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March 2022 General Discussion


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7 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Looks to start with some zzzzzz's. Just like the entire winter for us in the "suck zone"

How much snow have you had up there?  Had about 14" here so far not counting what's coming from the current storm.  Dubuque only at 15.5" or something.  Looks like Rockford below 15" as well.  Just a sad, sad winter lol.

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17 minutes ago, Baum said:

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz watch in effect.

GFS has been hanging on to the idea of western troughing late in the runs but of course details all over the place and of course it loves always showing a big suppressive cold high ready to plunge down and crush any cyclone that tries to spin up. You'd think with a belt of 90-100kt southwesterlies at 500mb draped across the CONUS east of the Rockies something interesting would happen, but :huh:.

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2 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

GFS has been hanging on to the idea of western troughing late in the runs but of course details all over the place and of course it loves always showing a big suppressive cold high ready to plunge down and crush any cyclone that tries to spin up. You'd think with a belt of 90-100kt southwesterlies at 500mb draped across the CONUS east of the Rockies something interesting would happen, but :huh:.

Seems to always be at the end of the run. Similar to how we always seem to get one run a day with a random long range bomb for someone that promptly disappears. 

 

I think @Chicago Storm's recent run to run snowfall gifs really show how awful the GFS has been the past few months.

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15 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Seems to always be at the end of the run. Similar to how we always seem to get one run a day with a random long range bomb for someone that promptly disappears. 

 

I think @Chicago Storm's recent run to run snowfall gifs really show how awful the GFS has been the past few months.

For sure. However, that's for something that's a fairly sensitive detail (albeit an important one, especially when talking about impacts to major metro areas), namely snowfall amounts. For general synoptics, you'd hope that some run-to-run consistency would mean SOMETHING.

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Call me crazy, but I think this is the time for some of the areas that have been snow starved to start to rally.  It looks like a gradient type pattern, which means that wintry wx would be less likely for the OV (not impossible, but less likely) with the better snow chances being farther north.

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Looking forward to next weekend. My modelling method is suggesting some potential there, but precip type will be an issue. Should be plenty of ice over the west side of the Lake to keep cold air in play. Ice over to snow is very likely. The upcoming week, although not as cold as previous days, is plenty cold enough to keep making ice, especially during the overnights. Some breezy weather will cause breakups, but there is going to be calmer winds mixed in there, too, which will help with ice formation. Right now, the entire west side of the Lake is ice covered, but it's on the thin side. Lake ice will be a big factor for my weather next weekend.

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On 2/25/2022 at 1:03 PM, Hoosier said:

Call me crazy, but I think this is the time for some of the areas that have been snow starved to start to rally.  It looks like a gradient type pattern, which means that wintry wx would be less likely for the OV (not impossible, but less likely) with the better snow chances being farther north.

Locally we are well overdue for a good March snowstorm. However, We have also been due for a reality check February and we chalked up yet another snowy one. 

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On 2/24/2022 at 6:20 PM, cyclone77 said:

How much snow have you had up there?  Had about 14" here so far not counting what's coming from the current storm.  Dubuque only at 15.5" or something.  Looks like Rockford below 15" as well.  Just a sad, sad winter lol.

The ONLY thing saving this crappy winter for me was GHD3, where I pretty much bulls-eyed with 12.3".  You take that away and I would be sitting at 9.9". This brings up the discussion of whether you are happier with one big dog or just general snowy and cold throughout the winter. I want both!

Back to the thread topic, as it is discussed every year as we roll into March, some are ready to go into full-blown spring, while others are hoping to salvage winter, no matter how awful it's been up to this point.  I guess that I fall into the latter category, as I use astronomical spring as the cutoff. So, winter, you have three weeks to redeem yourself. That being said, the upcoming week looks zzzzzz with a mini torch next weekend, so let's make that two weeks.

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The coming week looks mild and dry, to be honest I’d be perfectly fine with an early spring. Hearing rumblings of a possible PV disruption, so let’s see what happens. 
 

March is my least favorite month out of the year, so hope it comes and goes in a blink. 

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I personally like March more than February. In March, warm days are much more common and the weather can be more interesting too with anything from snow to very warm weather.  I've seen temps near 90 in March ! I also love the longer days.

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5 hours ago, IWXwx said:

The ONLY thing saving this crappy winter for me was GHD3, where I pretty much bulls-eyed with 12.3".  You take that away and I would be sitting at 9.9". This brings up the discussion of whether you are happier with one big dog or just general snowy and cold throughout the winter. I want both!

Back to the thread topic, as it is discussed every year as we roll into March, some are ready to go into full-blown spring, while others are hoping to salvage winter, no matter how awful it's been up to this point.  I guess that I fall into the latter category, as I use astronomical spring as the cutoff. So, winter, you have three weeks to redeem yourself. That being said, the upcoming week looks zzzzzz with a mini torch next weekend, so let's make that two weeks.

Regardless whether we're coming out of the most severe winter on record or the mildest, or anything in between, I always want additional Winter in March.  Sitting at 39.5" of snow imby on the season. DTW 39.6" which is 3" above avg to date but March has been crappy in recent years. April has been better for snows lol. It ended up being a good Winter for frequent snowfalls, including two 6"+ storms, but no big dog. It's high time March gets her act together and produces a blockbuster snowstorm. Looking at historical data, it's crazy how many horrendous mild/snowless winters in the 1930s and 1950s saw a big March snowstorm.  It was as if you expected it.  Makes me think somewhere in cyclone area, or perhaps Wisconsin, or Northwest Iowa gets a big march storm. Though hopefully we do too lol.

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Extended western/central troughing pattern is supported not only by consistency from op GFS but also the Euro and its ensembles...SPC has mentioned it in their 4-8 outlook for a few days now although the main timeframe of interest still remains at/just beyond the Day 8 range so they haven't introduced an areal highlight yet. Details remain nebulous as to be expected at this range. Ideally would be occurring a month or two later especially for :twister:action into this sub but it can still happen in early/mid March (or earlier) and happen big...2/28/17, 3/15/16, 3/2/12, 3/12/06, 3/13/90, even 3/18/25.

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