jm1220 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 14 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: I've never seen a worse winter season where models have not been in better agreement sooner to the event like 12hrs or less. Majority of the storms have been horrible to forecast... This has been pretty well forecast for days now. There’ll be 50 mile or so shifts at this range for any system but it’s been clear for several days this would be a crud/slop system for NYC and heavy snow well north. Not much anxiety with this one unlike the 1/29 storm/blizzard for LI. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: The models aren't really going in different directions, theyll all either basically stayed the same or trended a bit south except the NAM is a whacky model that can't be trusted at all this winter. We didn't get 30 inches of snow on 1/29 and it was also way too warm for the 1/16 event. I'm not talking about this storm with this talk. I've been on other boards and it's been talked about a lot last month how models have been struggling so badly, especially the Blizzard. And some of the other storms. I can't recall exact dates. Heck even nws made a comment at one point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzwalker Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 NOAA at 315 PM reduced my winter storm watch for Middletown (Orange Co) from 4-8 to 3-6. This, when globals and some mesos have increased snow amounts. Are they weighting NAM and some other mesos more? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Just now, jm1220 said: This has been pretty well forecast for days now. There’ll be 50 mile or so shifts at this range for any system but it’s been clear for several days this would be a crud/slop system for NYC and heavy snow well north. Not much anxiety with this one unlike the 1/29 storm/blizzard for LI. Yeah I was implying that storm especially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 40 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: So lets see. 18z Euro gives me 12, 18z RGEM 10, 18z GFS 10, plus other mesos who are a bit out of their range give me similar numbers but I'm supposed to believe that Nam actually has a clue with it's 1.5 IMBY and 3 up in Albany and takes the primary well north and develops the secondary over cape cod. Well, I don't. The NAM won't likely verify verbatim, however, that stupid mid level warm nose always ends the snow party up here sooner than expected no matter what snow amounts models show. It happens EVERY SINGLE TIME. As far as I can remember with a synoptic setup like this, we either get the bottom of the snow range or below the forecasted range. Now go ahead. Weenie me baby!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Hrrr looks like it's decreased amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 1 minute ago, White Gorilla said: The NAM won't likely verify verbatim, however, that stupid mid level warm nose always ends the snow party up here no matter what snow amounts models show. It happens EVERY SINGLE TIME. As far as I can remember with a synoptic setup like this, we either get the bottom of the snow range or below the forecasted range. Now go ahead. Weenie me baby!!! The nam definitely won't verify and I believe we get at least 6 before some sleet. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 7 minutes ago, Blizzwalker said: NOAA at 315 PM reduced my winter storm watch for Middletown (Orange Co) from 4-8 to 3-6. This, when most globals and some mesos have increased snow amounts. Are they weighting NAM and some other mesos more? Yeah, as the previous synoptic writeup said, they weigh the NAM heavy in these setups when blending guidance based on past performance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 The Nam is different aloft with its evolution, especially with the S/W so far north which moves all the features north. It’s probably too amped but the Euro is probably too cold. I’ve seen it before with SWFEs be too cold. But again no one should be shocked at late 50 mile shifts with this. These usually tick north at the end. For NYC it’s really all about how soon and where the secondary pops for the surface wind direction. It could be all sleet if we avoid an onshore wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 6 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: If this could shift ever so slightly south I would sign up for it as it would make me very happy and Sloatsburg Snowy unhappy that would be a win win Still time for slight shifts one way or another. A 20 mile shift in either direction will affect many with that sharp cutoff. 18z runs tomorrow could have better ideas with the surface and mid level temps factored in with their placements and readings. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Out this way it could get dicey. West of MMU I have seen upwards of 1” of sleet/freezing rain on some models, and others showing 7.5”+ of snow. Slopfest incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 7 minutes ago, Blizzwalker said: NOAA at 315 PM reduced my winter storm watch for Middletown (Orange Co) from 4-8 to 3-6. This, when globals and some mesos have increased snow amounts. Are they weighting NAM and some other mesos more? My point and click here basically held serve with 3-7” and 0.1-0.2 ice accretion along with an overnight low of 26. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 6 minutes ago, jm1220 said: The Nam is different aloft with its evolution, especially with the S/W so far north which moves all the features north. It’s probably too amped but the Euro is probably too cold. I’ve seen it before with SWFEs be too cold. But again no one should be shocked at late 50 mile shifts with this. These usually tick north at the end. For NYC it’s really all about how soon and where the secondary pops for the surface wind direction. It could be all sleet if we avoid an onshore wind. What model has actually shifted north besides the nam? GFS basically the same, and RGEM and Euro were colder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 10 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: The nam definitely won't verify and I believe we get at least 6 before some sleet. 00z NAM is running now. 18z 12k run had basically 8” for your and my area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 6 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said: 00z NAM is running now. 18z 12k run had basically 8” for your and my area No it didn't. Don't look at TT maps as they include sleet. Pivotal maps had it only giving me about 2 inches and then lots of sleet. It gave Newburgh practically no snow, lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 NAM is coming S. weaker system and more confluence 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 10 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: No it didn't. Don't look at TT maps as they include sleet. Pivotal maps had it only giving me about 2 inches and then lots of sleet. It gave Newburgh practically no snow, lol. Ok thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 FYI, recon is flying as we speak 1 planes done 36 drops the other one 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 19 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: What model has actually shifted north besides the nam? GFS basically the same, and RGEM and Euro were colder. 12Z Ukie shifted north from previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 NAM already way south and has snow some snow for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Not sure if this relates to this storm or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Nam almost made it back to planet earth. It's still hovering though and deciding whether to land or not. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Nam almost made it back to planet earth. It's still hovering though and deciding whether to land or not. I mean it went from 2.4 for Albany to 6.3 so it's a step toward returning to the planet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Just now, HVSnowLover said: I mean it went from 2.4 for Albany to 5.4 so it's a step toward returning to the planet. It's probably looking for the coordinates to Snowman's house. 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 1 minute ago, HeadInTheClouds said: It's probably looking for the coordinates to Snowman's house. 3k still looks pretty terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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