HVSnowLover Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 14 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: What a gradient, 9.4" in Warwick and 0.7" in Morristown. Almost all sleet in between the ice. It will be interesting to see if these gradients actually verify or if the mid levels are warmer than most models are picking up on but outside of the NAM almost every model is now trending toward a very tight gradient somewhere near HPN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 13 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: What is criteria for an ice storm warning? It seems like it's just based on ZR but in this case it seems like it will be heavy sleet and maybe some ZR so that we more a winter storm warning? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 5 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said: Sounds like heavy sleet could qualify for a winter storm warning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 hour ago, HeadInTheClouds said: It’s a huge warm outlier and anybody with a brain knows this. I would not discount the nam is this type of event. It's possible the nam is too aggressive with the warm air aloft but it does a pretty good job with warm noses. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 4 minutes ago, Rjay said: I would not discount the nam is this type of event. It's possible the nam is too aggressive with the warm air aloft but it does a pretty good job with warm tongues. In this case the NAM is not just showing a warm tounge, its basically showing an entirely different storm track with a primary up to Western NY and a secondary over Cape Cod. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 1 hour ago, Rjay said: I would not discount the nam is this type of event. It's possible the nam is too aggressive with the warm air aloft but it does a pretty good job with warm noses. It's an absolute warm outlier and not even close to other guidance. It's not just about warm tongues. Nothing is even close. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 1 hour ago, Rjay said: I would not discount the nam is this type of event. It's possible the nam is too aggressive with the warm air aloft but it does a pretty good job with warm noses. So are you confirming or denying that you don't have a brain? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 18Z Euro continues to be well south of the NAM, actually has the majority of the storm as snow for far northern posters here (Sussex into Orange County). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 1 hour ago, Rjay said: I would not discount the nam is this type of event. It's possible the nam is too aggressive with the warm air aloft but it does a pretty good job with warm noses. I don’t like how far North the primary gets. From that standpoint it’s a big outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 The Euro usually over does snow on the S edge in these events. I've never fully understood why because it has a solid grid resolution but it typically misses the warm nose til the last minute. The RGEM is by far the best model if you ask me for ptype at the moment though it is likely too cold after 10Z Fri AM on the south edge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 18z Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Euro is colder than 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 1 minute ago, Tatamy said: 18z Euro there is no reason the EURO can't verify - the cold air at all levels will not be easy to move out of place - its a fresh injection and the primary will be weakening as it throws its energy to the secondary....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 5 minutes ago, Tatamy said: 18z Euro Thanks do u have the Kutchera it accounts for sleet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Just now, NEG NAO said: there is no reason the EURO can't verify - the cold air at all levels will not be easy to move out of place - its a fresh injection and the primary will be weakening as it throws its energy to the secondary....... The cold air will hang at the surface but the 700-800mb SW jet is racing in. It’s borderline in the beginning but very pronounced by 08-10z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The Euro usually over does snow on the S edge in these events. I've never fully understood why because it has a solid grid resolution but it typically misses the warm nose til the last minute. The RGEM is by far the best model if you ask me for ptype at the moment though it is likely too cold after 10Z Fri AM on the south edge That's the 10 to 1 map. The Kutchera is more accurate for sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: there is no reason the EURO can't verify - the cold air at all levels will not be easy to move out of place - its a fresh injection and the primary will be weakening as it throws its energy to the secondary....... The high isn't racing to the east. These cold trends are legit. A few inches to sleet for NYC seems possible with alot more for the interior NY and PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 18z Euro with Kuchera 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Just now, Tatamy said: 18z Euro with Kuchera Wow. Good for the Catskill ski resorts who have taken an absolute beating over the last 2 weeks. Hope it's right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, Tatamy said: 18z Euro with Kuchera Wow warning level snow to the Bronx border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Depending on your choice of model there is going to be a fairly significant gradient in snowfall amounts going from south to north. That gradient could set up anywhere on an west to east axis between I80 and I84. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 I don't think Euro is right but we haven't had a gradient storm across the city in a while so maybe we are due. However Its probably way to cold in the mid levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 13 minutes ago, Tatamy said: 18z Euro I would sign up for this in a New York Minute ,,,hope it verifies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 11 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: That’s not actually true. South of sunrise highway east of the meadowbrook went to all rain on VDay 2007. I was living in Long Beach at the time and went to my parents in south wantagh and was shocked that there was no ice on the trees there. Meanwhile right down to the beach in Lb stayed frozen wow thats interesting, it stayed just below freezing here both days. It must matter where on the south shore you are, the farther east you go the higher the temps. Another example is March 1993, when JFK got 12 inches of snow and Oceanside got 10 inches....as soon as you went east of Oceanside the amounts dropped off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said: I don't think Euro is right but we haven't had a gradient storm across the city in a while so maybe we are due. However Its probably way to cold in the mid levels. It's all about the depth of that warm nose that is progged to set up between 700mb to 800mb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: I don't think Euro is right but we haven't had a gradient storm across the city in a while so maybe we are due. However Its probably way to cold in the mid levels. I'm going to use the old line and ask.....aren't all storms gradient storms? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Wow warning level snow to the Bronx border. I’d bet it’s too cold in this setup. I think the best hope the city has is that it can stay all sleet instead of a period where it turns to rain or ZR. The warm mid level air is often under modeled in SWFEs and I’ve seen the Euro be too cold in these before. But it’s possible the coastal low can develop a little sooner and prevent the surface from warming above freezing. Mid levels though will be too late. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 For those going with the mesos look at the progression of the anticipated gradient on the RGEM during today's runs. Look at 6z, 12z and 18z. Interesting stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: I'm going to use the old line and ask.....aren't all storms gradient storms? lol Somewhat but sometimes they are less sharp than others and also we haven't had one set up right over or near the NYC area in a while that I can think of. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 1 hour ago, hudsonvalley21 said: I hate winter storm warnings and just the terminology "winter storm" because snow and ice can occur in any season besides summer. I think we need a separate warning system for snow and it needs to start at either 10 or 12 inches of snow and get rid of the terminology of " winter storms completely. Keep everything separate-- snow storms, ice storms and frozen starts (which would be a mixture) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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