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February Medium/Long Range Discussion


snowmagnet
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4 hours ago, CAPE said:

I'll have to try that. I mostly get the mosquitoes under control by killing the larvae early. Always chiggers around though. Then there is the carpenter bee issue, although the traps keep them under control for the most part.

Which traps do you use?

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2 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB GEPS likes the end of the month too…perhaps we won’t have to wait for a mid March Hail Mary.

70DEE670-283F-4D0A-B33A-4F308265F913.png

I'm putting all of my chips in on the late February to Early March period for our biggest snowfall.  I have some ground to make up in the snowfall contest and this feels like a year for a fluke storm.  We're Fluke Due!:weenie:

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17 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

^woof, I dunno. Doesn’t look like any cold air around with Canada scoured out.

It's not bad, and given it looks like we will be baking on the EC prior that, this period might be the first chance for something to track underneath with some decent cold around.

1645876800-OH4EOaIibfc.png

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3 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

^woof, I dunno. Doesn’t look like any cold air around with Canada scoured out.

It would take something dynamic. But most March events do. March 2014 and 2015 was an extreme anomaly. Usually we need to get bombed with a perfect track or upper level pass. 

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11 hours ago, CAPE said:

I get mini depression thinking about the return of bugs and muggy Spring days, and all the work I will need to do outside. Inevitable.

I'm the opposite. I get anxiety thinking about how we're stuck in winter for another 4-6 weeks and I have no idea how I'm going to pass the time. Give me warm weather and all my outside projects and hobbies back soon please!!!

 

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8 minutes ago, Rockem_sockem_connection said:

I'm the opposite. I get anxiety thinking about how we're stuck in winter for another 4-6 weeks and I have no idea how I'm going to pass the time. Give me warm weather and all my outside projects and hobbies back soon please!!!

If you're located in Truth or Consequences, then isn't your average high already in the 60s by now? That should be warm enough for outdoor work.

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2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

It would take something dynamic. But most March events do. March 2014 and 2015 was an extreme anomaly. Usually we need to get bombed with a perfect track or upper level pass. 

Yea was gonna post earlier with the map Cape posted, would probably need a well timed shortwave, one ahead to flatten out the ridge, and then something behind to pass at a perfect location. I think we'll track an event in March, but it does look like hibernation for the next 10 plus days 

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15 hours ago, snowmagnet said:

Is that close enough to Bob’s “bowl”?  It’s a little misshapen, but maybe?

Could never pull it off this year. By the time the good windows for ensemble bowl looks hit reasonable belief ranges, reality was just another progressive steep hill amplification. 

Without a -AO it's hard to get the big bowl but def happens. 2013-15 had a lot of it. The most common scenario is the center of tpv dropping southward over MN or the lakes and not Dakotas or west then having any kind of ridge extension above it to make it travel laterally and not punch back north like the default track. Carves out a deep cold bowl of air where NS vorts either have to go over or under it but not thru it. Just couldn't pull it off. Got close even in real time but never got right (yet, still time. Bowls can happen thru late March)

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18 minutes ago, Ji said:

12z 384 is a trackable threat

The advertised h5 pattern on the means does get back to something manageable by the end of the month or more likely into the first few days of March as heights build into AK and western Canada. Probably nothing worth tracking over the next 10 days.

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6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The advertised h5 pattern on the means does get back to something manageable by the end of the month or more likely into the first few days of March as heights build into AK and western Canada. Probably nothing worth tracking over the next 10 days.

The ensembles really keep thinking we’ll get into a -EPO gradient pattern eventually!! Been advertising it for weeks now and perpetually been D10+ away. What I do takeaway is increasing confidence that Canada will NOT be entirely flushed with Pac air, so hopefully we can tap a solid airmass again at some point after 2/25.

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