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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

It will be interesting to see if somebody in NJ can record their first 100° day in May on Saturday. Models have 850 mb temperatures around +21 C. This is about as high as we ever saw the 850s this early in the season.The temperature differential between low 70s  in Long Beach and upper 90s to near 100° in NJ is as extreme as it gets.


370399A6-B249-4F6C-AD16-2AF6D06BABE0.thumb.png.5bf5c5af32a09140a2289c1e1c23d287.png

062AD72F-F5FC-44C0-B6FA-1B73A572D0E1.thumb.png.f9bc563995899d1167b70f63b7f29801.png

6B51DF26-1CEB-457A-907A-2403892198F7.thumb.png.c4f1a0e355045ab3abfa61c20b0d3fa8.png

 

the temperature in NYC was 99 on May 19th 1962 after a very cool first half of the month...the temp was 96 on May 20th 1996 after a cool start to the month...both times it was the warmest temperature for the year with three days 89 or higher...it can get hot fast and hit 100 especially in todays environment...

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58 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Jesus this is gonna hit people hard. 

Just what so many don’t need with energy prices through the roof. Luckily I’m directly on the water on south shore LI 

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Newark NJ benchmark record highs...

72 on 1/06/2007...

74 on 1/26/1950...

80 on 2/21/2018...

82 on 3/09/2016

86 on 3/13/1990...

87 on 3/28/1945...

89 on 3/29/1945...

92 on 4/07/2010...

97 on 4/17/2002...

98 on 5/19/1962...

99 on 5/20/1996...

102 on 6/09/2011...

103 on 6/30/2021...

105 on 7/03/1966...

108 on 7/22/2011...

105 on 9/02/1953...

100 on 9/03/1993...

99 on 9/11/1983...

96 on 10/02/2019...

93 on 10/05/1941...

92 on 10/10/1949...

90 on 10/17/1938...

87 on 10/23/1947...

85 on 11/01/1950...

84 on 11/02/1950...

81 on 11/03/2003...

80 on 11/15/1993...

76 on 12/07/1998...

72 on 12/10/1946...

71 on 12/29/1984...

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24 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Let’s start pumping water temps too

These strong southerly flow days will do that quick. There’ll likely be an Ambrose Jet with 30+ mph gusts with that kind of contrast and cool temps on the south shore. Like two different worlds vs. Newark. 

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43 minutes ago, Rmine1 said:

Just what so many don’t need with energy prices through the roof. Luckily I’m directly on the water on south shore LI 

Eventually with enough onshore wind days building up the water temps, the seabreeze won’t cool it down after another month or so. It’ll keep temps down a little but pump the humidity up. So if anything it might feel hotter near the shore vs inland because of the higher dew points which are becoming much more common the last few summers. 

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26 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Welcome to summer. 80s will be the norm but 90F+ days will be around too 

People will be able to save money now since they won’t have to pay for weather model subscriptions to access the long range EPS.

 

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1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Eventually with enough onshore wind days building up the water temps, the seabreeze won’t cool it down after another month or so. It’ll keep temps down a little but pump the humidity up. So if anything it might feel hotter near the shore vs inland because of the higher dew points which are becoming much more common the last few summers. 

Agree, but I’ll take what I can. Even if that means losing beach days to the June gloom. 

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Showers and periods of rain are likely overnight into early tomorrow. Clouds will break later tomorrow and readings will climb into the upper 60s and lower 70s.

Afterward, the warmest weather of the year so far is in store for the weekend for parts of the region. Areas on the immediate coastline where sea breezes occur may remain much cooler than interior sections. New York City and Newark could see the mercury rise into the upper 80s and lower 90s.

Overall, the second half of the month will likely be warmer than normal and there remains some possibility of an overall warm monthly outcome. The potential also exists for several very warm to perhaps hot days.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around May 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.03°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June.

The SOI was +15.03 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.613 today.

On May 16 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.440 (RMM). The May 15-adjusted amplitude was 1.686 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 62% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.7° (0.5° above normal).

 

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Record May max temp at Philadelphia is 97 set during the epic 1991 torch. Heat came early & often that year, (21) 90 days before the start of calendar summer. (5) of those days were 95+ & (1) 100 day for good measure.

Since 1990 the avearge date of the 1st 90 at PHL is 5/23, 1st 95 average date is 6/26.

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Check back Monday and see how your favorite model made out.    As of latest runs available this evening.

Some color to go with the forecasts.      For the GFS:      Looks like 20*C+ briefly for the 850mb T:

1652896800-Vm7bpWdSz7U.png

         Sat/Sun

GFS    98,96

CMC   95,93

NDFD 92,90

NBM   91,89

ICON  88,89

EURO  87,74

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56 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

Check back Monday and see how your favorite model made out.    As of latest runs available this evening.

Some color to go with the forecasts.      For the GFS:      Looks like 20*C+ briefly for the 850mb T:

1652896800-Vm7bpWdSz7U.png

         Sat/Sun

GFS    98,96

CMC   95,93

NDFD 92,90

NBM   91,89

ICON  88,89

EURO  87,74

The Euro is psycho

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This weekend looks like a scorcher but it is interesting to note the differences in temperature on the 00Z 5/19 NAM FOUS as of 12Z Saturday with PHL being the hottest BTV the second hottest, then ALB, then LGA with BOS being the coolest.

