Typhoon Tip Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 45 minutes ago, weathafella said: Prepare for heat and dews. WAR is coming 2nd half of July. I think I'm onto the same aspects you might be seeing? ...Not sure I'm ready to bite on WAR obtruding from the E ( if so) like the classic look.. maybe. Problem is, the summer's so far not really behaving wrong wrt to all this higher latitude blocking - it's all fantastically complex, but the faster than normal polar jet and R-wave amplitude ( > than climo for mid summer) is actually a good fit for the easterly phase of the QBO. It flipped signs toward the end of 2021, ...and now it's penetrating through the 30hPa into the 50 as strengthening phase state. That's too bad it wasn't happening on say Nov 15 .. Anyway, that phase isn't really correlated as well with big subtropical ridge arc with a strong annular mode of the AO bottled up N. It's actually correlated to more relaxed AO's with tendencies to blocking and well... that seems to be biasing the summer thus far. All's well. That said, ... mid seasonal/radiative forcing may normalize the gradients ...temporarily/transiently offsetting all that. The idea of a shear axis evolving along ~ 90W with some WAR "could" fit into that/those sort of interlude(s). As that implies I don’t believe it would last… I think that’s why the GFS just keeps reloading Southeast Canada. There’s really less support for rising AAM. The upshot is that it would correlate well to an earlier winter seeing as these phases last for 20 months or whatever so will still be in a pretty strong easterly phase as we plunge through autumn. just poking the hornets nest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 38 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: "Lord....please send a plague style hail storm." Massive and razor sharp chunks of ice leveling structures and smiting nonbelievers? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 The 12z GEFs mean for the wtfc range, actually looks east of priors with the 500 mb isohypses anomaly distribution - .... woosh! lol... No, but I mean this: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 Back in Boothbay for 18th anniversary. What a COC daySent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 Yeah 12z GEFS were warmer again. Everything shifted a bit eastward it looked like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 12 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Massive and razor sharp chunks of ice leveling structures and smiting nonbelievers? Good afternoon WxW007. I’m amazed. The Reaper is a Met... Stay well, as always ….. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 47 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: Are their any tropical cyclones showing up on long range guidance for the East Coast? Gulf could be an area to watch next week...although I don't know what shear is like. Anyways GFS bringing some potential for big rains to southeast Texas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 When I see flips like that on the models within the medium-to-long range I take that as a precursor to a pattern change. Now this doesn't mean the heat builds in...pattern could change which favors an even deeper trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: When I see flips like that on the models within the medium-to-long range I take that as a precursor to a pattern change. Now this doesn't mean the heat builds in...pattern could change which favors an even deeper trough That's no where close to the 'mid-range' by convention though That's like in orbit around the extended ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: That's no where close to the 'mid-range' by convention though That's like in orbit around the extended ... Was just saying in general. But yeah that certainly is not mid-range. But I seriously hope that 12z GEFS verifies. Over-the-top heat and that pattern is likely to swing some MCS this way. 700 shows a subtle trough in the West so maybe we can get some EML advection around the top of the ridge too. I'm mostly fantasizing here but if you want such potential that is the look to make it happen...doesn't mean that it will though 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 7, 2022 Author Share Posted July 7, 2022 Maybe a shower/storm next Tuesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 19 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: Maybe a shower/storm next Tuesday? Drought stein digging in heels now for duration. Everyone just needs to hunker in 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 You gotta enjoy the dry weather though… plans never impacted by rain. Pristine evening wandering around the hills right now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 7, 2022 Author Share Posted July 7, 2022 27 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Drought stein digging in heels now for duration. Everyone just needs to hunker in Yeah, can't stress that enough. Very dry and increasing heat...thankfully some dews coming, maybe a few spots will get a shower or two in the next couple weeks. Hopefully everyone is prepared. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 21 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: Yeah, can't stress that enough. Very dry and increasing heat...thankfully some dews coming, maybe a few spots will get a shower or two in the next couple weeks. Hopefully everyone is prepared. Until the big cat 2 or higher cane LF up thru the CTRV in September which can help dent the drought to the west … we just dig in and hope for best , but prepare for worst 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 3 hours ago, Cyclone-68 said: Are their any tropical cyclones showing up on long range guidance for the East Coast? 2 hours ago, weatherwiz said: Gulf could be an area to watch next week...although I don't know what shear is like. Anyways GFS bringing some potential for big rains to southeast Texas. Any time you have a front draped like that during this boring time of year it’s worth a little attention, but the signal is weak at best right now. We’re about 3-4 weeks away from the pattern becoming much more favorable for TC genesis if the guidance is to be believed. The homebrew regions are warm, a niña seems a lock for the peak of the season, and the WAM is active which should mean plenty of good waves during CV season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 Hammer going Hammertime on dews. Long duration stretch starts Tuesday as Coc ks go into hibernation till mid Oct 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 Probably dewy straight through Christmas if we are going the route of hyperbole. You almost wonder if it’s just a straight 365 day stretch to be honest. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 Might never drop below 90/70 again... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Hammer going Hammertime on dews. Long duration stretch starts Tuesday as Coc ks go into hibernation till mid Oct October? It doesn’t even last until Friday. Not sure there’s anything to prevent the see-saw type pattern to continue. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 38 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Might never drop below 90/70 again... I may quit my job and open a talcum powder stand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 38 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Might never drop below 90/70 again... I’m burning in anticipation… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 1 minute ago, bristolri_wx said: October? It doesn’t even last until Friday. Not sure there’s anything to prevent the see-saw type pattern to continue. GEFs dews a week out? Good luck bro . Fight it if you want . Long hot summer locking in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 I'm not a space weather expert but looks like Aurora potential tonight. K index shows a storm is hitting right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 8, 2022 Share Posted July 8, 2022 55 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: GEFs dews a week out? Good luck bro . Fight it if you want . Long hot summer locking in That’s a map of 850mb temp anomalies. No dews on there. What it’s showing is another trough in the means swinging through behind the FROPA on Thursday. The EPS has it too, if we want to go the more data-based route over gut intuition. We can only make claims as well as the data presented at the time. It certainly will be hot and humid Tue/Wed as the TV graphic showed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 8, 2022 Share Posted July 8, 2022 8 minutes ago, powderfreak said: That’s a map of 850mb temp anomalies. No dews on there. What it’s showing is another trough in the means swinging through behind the FROPA on Thursday. The EPS has it too, if we want to go the more data-based route over gut intuition. We can only make claims as well as the data presented at the time. It certainly will be hot and humid Tue/Wed as the TV graphic showed. Man.. you just can’t resist . Good luck to you and yours 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 8, 2022 Share Posted July 8, 2022 Tuesday looks hot/humid ahead of the front 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted July 8, 2022 Share Posted July 8, 2022 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: GEFs dews a week out? Good luck bro . Fight it if you want . Long hot summer locking in Not sure about long since we almost halfway through July. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 8, 2022 Share Posted July 8, 2022 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Hammer going Hammertime on dews. Long duration stretch starts Tuesday as Coc ks go into hibernation till mid Oct Looks averaged near climo. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted July 8, 2022 Share Posted July 8, 2022 47 minutes ago, powderfreak said: That’s a map of 850mb temp anomalies. No dews on there. What it’s showing is another trough in the means swinging through behind the FROPA on Thursday. The EPS has it too, if we want to go the more data-based route over gut intuition. We can only make claims as well as the data presented at the time. It certainly will be hot and humid Tue/Wed as the TV graphic showed. Would you stop with those silly charts? No meteorologist worth his salt uses those... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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