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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The outflow boundary from the MCS may stall out across the area into tomorrow and influence where the sea breeze front sets up. So the actual high temperatures could be a nowcasters special. Seems like every warm up since late March has hit some kind of resistance.

the nam looks overdone with the mcs over long island/coastal new england

nam3km_ref_frzn_neus_11.png

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1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Latest nams keep north jersey below 90 and nyc/LI 70’s

Central Park, at least, should make a run at 90. Whether it reaches it is a different matter. 70s would represent a more than 3 sigma modeling error from one day out.

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Parts of the Middle Atlantic and Southeastern regions saw temperatures rise into the upper 80s and 90s today. Temperatures included:

Baltimore: 90°
Norfolk: 94°
Philadelphia: 87°
Raleigh: 96° (old record: 94°, 1938)
Richmond: 97° (old record: 96°, 1934)
Washington, DC: 89°
Wilmington, NC: 95° (old record: 94°, 2000)

That heat will expand into the northern Middle Atlantic region tomorrow. Some additional showers and thundershowers are likely overnight as the warm front pushes across the region.

Following the frontal passage, the warmest weather of the year so far is in store for the weekend for parts of the region. Areas on the immediate coastline where sea breezes occur may remain much cooler than interior sections. New York City and Newark could see the mercury rise into the upper 80s and lower 90s.

Overall, the second half of the month will likely be warmer than normal and there remains some possibility of an overall warm monthly outcome. The potential also exists for several very warm to perhaps hot days.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around May 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.03°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June.

The SOI was +15.34 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.530 today.

On May 18 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.281 (RMM). The May 17-adjusted amplitude was 1.264 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 62% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.7° (0.5° above normal).

 

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10 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

This was pretty lame when it pushed through the city, but the piece of the line scraping the south shore of LI looks pretty juicy!

Had very heavy rain here in Southwest Nassau but no winds. Had some thunder and lightning too.

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13 hours ago, gravitylover said:

Sorta. I was shoeless, shirtless and had all the windows (and roof) open. This was before I had cars with electric windows so I had to stop and run around the car closing stuff barefoot in heavy snow. It kinda sucked :) The 85° difference in an hour was pretty cool though ;)

It's why Rapid City and Spearfish fascinate me, they get all these extremes in a short time.

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Starting the day with dense fog around the area. So a continuation of the marine influence theme. The higher dewpoints will help to boost the heat indices. 
 

DE34250E-8432-440F-9CFB-B792599A8448.jpeg.265edecafae53606927614306e993fb3.jpeg

 

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