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The first 90° readings of the season look possible for New England by next weekend. Very unusual skinny 588 dm ridge over the cutoff low. If the winds stay S or SE, then NYC and LGA may only top out in the upper 70s. But a SW flow would be easy 80s even for NYC and LGA. 

1397FBCD-BEEB-44D1-9E63-D68BC675E783.thumb.png.854feebb879716d98a74c5709c46888d.png

5F4E20C6-8AFF-473A-95FB-52A78EC74C29.thumb.png.def415e6be10b314bab04c6557e6aa5b.png

7532456D-FC16-40EA-B27F-0400CFE34401.thumb.png.b4b209bf5c29ab2722834e167b3f9441.png

 

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40 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The first 90° readings of the season look possible for New England by next weekend. Very unusual skinny 588 dm ridge over the cutoff low. If the winds stay S or SE, then NYC and LGA may only top out in the upper 70s. But a SW flow would be easy 80s even for NYC and LGA. 

1397FBCD-BEEB-44D1-9E63-D68BC675E783.thumb.png.854feebb879716d98a74c5709c46888d.png

5F4E20C6-8AFF-473A-95FB-52A78EC74C29.thumb.png.def415e6be10b314bab04c6557e6aa5b.png

7532456D-FC16-40EA-B27F-0400CFE34401.thumb.png.b4b209bf5c29ab2722834e167b3f9441.png

 

why can't we get a west wind already?

 

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52 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The first 90° readings of the season look possible for New England by next weekend. Very unusual skinny 588 dm ridge over the cutoff low. If the winds stay S or SE, then NYC and LGA may only top out in the upper 70s. But a SW flow would be easy 80s even for NYC and LGA. 

the eps shows potential for at least a day or two of sw flow

eps-fast_mslpa_us_10.png

eps-fast_mslpa_us_11.png

 

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12 hours ago, forkyfork said:

the eps shows potential for at least a day or two of sw flow

 

It could be a short window of opportunity if the models are correct about the next trough in 8-10 days.


3F965B35-6AEA-40D1-9913-61E03D3F8BC7.thumb.png.84a80f43bd6979c891986ce1628721df.pngF11FBE1C-F136-4C71-81A1-E2FE021A98B0.thumb.png.1a6d00307d9dfa16c93f6ec22d7cae65.png

0D32CDB5-8E9F-43B3-BAEE-ADB43E2C1A9D.thumb.png.5d36c46695c92977e5fe4a2d2d529258.png

 

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9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It could be a short window of opportunity if the long range models are to be believed about another cutoff by day 9-10.


3F965B35-6AEA-40D1-9913-61E03D3F8BC7.thumb.png.84a80f43bd6979c891986ce1628721df.pngF11FBE1C-F136-4C71-81A1-E2FE021A98B0.thumb.png.1a6d00307d9dfa16c93f6ec22d7cae65.png

0D32CDB5-8E9F-43B3-BAEE-ADB43E2C1A9D.thumb.png.5d36c46695c92977e5fe4a2d2d529258.png

 

whats causing all these cutoffs-- the blocking is in the process of going away isn't it?

if that works out it doesn't look so good for the total lunar eclipse

 

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The high temperature in New York City's Central Park was 50°. That tied the same reading in 1874 for the 3rd coldest high temperature on record for May 7th. Out West, it was a completely different story. Denver reached a record high of 89°. At Amarillo, the temperature topped out at 101°, both smashing the longstanding record of 97° from 1916 and becoming that city's earliest 100° temperature on record. The prior mark was set on May 15, 1996. Phoenix also recorded its first 100° temperature of the year.

Tomorrow will still be unseasonably cool, but perhaps slightly milder. Some sunshine is possible especially from New York City and westward.

Overall, the first 10 days of the month will probably feature a cool anomaly with temperatures averaging 3°-5° below normal with a few colder spots. The second half of the month will likely be warmer than normal and there remains some possibility of an overall warm monthly outcome.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around April 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.93°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June.

The SOI was +11.59 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.191 today.

On May 5 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.352 (RMM). The May 4-adjusted amplitude was 1.092 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 50% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.3° (0.1° above normal).

 

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27 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

whats causing all these cutoffs-- the blocking is in the process of going away isn't it?

if that works out it doesn't look so good for the total lunar eclipse

 

The blocking just changed locations. We had a strong -AO block in April. Now the models are forecasting a record SE Canada block in the coming days. 

424102A5-D43C-42A8-AA58-44CB27F9921A.png.501a213fbd940c4cc628166c5f1d0820.png


AF786415-FFF3-4B7E-8B5C-F094323FD9D3.thumb.png.39bb33b58fb41871ceac8ecc86aca8f6.png

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any day with the Sun out this time of year gets into at least the mid 70's unless there is record cold...so far May 2022 is getting off to a cool start...Will it continue?...I hope not...today just missed having a max in the 40's...Today is the day you are sorry you turned the heat off...

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any day with the Sun out this time of year gets into at least the mid 70's unless there is record cold...so far May 2022 is getting off to a cool start...Will it continue?...I hope not...today just missed having a max in the 40's...Today is the day you are sorry you turned the heat off...
42 degrees here

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

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10 hours ago, lee59 said:

I am assuming the rain gauge at Central Park is in the same area as the temperature gauge. If so I'm glad at least some sun must get thru, on the other hand, if the growth continues they will have to trim it or not get accurate rain readings.

Good evening Lee59.  I’m not sure myself but I see your point/concern. Ref, NOAA/NWS at Central Park, 20:51, 46 degrees and 1.61 inches of rain recorded. Stay well, as always ..

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record lows in Central Park are in the low to mid 30's...where is your location?...
Mastic in central Suffolk county

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The next 8 days are averaging  62degs.(52/72) or just Normal.

Reached 53 early yesterday.     

Today: 55-58, wind n.e. and breezy, m. cloudy, 45 tomorrow AM.

WELCOME TO SOLAR SUMMER>>>>>    May 08 to August 08.

The rain of the last two days may come back at us next Sat., Sun., Mon., Tues. as this system circumnavigates the East Coast. 

Highest T on any model including the NBM for the next 10 days is 76 to 82.    Normal is 71, 72, 73.     The 90's via the GFS of two days ago are now 70's.

48*(60%RH) here at 7am.{was 46 at 3am}.       50* at 9am.       53* at 10am.      55* at Noon.       59* at 2pm.    61* at 3pm.      Reached 62* at 4pm.

 

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Morning thoughts…

It will be mostly cloudy and continued cool from Philadelphia to New York City and eastward. Some drier air could work into the cities to allow for some breaks in the clouds during the afternoon. Across northwestern New Jersey and northeastern Pennsylvania, it will be a partly sunny day. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 50s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 56°

Newark: 58°

Philadelphia: 55°

The sun will return to the entire region tomorrow and temperatures will rise into the 60s.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 69.5°; 15-Year: 70.3°

Newark: 30-Year: 70.5°; 15-Year: 71.3°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 72.3°; 15-Year: 72.9°

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