February 24/25 Potential Winter Storm

[Rtd208]

Winter Weather Advisory issued here from 7pm this evening until 10am Friday morning for up to 1" of sleet and 1-2 tenths of an inch of ice.

[White Gorilla]

Winter Sturm Warning here for Dutchess and Ulster for 5-8 inches of snow followed by sleet and ZR, changing back to snow Friday afternoon. 

[MJO812]

6 hours ago, MJO812 said:

I'm going to pray for colder trends tomorrow 

Nope warmer trends

Awful

[White Gorilla]

Haha, weenie me away Snowman!  I am going to enjoy the beauty of a wintry scene tomorrow up here.  Keep em coming, forum clown!  

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Nope warmer trends

Awful

Surface temperatures will be difficult to warm regardless so more ice possible. I'm hoping we stay on the positive side of freezing but it'll be close. 

Currently low 30s with dews in the teens. 

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Nope warmer trends

Awful

It’s the usual SWFE last minute north push. This has been well behaved for one of these. Not much changes for us other than what falls initially probably washing away. Around I-84 might get cut back for accums a good amount from the north push, that was the area hoping the south trend was real. 

[White Gorilla]

9 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

It’s the usual SWFE last minute north push. This has been well behaved for one of these. Not much changes for us other than what falls initially probably washing away. Around I-84 might get cut back for accums a good amount from the north push, that was the area hoping the south trend was real. 

No biggie.  I have given up on a big snow more than 6 this winter for up here anyway.  A couple of inches of snow with sleet preserver should whiten the lands up here tomorrow and my kids get a snow day.  All is good. 

[Brasiluvsnow]

10 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

It’s the usual SWFE last minute north push. This has been well behaved for one of these. Not much changes for us other than what falls initially probably washing away. Around I-84 might get cut back for accums a good amount from the north push, that was the area hoping the south trend was real. 

HRRR and RGEM do not look much different to me,,,,,Long Island appears to get rain but everything north and west of that appears to get ice or snow

[Shades]

This thread was more active earlier in the week when there were more uncertainties and variabilities. It seems that just because a winter weather event may not deliver for some as hoped or wished, it garners less attention or even warranting further discussion i.e. impacts, nowcasting trends. IMO there is way too much emotional investment in this hobby - which I can imagine affecting people's mental health and furthermore appreciation of the science behind forecasting.

Working in human services I often encounter what "chasing the high" does to people, whatever that "high" may be. There is indeed an adrenaline rush driven by the enthusiasm of this science, and there's nothing wrong with that - it's what drives the passion and discourse. Concerning what becomes subjectified by some, is how this hobby can almost become detrimental as gambling does. Granted, I don't think anyone, or many  people are placing bets, but there seems to be a sense of risking the loss of something important by investing your time and attention, or other stakes such as reputation. Not sure what to make of this, but I wonder sometimes how the science is often being missed or overlooked.

To this event, I find it really intriguing how much impact boundary layers have at the cusp of arctic high pressure. Climatologically, this is a very impressive discharge of cold air corresponding with wave interaction on a frontal boundary. The midlevel warming associated with that overriding the dense surface air, for a majority of the event at or below freezing for many. 

I think an interesting factor not given enough attention is the dewpoint depression and how that may impact further cooling as the event commences and even during it... it's really a battle between the surface and midlevel boundaries. Sleet dominating makes sense, and so does freezing rain in prone/untreated areas. If you live above a subway line, which is much of NYC-proper, ground temperatures will thwart any significant accumulation with slop, but elevated crossways, and pedestrian bridges, ramps, steps, may be hazardous for an extended time during Friday morning's commute. Even though roads may be fine, not everyone drives a car, and it's more hazardous to walk and break a bone, rib, or hip, than be in a vehicle during winter weather events such as this. Take caution ya'll!

[jm1220]

5 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

HRRR and RGEM do not look much different to me,,,,,Long Island appears to get rain but everything north and west of that appears to get ice or snow

Ice definitely, I-84 and anyone inland more than a few miles NW of the city won’t get any plain rain. But snow looks focused along I-90. It’s where these usually end up. 

