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2022 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion Etc)


Kmlwx
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14 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Only the HRRR has anything decent for today and it's mostly south of DC. Would argue we all temper our expectations greatly.

Very messy radar now in WV. It's too early for this unfortunately if clouds or the activity itself moves into our area. Will be interested to see the 12z runs. 

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One encouraging sign is that my dewpoint has risen to the upper 60s (even pushing 70 at times). So the moisture has certainly advected back in. Some of the models that really didn't develop much instability seemed to have a dry pool of air in the area and especially in the eastern half of the area on earlier runs. However, I see dews are almost entirely into the mid to upper 60s across the area now...even low 70s in southern Maryland. 

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29 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Only the HRRR has anything decent for today and it's mostly south of DC. Would argue we all temper our expectations greatly.

       While I agree that we should keep expectations in check, I'm sure if I totally agree with the details of this take.    The NAM Nest has certainly hated today for most of us in multiple runs, but last night's HiResWs ARW2 and FV3 were fine.   And while the HRRR doesn't like the tier of counties along the PA border, several runs have been plenty active for Montgomery/Howard/Baltimore.      Shear is fine today;  the question will how much of a westerly component is in the 850 flow and whether the early morning convection messes things up - both are certainly plausible fail scenarios.

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Hopefully that WV activity can stay out there for the morning at the very least. I saw a few runs yesterday that brought activity in as early as 17z in spots. If we can prevent crapvection from forming closer in to the major metro - we might be okay. 

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5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

//time sensitive//

Take a look at the visible loop. Looks like a little swirl or vort max near Pittsburgh diving SE. Might be what's going to trigger our line this afternoon.

Certainly seems like all this messy convection about to come off the high terrain will be here very early. There's a lot of it too...not just a few cells. If that doesn't intensify it'll probably dampen our instability big time. 

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8 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Certainly seems like all this messy convection about to come off the high terrain will be here very early. There's a lot of it too...not just a few cells. If that doesn't intensify it'll probably dampen our instability big time. 

I have a feeling it's going to consolidate and intensify just as it hits Rt 15, and that will be the event for the day.

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15 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

TOR possible now on the King George, VA cell.

 

5 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

The fat lady is warming up for those of us not being impacted by the King George, VA cluster. HRRR continues to suck for this afternoon. 

I swear the dog-leg turn in the Potomac causes things to spin up down there more than normal. Anyone know if this has ever been looked into?

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