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2022 Atlantic Hurricane season


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7 minutes ago, Normandy said:

Season already has been disastrous.  Members who still talk about seasonal busts should be 5-posted instantly.

Everyone was predicting an ABOVE AVERAGE season of 17-8-4, are we seeing this? No. 9-4-2 is this seasons totals so far and the setup for Oct isn't impressive, it's safe say to that in terms of storm numbers and ACE, this season will be average. The only 2 major hurricanes made significant impacts and that's the only reason anyone will remember this season. I'll say it again an impactful season doesn't have to be an active season.

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2 minutes ago, Tallis Rockwell said:

Everyone was predicting an ABOVE AVERAGE season of 17-8-4, are we seeing this? No. 9-4-2 is this seasons totals so far and the setup for Oct isn't impressive, it's safe say to that in terms of storm numbers and ACE, this season will be average. The only 2 major hurricanes made significant impacts and that's the only reason anyone will remember this season. I'll say it again an impactful season doesn't have to be an active season.

 

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12 minutes ago, Normandy said:

The season is not over.  I don’t know how else to illustrate to people this point.  It’s maddening

The parameters for Oct doesn't look favorable with more cold fronts and dry air, while another big storm is possible but unless we see an October like 2020 or 2005, we're not going to break average numbers

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On 9/18/2022 at 6:54 PM, GaWx said:

 There are a significant number (nearly 25%) of 12Z EPS members landfalling on the CONUS 9/29-10/2 as hurricanes or as a strong TS from TX through NC with also a couple of still offshore threats. At least half of these hit the FL Gulf coast, which is my #1 risk area this season based on third year cold ENSO analogs. Being that this was a more active EPS run than prior ones, I wouldn't be surprised if most of the next ones over the next few days aren't as active. Regardless, this will more than likely be the next potential threat period on the CONUS.

Good call

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On 9/27/2022 at 12:21 PM, Tallis Rockwell said:

Everyone was predicting another hyperactive system which we are still not seeing, 1 or 2 major landfalls doesn't mean the season is active. Let's say that there are only 4 hurricanes for a season but that all make landfalls, does it sudden;y make the season active? Of course not. An impactful season doesn't have to be an active season.

ACE is ALREADY NEAR-NORMAL.

 

  

On 9/27/2022 at 2:02 PM, Tallis Rockwell said:

we're not going to break average numbers

WE ALREADY DID

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Looking ahead, models are in agreement that another AEW will be emerging in a couple days which will develop in the eastern Atlantic. Kinda surprised the NHC hasn't lemoned it yet since all models show it developing in less than 5 days. Euro and icon have it riding low, GFS and CMC have it quickly curving out. 

Longer range, GFS is hinting at another Caribbean storm, bombing it out on the 06z run to 922 mb...

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On 9/27/2022 at 3:25 PM, Normandy said:

Season already has been disastrous.  Members who still talk about seasonal busts should be 5-posted instantly.

Based  on preseason forecasts  such as 20/10/5 it  is a  bust. It will however  be a  memorable season for a  long time due to Ian. Euro shows a very  late season MDR storm.

 

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2022092900&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=192hr

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28 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

Based  on preseason forecasts  such as 20/10/5 it  is a  bust. It will however  be a  memorable season for a  long time due to Ian. Euro shows a very  late season MDR storm.

 

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2022092900&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=192hr

Dude the point is stop throwing in the towel early every time.

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1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Dude the point is stop throwing in the towel early every time.

I was saying all along the season was depending  on 1 storm to form that would  make  it  memorable. It  happened this  time. JB is saying 1 more between where fiona  and  ian went

 

 

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The pattern flipped late, but it flipped. We may be facing an active October. We aren't going to reach hyperactive for the season, but active/above normal is looking like a lock. We are now in a +AMO setup. If this had occurred in August as was previously forecasted by seasonal outlooks, the year probably would have ended up hyperactive. Wave breaking issues aside, this is a classic look...


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We are at 8/4/2 and have no idea how active October and November are going to be.  A season busting is not one that falls a bit short of expectations.  People need to stop this whole “need to make a claim first just so I can be the first to say if and be right” mentality.  It’s makes you look stupid.

if we are at thanksgiving eating turkey and sitting on 11/5/2….. that’s a bust

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Going into October it is getting pretty late to get something forming just past the CVs to make it all the way.  Do we have 11 NS with a PTC and a TD? I think the fishing lemon, if named, would get us to 10 NS.  I could be wrong, it has happened before.

 

Look for the Caribbean.  Euro and GFS ensembles have a few members with storms, but nothing painfully obvious down there next 10 days but after that, MJO is not in the right place yet, but headed there.

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4 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Recurve city that far out this time of year?

 Going back to the known tracks since 1851, the latest on record that a TC formed in the MDR east of 50W and then later hit the CONUS was Sept. 25th (that was in 1893 and hit SC as a MH in mid Oct.) The 2nd latest formed on Sept 21st. We're looking at something possibly forming in the E MDR ~1 week later than Sept 25th. If it does, I'd bet very heavily based on over 150 years of history that it wouldn't threaten the CONUS. But if it waits til after 50W, then that would be a somewhat different story.

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I know this is not what residents in the Greater Antilles and along the Southeast US coast want to hear after Fiona and Ian respectively dealt them a severe blow, but looks to me that early Oct will be quite active, and not just in the usual W. Caribbean hurricane breeding grounds for this time of year.

 

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