WX/PT

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20 hours ago, bluewave said:

Why can’t we take it seriously? It reached 102° at the end of June in Corona Queens. So the 103° at Newark reflected it being a degree warmer in NE NJ than Queens. 

That's a built up highly urban area.  You literally can't breathe the air there because everything is so clustered together and so polluted.  Asthma rates through the roof in that part of Queens too, I think it has the highest asthma rates in the entire country.  It's not a "natural" environment to live in.  Not to mention that 100+ is extremely rare in the city, the last time it legitimately happened was back in our extremely hot summer of 1966.

 

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19 hours ago, bluewave said:

The GEM has the most extreme temperature gradient of all. Strong sea breeze and cooler temperatures east of the Hudson. Has highs of 95-100° in NJ.

656FBBF8-C802-42A6-B40B-E77E8FFDD094.thumb.png.edb57cc69fb194d11a89bedea1571ea3.png

C85D4796-446B-48CA-9E36-B39521E05543.thumb.png.c09628db1255261db506bd62814bca53.png

 

I highly doubt it's that extreme.  Looks like Central Park is forecast to reach 90 both days of the weekend, and we'll probably get to 80 near JFK.

 

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12 hours ago, bluewave said:

It will be interesting to see if somebody in NJ can record their first 100° day in May on Saturday. Models have 850 mb temperatures around +21 C. This is about as high as we ever saw the 850s this early in the season.The temperature differential between low 70s  in Long Beach and upper 90s to near 100° in NJ is as extreme as it gets.


370399A6-B249-4F6C-AD16-2AF6D06BABE0.thumb.png.5bf5c5af32a09140a2289c1e1c23d287.png

062AD72F-F5FC-44C0-B6FA-1B73A572D0E1.thumb.png.f9bc563995899d1167b70f63b7f29801.png

6B51DF26-1CEB-457A-907A-2403892198F7.thumb.png.c4f1a0e355045ab3abfa61c20b0d3fa8.png

 

How is this different from May 1996?  It was about that extreme then too.

And what about the April 2002 heatwave?

 

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Morning thoughts…

Rain will end this morning. The clouds will break from west to east this afternoon. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in much of the region. Southern New Jersey and southeastern Pennsylvania will see temperatures top out in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 68°

Newark: 70°

Philadelphia: 78°

The weekend will likely see the warmest temperatures so far this season in many parts of the region.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 72.1°; 15-Year: 72.9°

Newark: 30-Year: 73.4°; 15-Year: 74.3°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 75.2°; 15-Year: 75.8°

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The next 8 days are averaging  72degs.(62/83) or +7.

Month to date is  60.7[-0.8].        Should be  64.2[+1.6] by the 27th.

Reached 69 here yesterday.    

Today: 63-67, wind s. to n.w.,rain early, m. cloudy with breaks?, 62* tomorrow AM.    Possible high T ranges for the weekend:

Sat.             Sun.   

92-99        89-91

Deduct 10 to 20 degrees if you are near JFK, or in a similar environment.

56*(96%RH) here at 7am{was 55 at 6am.}       59* at Noon.

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

You have to remember the resolution of those forecast maps is very coarse. So we post them for approximations of where the warmest and coolest temperatures will be found. That’s why the NWS generates MOS numbers to correct some of those biases. But the MOS  can also struggle with extreme events like Saturday. So we use past experience with the similar 850 mb temperatures and wind directions. The 850 mb temperatures will be near the all-time May highs in this area around +21 to +22 C. This would support upper 90s to near 100° In NJ away from the sea breeze.

Then we try to figure out how the sea breeze will influence the highs further east. Long Beach may be in the 70s while  Commack is getting close to 90°. JFK would probably be in between those readings into the 80s.

The  Central Park temperatures need to factor in the wind direction and the dense vegetation around the sensor. The models don’t know that the sensor is in the deep shade. So the forecast highs are usually warm biased. It could be one of those situations where the models have low 90s but the high gets stuck in the upper 80s. Especially if the flow stays SSE. But more SSW flow could make it to 90°. NYC has been famous for upper 80s while surrounding areas record 90s. 

Thanks Chris, so would you say this event would be roughly comparable to May 1996, like the April 2002 extreme heat was comparable to April 1976?  Interesting that 2002 had the much hotter summer-- one of our hottest as a matter of fact!

 

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

You have to remember the resolution of those forecast maps is very coarse. So we post them for approximations of where the warmest and coolest temperatures will be found. That’s why the NWS generates MOS numbers to correct some of those biases. But the MOS  can also struggle with extreme events like Saturday. So we use past experience with the similar 850 mb temperatures and wind directions. The 850 mb temperatures will be near the all-time May highs in this area around +21 to +22 C. This would support upper 90s to near 100° In NJ away from the sea breeze.

Then we try to figure out how the sea breeze will influence the highs further east. Long Beach may be in the 70s while  Commack is getting close to 90°. JFK would probably be in between those readings into the 80s.

The  Central Park temperatures need to factor in the wind direction and the dense vegetation around the sensor. The models don’t know that the sensor is in the deep shade. So the forecast highs are usually warm biased. It could be one of those situations where the models have low 90s but the high gets stuck in the upper 80s. Especially if the flow stays SSE. But more SSW flow could make it to 90°. NYC has been famous for upper 80s while surrounding areas record 90s. 

Didn't we have something like this in April 2010, the day we had our earliest 90 degree reading....NYC reached 92 while JFK hit 89 and Long Beach was only in the upper 60s?  The models underdid that heat!

 

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