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March 12 Rain to…more rain? Maybe some snow


HoarfrostHubb
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43 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

IIRC last April was quite nice. Better than many we've seen in the past 

april wasn't too bad last year, for april anyway, but that stretch from mid may to just about July was awful and like rain every other day it seemed, summer wasn't that great either, if you like HHH weather, I for one would sell that crap, but my wife likes it... anyway, I'm a little over 5" from breaking over 18-19, and about 10" from 06-07, as it stands now, fourth worst winter since 1932 when the station near me began recording, awful, but not the worst.

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1 minute ago, Sn0waddict said:

HRRR tracks it over the cape. Tries to flip western CT.

have a feeling this may surprise some folks... I said that about yesterday too, but stuck to my 1-3 and busted high, always nice to bust high...

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2 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

april wasn't too bad last year, for april anyway, but that stretch from mid may to just about July was awful and like rain every other day it seemed, summer wasn't that great either, if you like HHH weather, I for one would sell that crap, but my wife likes it... anyway, I'm a little over 5" from breaking over 18-19, and about 10" from 06-07, as it stands now, fourth worst winter since 1932 when the station near me began recording, awful, but not the worst.

Memorial Day and July 4th.  What disasters

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10 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

have a feeling this may surprise some folks... I said that about yesterday too, but stuck to my 1-3 and busted high, always nice to bust high...

Not overly optimistic for anything here. But the trends could helps those in litchfield county/berkshires etc.

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18 minutes ago, mob1 said:

Anyone else concerned about a Category 5 hurricane hitting CC? 

nam3km_mslp_wind_neus_56.png

This happened to the 3km NAM several years ago. 

If I remember correctly, this is a dynamical issue (different from convective feedback)- The flow is moving too fast for the fine resolution model to resolve. Toss the 3km NAM... The 12/32km NAM looks fine.

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53 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Memorial Day and July 4th.  What disasters

yup...on a different note, I was trying to talk my dad out of doing the snow this morning, telling him it'll mostly be gone by sunset, he stubbornly continues, threw a shear pin and wasted a gallon of precious gas...and everything else melted, ha

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2 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

yup...on a different note, I was trying to talk my dad out of doing the snow this morning, telling him it'll mostly be gone by sunset, he stubbornly continues, threw a shear pin and wasted a gallon of precious gas...and everything else melted, ha

I didn’t snowblow : shovel last night.  I have not been home yet, but I’m assuming most of the 4.5” is gone

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BOX (wisely) hedging more wet than white right now (NBM)

“The biggest question stems from the eventful track of the surface low and has to do with how quickly sub freezing air is pulled in and things transition to snow for western and central MA. The GFS continues to bring in cold air slower and be lower on the snow totals compered to the ECMWF and NAM. For now given the lingering discrepancy and lack of higher-res guidance, will hedge toward the NBM. A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for the northern Berkshires where amount will be greater, but for the slopes of the Berkshires we`re now thinking in the 1-3 inch range. As the low passes and cold advection kicks in rain likely changes to snow on the tail end for the rest of southern New England late in the day but appreciable accumulation is not expected.“

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