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1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Nam now brings us rain....on saturday

can we just put it out of its misery already 

Would not surprise me if sat / sun are more cloudy and spotty showers with cut off over the northeast.

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1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Nam now brings us rain....on saturday

can we just put it out of its misery already 

Is the NAM supposed to be shut down soon?  I thought I remembered reading that, but now can't find it.

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11 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Is the NAM supposed to be shut down soon?  I thought I remembered reading that, but now can't find it.

Development was frozen on the NAM after the March 2017 update. So it has fallen behind models like the HRRR and RGEM which have had major upgrades over the last 5 years. Building a new model to take its place is very challenging. The one area that the NAM seems to do better at is detecting the 750-950mb warm layer in winter storms. So it handles the changeover from snow to sleet and rain pretty well. 
 

NAM development was frozen after the March 2017 upgrade, and RAP/HRRR development with the WRF-ARW model will cease after the RAPv5/HRRRv4 upgrade in 2020. However, operational execution of these modeling and associated DA systems will continue until comparable FV3-based systems are able to give similar performance.

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41 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

what a beautiful day it is today. what a different feel.. cooler light northerly breeze.i am happy real summer is over until next year!!

90 behind a cold front in august lol

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10 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

90 behind a cold front in august lol

Still working with 850 MB temps >15c for most part.  Today and tomorrow, pending on sun, could get the warmer / drier spots to 90, more into CNJ/NE NJ usual spots before the cooler air arrives later Thu.  While these next two days may over perform on high temps, the weekend could have a tendency to cloud up and under perform, perhaps monday and tuesday as well.

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Just now, SACRUS said:

Still working with 850 MB temps >15c for most part.  Today and tomorrow, pending on sun, could get the warmer / drier spots to 90, more into CNJ/NE NJ usual spots before the cooler air arrives later Thu.  While these next two days may over perform on high temps, the weekend could have a tendency to cloud up and under perform, perhaps monday and tuesday as well.

the lagging caa is partially why we did poorly with thunderstorms 

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35 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

No it's still very much summer. 86F now and probably making a run at 90 today. 

the heat we just endured fro days will not be coming back i do not think until next year...fingers crossed that  is what real summer means...

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2 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

even if we somehow did it 90 no comparison to yesterday with temps high 90's to low 100's in some places and dewpoints over 70.. it is a different feel today...

we used to get occasional summers where heat like that never came

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5 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

the heat we just endured fro days will not be coming back i do not think until next year...fingers crossed that  is what real summer means...

yep worst of it is over for the season in absolutes.   Hard to get 95+ as we move along and days get shorter and climo averages begin to drop 

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1 hour ago, nycwinter said:

what a beautiful day it is today. what a different feel.. cooler light northerly breeze.i am happy real summer is over until next year!!

And in just a few short weeks we’ll have the first official predictions of “winter cancelled” and then we can start looking ahead to next summer!!

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10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

LOL.   I already see some in the NE forum...

 

Yeah several posts today and a couple of seasonal forecasts.  It seems an early start to winter mode even for them, but probably because winter signals are grim at this stage.  I am not too optimistic but it's well early.  That block from a few weeks ago, we will need that to return, is my suspicion.  

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2 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Yeah several posts today and a couple of seasonal forecasts.  It seems an early start to winter mode even for them, but probably because winter signals are grim at this stage.  I am not too optimistic but it's well early.  That block from a few weeks ago, we will need that to return, is my suspicion.  

Most winters come down to whether blocking shows up...good luck trying to figure that out at this lead time...

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The record breaking warm pool is still there in the NW Atlantic. This has been associated with our first 7 warmer than normal winters in a row since the super El Nino in 15-16. So the main question now is whether we get blocking for more snowfall or a stronger PV and less snow. But that probably won’t be known until until we get close to the start of the winter.

 

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26 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

In other news the GFS has a big rain event early next week-some parts of New England get 3-5 inches of rain. Locally everyone here would get 1-2 inches verbatim.

Cmc and icon also. We really need the rain

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