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August Discussion/Obs


weatherwiz
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10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Sun should slowly work NW to SE today. Very Humid but with mid- upper 60’s vs mid- upper 70’s. Next remote chance of rain looks like middle or end of next week as WAR begins to build west  next weekend .SE Mass looks like they’ll get their own private rainstorm tomorrow morning. 

What model has a rainstorm here tomorrow? The only model showing anything is the gfs and that’s a brush of showers for the cape. Looks dry 

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This area essentially E of the Berks-Whites axis, and NE of NJ, is getting a very exaggerated relief by virtue of this BD air mass...

One that WPC does not analyze ..pretty much ever, which annoys me.   They have the standard synopsis stationary boundary with vaguely closable single contour waves along it, aligning mid PA to the off shore S of Boston, but there is clearly and definitely an air mass type discontinuity in that nose of NE jet that is present this morning. 

Otherwise, I am looking at that NAM grid and it is clear that the synoptic realm we are still within, even on the N side of said stationary boundary...is still plenty warm.  The hydrostatic heights are still in the mid 570s dm range over LGA, and though sagging some...over 570 above Logan - despite the mid 60s F air temperatures there.  

The orb of the sun may be dimly visible as morning high def vis satellite loop reveals a very shallow lifting over the nose of that NE flow down over SW zones... where cloud elements then peal rapidly back NE over the top.   That's actually an unusual look to have that aggressive/low SW flow over the top of a 180 deg opposing surface jet/disconnected air mass.   Usually with BDs...that near BL flow has turned NW ...so this is a very shallow air mass. Probably no taller than 2500. For these reasons..probably this doesn't pack in for the whole day - it's just too thin and Aug 10 is still plenty hot sun.

 

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The other aspect that may be interesting ... I got to thinking, I distinctly recall recent buoy/station obs, like 44005 bobbing around the lower GOM, or 44098 ENE of Cape Ann, they were registering SSTs at an astounding mid 70s - I commented on this mid way through the heat wave, how - at least for me - I had never seen that kind of warmth around that geography.   Yet ...this air mass arrived from that direction, late last evening. Surely, a mid 70s marine boundary layer should be warmer than a BR 65 F chalk strata air mass.  So...I checked those buoys this morning and they have cooled markedly.   In fact, 44098 matches the air quality almost precisely... I mean, did this air cause those SSTS to flash colder  44098 went from 73 to 65 at some point when I was not looking over the past 48 hours 

...I can't imagine air can do that to the thermal storage capacity of the surface waters, that fast..  It almost seems that a thrust of cold water either upwelled or perhaps wind stressed the surface at convenient timing with this BD.  

I'm looking also at the general non-hydrostatic layout of both the 700 and 500 mb levels, and there really was only a vaguely discernible confluence going by N of Maine prior to setting this mass displacement off...so, it's weirdly over-achieving - if that makes any sense.  I feel sometimes like this corridor E of the Berks/Whites, from about mid Jersey to NS ...is like an atmospheric Bay Of Fundy.

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19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, summer's back is thankfully broken. I'm sure that we haven't seen the last of the 90s, but the worst is behind us.

It's fractured, but it hasn't reached Chris Sale severity yet.

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

End of the month is return to heat and humidity. Right into Torchtember.

Yeah, but by then we're ether side of 90F with regular humidity. I'll look forward to that weather then. I'm all set with the days and days of 100F+ heat indices.

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4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah, but by then we're ether side of 90F with regular humidity. I'll look forward to that weather then. I'm all set with the days and days of 100F+ heat indices.

If that flow is southerly we are 70+ dews. We’ll see. 

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47 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, summer's back is thankfully broken. I'm sure that we haven't seen the last of the 90s, but the worst is behind us.

Let's not rush things...

I realize summer aspects are not very well aligned with the majority/populace druthers ( lol ) of this forum ...But, it may be more apt to say, the recent heat wave's back is broken. 

Summer?   Not on August 10.  

Brief op ed on the pattern/summer going forward ...

I suspect the trough aspect that is about to incur along 90W will, like so many others both this summer, and since the GFS upgrades began parading out new versions like Pez candies in 2014 ... ( yeah, dubious beta testing), have proven exaggerated.  What I suspect is more likely, a weakness in the subtropical ridge.  It will have some minoring circuitous, meso-beta scaled S/Ws embedded, but not to the depth that many of those recent runs were selling. 

This may be true for the Euro as well, although these tech sources converge on that similar bias through different reasons. The Euro is already showing the relaxed trough at still 576+ to even 582 dm heights demarcating - that's pretty clearly a summer characteristic.  That's probably all this is - a summer trough/relaxation mode.  After?  I don't know if we return to the same look aloft and suffer some dimming variant of heat potential... I have seen/experienced big heat as late as Sept 10.

Anyway, I spoke a bit at length yesterday ... the notion of an EC paralleling deep layer flow - unknown strength but likely on the weaker side ... - probably sets up some sort of Bahama Blue type sky and air, after the initial trough thrust bobs down to about NYC, attenuating as it does... I mean it's not a huge leap to correct that way - the models are already leaning. 

It is largely a subjective notion, 'summer back break' ... but for me, that happens when the total synoptic scaffolding takes on the the first autumn vibe, with radiative cooling nights taking over the diurnal variation.  Something more like that...

Having said all that... I do suspect that we enter a tendency for +PNAP in autumn, its self, and faux the early winter by October/November again.

 

 

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51 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, summer's back is thankfully broken. I'm sure that we haven't seen the last of the 90s, but the worst is behind us.

Yup. Nice long break coming up which will allow folks to get stuff done and enjoy the outdoors. When the HHH comes back it won’t be as severe nor prolonged so we’ll manage. 

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