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2022 Atlantic Hurricane season


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The models showing so little Cape Verde activity is interesting (and spooky, because perhaps this will be a west based peak season).  Will have to watch closely and see if this comes to fruition over the rest of the month. 

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Meanwhile, this  latest  super wave  has trended weaker and weaker  on all models. At the  very  best  its a short  lived  nothing. This wasnt advertised as a season without  MDR canes. As far as that group of showers  off the se  coast if this  were  just a  normal season it  might  have a  chance to sit there and develop. It isnt a  normal season, its a dead season with a huge  west ATL trof. That  means  nothing will be able to be trapped  off the  se  coast and develop. For that to happen you  need a  locked  in High over the  NW ATL. With a trof all you  can possibly  get  is a  very  weak strung  out  low  ripping  NE with no chance to be anything  more than a weak depression that  CANT threaten the  US. Here  is  a  perfect example  of what this  hideous  pattern can produce.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_40.png

What  do we see? The  never ending trof  off the  coast  is what  we see  with another trof ripping east to reinforce  it. On the  offshore trof  we  have 2 very  weak lows trying to form, but thats all they can ever  be  because there  is  no blocking  high to keep them in place to develop. They just  get stretched  out NE and will never amount to anything. And once  once  once once again the whole  pattern, no moisture  in the  MDR, mega west atl trof, all models agreeing there will be  no MDR season, and the  latest  ballyhooed wave never amounting to anything makes the CFS quite  believable. I will leave you all on a  positive  note  however. See that one blue  line  in the  upper right  corner? Thats winter  baby!! That will eventually  put an early  end to this  miserable  bust  of a season.

 

*It would certainly  be  nice  if some  of the pro mets  on here can explain how the season is still going to be active.

 

And here  is the  map 24 hours  later.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_44.png

 

We see the same  2 areas that were trying to develop. They CANT and WONT because  yet again we  have a  monster trof  blasting  off the east  coast. Even in the totally dead season of  1986 we  had  hurricane Charley form off  NC and  hit as a cat1 in NC and SE VA because  it  had time to organize.

 

I  have alot  of respect for  Larry Cosgrove. He  has been the  only  met  who early  on recognized the reality  of the season.

 

https://groups.google.com/g/weatheramerica/c/gT3GLZPcgow

 

"The major islands, Caribbean Sea nations, and the Eastern Seaboard all have prominent windows for a named storm or hurricane strike in a window between August 23 and October 15. But I will repeat that the number of storms will likely be reduced from the two years past, since the Maximum Development Region convection will be reduced, and chances for a Gulf Coast impact are crushed because the heat ridge complex will either be over Texas or the "Four Corners". Steering and subsidence can greatly reduce your chances at seeing a prominent tropical cyclone. Despite whatever you read on an internet weather forum or because waters near your community are incredibly warm."

 

I hope  he  is right about the eastern seaboard though that  wont  happen unless  or  until  a locked  in ridge replaces the trof. He  is certainly right about a Gulf coast  impact  being highly  unlikely.

 

Finally  its  LC vs JB

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, cptcatz said:

Can't wait til ldub eats his/her words. I'm just gonna leave this post here from August 10, 2017Screenshot_20220807-141839_Chrome.thumb.jpg.fc5c8dfb04bc7464cd17d7f6d5e84a77.jpg

Year after year, the dumbest takes. Said it before, I remember them from easternuswx and maybe even wright-weather "rainstorm VA" or something like that.  lol

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1 hour ago, cptcatz said:

Can't wait til ldub eats his/her words. I'm just gonna leave this post here from August 10, 2017Screenshot_20220807-141839_Chrome.thumb.jpg.fc5c8dfb04bc7464cd17d7f6d5e84a77.jpg

Joe, much like David , are excellent at discussing the Synoptics of what is required for hurricanes and big snows but they are both poor in assessing if the upcoming situation is what will produce one. 

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22 hours ago, ldub23 said:

Atlantic ridge totally  gone. Just when the experts are all in unison on the favorable  conditions arriving we get  stuck with a  massive central atlantic  low and no ridging. What  a  piece  of crap dead season. Have the  "experts  been more wrong?

DT-"August  will be sideways" NOPE

JB-Fast and  furious watch-NOPE

Another  1954-NOPE

The Wheel-NOPE

CSU-18/8/4 Still way too high

 

At least  winter time  conditions will arrive early  putting an end to the Non-season.

