.

72*(92*RH) at 7am      79*(60%RH) at Noon.       81*(52%RH) at 2pm.        84*(40%RH) at 4pm.      Reached 87*(34%RH) at 5pm.

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36 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

There are so many marine heatwaves that they compete with each other and have often overridden the ENSO signal unless it’s strong. The N Atlantic right now screams +NAO because of the cooler water near Greenland and warm water off the East Coast and Canada, but much of our weather is defined by the Pacific. Hopefully we can finally get out from this Nina background state and develop a good STJ for the winter, that will probably make it better for us vs relying on Miller B storms and +AO often forcing unfavorable tracks. 

Always prefer a favorable Pacific look myself.  Tends to stick around and offer up more chances since the conditions can stick around awhile.  No idea how we get out of this NINA state for the upcoming winter unless as you say other marine warmth anomalies alter things.  

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New York City had a mean temperature of 79.4° in August, which was 3.3° above normal. Newark finished summer 2022 with a mean temperature of 79.2° (but was a few hundredths of a degree below the 1993 record).

Above normal temperatures will likely continue through at least much of the first week of September.

An intense heatwave that will continue into early September is under way in parts of the western U.S. and Canada. High temperatures today included:

Boise: 106° (old record: 102°, 2004) ***latest 106° on record***
Burbank: 112° (old record: 108°, 2017) ***new all-time record***
Death Valley, CA: 123°
Denver: 94°
Salt Lake City: 102° (old record: 98°, 1950)
Woodland Hills, CA: 112° (old record: 111°, 1998)

Boise and Salt Lake City could see temperatures approach or reach September records. Death Valley will likely see multiple 120° or hotter days.

In the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The August ECMWF forecast shows a warmer than normal September in the Northeast. This warmth would be consistent with the ongoing warming that has been occurring in September.

On August 18, the SOI fell to -32.90. Since 1991, there were 8 cases when the SOI fell to -30 or below during the August 10-25 period. That outcome has often preceded a wetter than normal September in parts of the Northeast. Mean September rainfall figures for those 8 cases: Boston: 4.38" (normal: 3.55"); New York City: 5.08" (normal: 4.31"); and, Philadelphia: 5.12" (normal: 4.40"). Very wet years outnumbered very dry ones by a 2:1 ratio in Boston and 3:1 ratio in both New York City and Philadelphia. 63% of cases saw at least one day with 1" or more rainfall in Boston. 88% saw at least one day with 1" or more in New York City and Philadelphia. 50% of those cases saw at least one day with 2" or more daily rainfall in Philadelphia. In sum, the SOI may be offering a signal that there will be some drought relief for the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions in September. The recent passage of the MJO through Phase 2 at a very high amplitude (1.500 or above) during late August has introduced greater uncertainty.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around August 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.72°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.93°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was +18.88 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.471 today.

On August 29 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.865 (RMM). The August 28-adjusted amplitude was 1.930 (RMM).

 

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If it wasn't for the 1st of August being below 80 degrees, ISP would currently have it's longest run of consecutive 80+ degree days at 63 days. August 2022 was the warmest August on record at ISP as well.

Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature >= 80
for Islip Area, NY (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Run Length
Ending Date
Period of record: 1963-09-05 to 2022-08-31
1 41 2010-08-11
2 33 2022-07-31
- 33 1966-07-29
4 30 2022-08-31
5 27 2019-07-22
6 25 1988-08-18
7 24 1995-08-05
8 22 2015-08-09
- 22 2012-07-18
- 22 1998-07-30
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Jun: 80.6/59.0 (69.8) - 4.88”

July: 88.3/67.1 (77.8) - 3.72”

Aug: 89.2/66.8 (78.0) - 2.00”

Met Summer - 86.1/64.4 (75.3) - 10.60”

I haven’t checked but I’m fairly certain that this was the warmest July and August for my PWS, which has been operational since 2018.

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CLIFTON’S CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR AUGUST 2022

The average temperature for the month was 79.0 degrees which was well above normal and it was the warmest August since my records began in 1973. We had a record 17 days of 90 degrees or higher for the month. The highest temperature was 97 degrees set on the 4th, 8th and 9th. The lowest temperature was 60 on the 14th. It was the 10th driest August with only 1.93″ accumulating. Note: The period from August 21st through Sep 2nd only 1.14″ of rain this year while the same period last year we recorded 15.19″ of rain mainly due to Hurricanes Henri and Ida.

CLIFTON’S CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR THE SUMMER MONTHS

It was the 4th warmest summer since 1973 and the 7th driest.

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  • 3 weeks later...
On 8/31/2022 at 8:30 AM, jm1220 said:

2002 was a dry/hot summer and 2002-03 was a very good winter but it was also a moderate Nino, this will almost certainly be another Nina. So I think many other factors will determine how good quality the winter will be. 

I loved this summer I hope we get many more like this.  Really tired of all the rainy buggy humid summers and it's so nice to get a dry/hot summer again.

 

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On 8/31/2022 at 7:01 AM, bluewave said:

Warmest summer and 2nd driest at Newark with a day to go. All our other stations are I the top 5 for warmth. With several also among the driest summers. So one of the most significant shutdowns of the tropics in the Atlantic which we heavily rely on for summer rainfall. The Plains drought ridge also played an important role. 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2022 79.2 1
- 1993 79.2 0
2 2010 78.7 0
3 1994 78.5 0
4 2021 78.3 0
5 2011 78.0 0
6 2005 77.8 0
7 1988 77.7 0
8 2020 77.6 0
- 2016 77.6 0
- 1973 77.6 0
9 1999 77.1 0


 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jun through Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Total Precipitation 
Missing Count
1 1966 4.46 0
2 2022 4.87 1
3 1949 5.68 0
4 1957 5.69 0
5 1965 5.83 0
6 1963 6.18 0
7 1993 6.20 0
8 1953 6.47 0
9 2010 6.74 0


 

 

Remember what I said to you last Spring....I felt like we were going to turn the corner back towards dry summers and here we are.  Looks like the AMO going towards its cool phase played a big part in this? It's going to be nice to get into more of an 80s to early 90s kind of summer pattern again!

 

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