[Brasiluvsnow]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Ice definitely, I-84 and anyone inland more than a few miles NW of the city won’t get any plain rain. But snow looks focused along I-90. It’s where these usually end up. 

I get it JM but for people to post as if this will be a non event ( as so many posters do with all events  ) when it has not even begun  = especially when the models are showing as we both agree possible significant ice is ,,,,,,,,is fascinating to say the least

[wthrmn654]

The overall synoptic evolution among the global models remains in
good agreement with a primary low pressure center to our NW
transferring energy to an offshore low to our south before the
center of the entire system passes through. There are however still
some differences within the mesoscale, particularly with timing,
speed and magnitude of a warm nose aloft. Trend from the past few
runs, even with the GFS, has been warmer in this regard. There are
also differences with the handling of the primary low to our north
and west as well as secondary low pressure near or just south of
Long Island, but somewhat better agreement in this regard versus 24
hours ago.

Precipitation develops across the region from southwest to northeast
late this evening. Strong warm advection ahead of the system is
going to pump warm and moist air up and over the colder and drier
air that will be in place from high pressure to the north. How
quickly a warm nose develops between about 850 mb and 700 mb will
ultimately determine precipitation types and amounts across the
region. The GFS, ECMWF and RGEM are colder than the NAM overall. The
NAM however in the past has done a good job at picking up on warm
noses as well as the speed and intensity of them. The latest
forecast includes a lean toward the NAM given the warming trend
seen, but still averaged with the colder guidance.

Precip begins as all snow, starting late evening/toward midnight
across NE NJ and spreading north and east. A transition to a wintry
mix for coastal areas after midnight, then for the interior after
daybreak Friday. Although the max temp in the warm nose is progged
to eventually be warm enough to preclude anything but rain or
freezing rain, the cold nose beneath it is marginally cold enough
for a refreezing to sleet, but more importantly, deeper than the
typical shallow layer of cold air we more typically see. Therefore
have leaned more toward sleet or a sleet/rain or sleet/freezing rain
in these instances where normally sleet wouldn`t likely be in the
mix. Also, good agreement among the models that late Friday morning
into much of the afternoon will feature a lack of sufficient ice
nucleation for snow growth, so no snow anticipated in the afternoon -
just rain, freezing rain and possibly some sleet. Most of all precip
should fall before early afternoon for most of the area.

There was not enough confidence to upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning
anywhere given the warming trend, and this was collaborated with the
surrounding offices. And with precip starting tonight, felt that
advisories should be posted where needed. Some areas that are not
expected to reach advisory criteria based on snow/sleet
accumulations have been added to the advisory based on combined
snow/sleet totals and ice accretion.

[MJO812]

What a disaster turn of events . Nam looks to be leading the way 

[NJwx85]

14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

What a disaster turn of events . Nam looks to be leading the way 

It's been clear since Tuesday that nobody South of I-84 was going to see more than a few inches of snow. With that being said, inland areas are still going to see 3-6 hours of moderate to heavy snow before the changeover and that's why 2-6" is expected North of Rt 80. 

Now we turn to ice potential versus sleet.

The latest guidance is really dicey for the I-78-I-80-I-287 corridor. You might see some upgrades this afternoon if current trends continue.

 

[NJwx85]

Classic ZR sounding.

This is near the Suffern area at 13z Friday. 27 degrees at this point.

[wthrmn654]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Classic ZR sounding.

This is near the Suffern area at 13z Friday. 27 degrees at this point.

I always forget but bottom is surface level correct? Lol

[NJwx85]

3 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

I always forget but bottom is surface level correct? Lol

Yes, so from about 700 to 850mb the atmosphere is above freezing and then it's below freezing from about 900mb and down. This theoretically could be a mix of sleet and freezing rain but for more sleet you would want to see a much less pronounced warm tongue.

Below is a classic sleet sounding form the same model a few hours earlier. You can see it barely is above freezing but it's there around 750mb.

 

[hudsonvalley21]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Surface temperatures will be difficult to warm regardless so more ice possible. I'm hoping we stay on the positive side of freezing but it'll be close. 

Currently low 30s with dews in the teens. 

Currently 25 here.

[hudsonvalley21]

22 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Yes, so from about 700 to 850mb the atmosphere is above freezing and then it's below freezing from about 900mb and down. This theoretically could be a mix of sleet and freezing rain but for more sleet you would want to see a much less pronounced warm tongue.

Below is a classic sleet sounding form the same model a few hours earlier. You can see it barely is above freezing but it's there around 750mb.

 

Can you do a sounding for KSWF or KPOU.  Thanks 

[HVSnowLover]

This storm has been another exhausting one to track, what a waste of time and now looking like mostly rain LI/NYC (Although still not sure how warm the surface will really warm). Feel particularly bad for Ulster/Dutchess counties, south of their we knew it was dicey but this last minute trend may really shaft them.   

[NJwx85]

5 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

Can you do a sounding for KSWF or KPOU.  Thanks 

Point and click only, but this is centered over Orange County. Shows sleet at 12z but it's close to being freezing rain.

[NJwx85]

4 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

This storm has been another exhausting what to track, what a waste of time and now looking like mostly rain LI/NYC (Although still not sure how warm the surface will really warm). Feel particularly bad for Ulster/Dutchess counties, south of their we knew it was dicey but this last minute trend may really shaft them.   

I always find the tracking more fun than the actual storm.

With that being said, this was never a good setup for snow. The primary low makes it to at least Buffalo which is terrible for NYC.

And the ice threat looks more pronounced than the last event.

[hudsonvalley21]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Point and click only, but this is centered over Orange County. Shows sleet at 12z but it's close to being freezing rain.

Thanks  

[HVSnowLover]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

I always find the tracking more fun than the actual storm.

With that being said, this was never a good setup for snow. The primary low makes it to at least Buffalo which is terrible for NYC.

I was never expecting much snow but would have been perfectly satisfied with a sleet storm. 

[wthrmn654]

29 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Yes, so from about 700 to 850mb the atmosphere is above freezing and then it's below freezing from about 900mb and down. This theoretically could be a mix of sleet and freezing rain but for more sleet you would want to see a much less pronounced warm tongue.

Below is a classic sleet sounding form the same model a few hours earlier. You can see it barely is above freezing but it's there around 750mb.

 

Oh! I know what was throwing me off, that omega thing on the left showing the bottom at 1000 lol 

[hudsonvalley21]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

I always find the tracking more fun than the actual storm.

With that being said, this was never a good setup for snow. The primary low makes it to at least Buffalo which is terrible for NYC.

Agree. Folks were hoping for a secondary to form around Long Island sooner for that to take over. Looks like that won’t happen.

[wishcast_hater]

Snow showers up here right now. Ground white. Amazing that the NWS is saying it could sleet all the way up to Albany whereas yesterday the sleet line was lower Dutchess County. Still calling for 6-8 for me as of now. I will take it. 

[Brian5671]

10 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I always find the tracking more fun than the actual storm.

With that being said, this was never a good setup for snow. The primary low makes it to at least Buffalo which is terrible for NYC.

And the ice threat looks more pronounced than the last event.

Cold air already in place for this one for close to 24 hrs.  The last one had warmth preceding it right up to go time.

[NJwx85]

[HVSnowLover]

1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

It's been clear since Tuesday that nobody South of I-84 was going to see more than a few inches of snow. With that being said, inland areas are still going to see 3-6 hours of moderate to heavy snow before the changeover and that's why 2-6" is expected North of Rt 80. 

Now we turn to ice potential versus sleet.

The latest guidance is really dicey for the I-78-I-80-I-287 corridor. You might see some upgrades this afternoon if current trends continue.

 

Im not too excited for ZR after expecting sleet all week. Also temps go up to upper 30s/40 tomorrow so any ZR will melt immediately.  I'd almost rather plain rain at this point if not snow/sleet