 

Next up: The super duper awesome fantastic favorable  condidtions will arrive  by  Sept 15. Without ridging  it  doesnt  matter  how  many canes form. Its all zippity doo dah bebop east  of  Bermuda.

 

And while the Atlantic ridge said "So long, Suckers" the  overall pattern  remains. Mega west ATL trof. This  is why im confident of a  very  early  ending  season.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_57.png

Why do you want storms?  They are destructive.  Seems we should be embracing a quiet season, if we end up with one.

 

Side note, I am heading New Orleans in early September, so I am welcoming a slow season.  I have been checking this forum to see what may be going on as September approaches.

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1 hour ago, Ahoff said:

Why do you want storms?  They are destructive.  Seems we should be embracing a quiet season, if we end up with one.

 

Side note, I am heading New Orleans in early September, so I am welcoming a slow season.  I have been checking this forum to see what may be going on as September approaches.

Big weather obsession...If ya look closely, it's all over these boards, lol

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10 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Rooting for hyperactive seasons is weird considering the increased risks for death if the storm hits land.

Why are any of us on this website if we don't enjoy watching the extremes of weather?  The way I see it, it makes no difference what you root for since it has zero impact on what will happen.

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21 minutes ago, tiger_deF said:

Given how bearish the board is I was suprised to see our AOI off of Africa looking pretty healthy

20220807_221739.gif

 I'm still giving it a 2 in 3 shot at becoming at least a TD. The board may not be as bearish as you think once you ignore the troll.

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9 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

Year after year, the dumbest takes. Said it before, I remember them from easternuswx and maybe even wright-weather "rainstorm VA" or something like that.  lol

 Way back in the WW days (~20 years ago), this poster went by the name "jxdama" with what I recall was an avatar of a woman with an American flag scarf. That may have covered 2003, when he/she got blasted by Isabel in the VA Beach/Norfolk area after giving the entire east coast the all clear just a few days before. Thankfully he/she was ok. At some point, he or she began posting as the infamous and everyone's favorite "rainstorm", possibly with the same avatar but I'm not sure. I can't recall if this name change was when Eastern started or before, but I'm guessing it was when Eastern started. This poster used to also post at Storm2k with a different name.

 @WEATHER53 may remember a lot of this.

 jx/rs/ldub is "world renowned" to be about as "good" a troll as they come and I admit sometimes makes me laugh because it is often so over the top/silly. The key is to not take the posts too seriously. I bet ldub is often laughing bigtime behind the scenes. By the way, I think he/she really is quite smart and knowledgeable despite the trolling dumb takes. One year rainstorm actually won the Eastern tropical contest! I remember because I ran it. I don't think it was even close. It was hilarious! Rainstorm won it because it was she/he picked pretty bearish and it turned out to be the most bearish season in years.

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1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 Way back in the WW days (~20 years ago), this poster went by the name "jxdama" with what I recall was an avatar of a woman with an American flag scarf. That may have covered 2003, when he/she got blasted by Isabel in the VA Beach/Norfolk area after giving the entire east coast the all clear just a few days before. Thankfully he/she was ok. At some point, he or she began posting as the infamous and everyone's favorite "rainstorm", possibly with the same avatar but I'm not sure. I can't recall if this name change was when Eastern started or before, but I'm guessing it was when Eastern started. This poster used to also post at Storm2k with a different name.

 @WEATHER53 may remember a lot of this.

 jx/rs/ldub is "world renowned" to be about as "good" a troll as they come and I admit sometimes makes me laugh because it is often so over the top/silly. The key is to not take the posts too seriously. I bet ldub is often laughing bigtime behind the scenes. By the way, I think he/she really is quite smart and knowledgeable despite the trolling dumb takes. One year rainstorm actually won the Eastern tropical contest! I remember because I ran it. I don't think it was even close. It was hilarious! Rainstorm won it because it was she/he picked pretty bearish and it turned out to be the most bearish season in years.

over-the-top is right.  I think they had a heart shaped avatar for a while. You have to think there is something type of damage or fragmented mental state to do it for 20 years straight, though.   There's not even a wide audience for the trolling anymore here.  

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11 hours ago, cptcatz said:

Why are any of us on this website if we don't enjoy watching the extremes of weather?  The way I see it, it makes no difference what you root for since it has zero impact on what will happen.

Well said, and tornado chasers beg and pray for F5's to get videos to sell. Winter weather kills more than hurricanes. Sunny weather kills people.. Now here is the perfect pattern and the GFS has a cat 2 almost on top of me. But, somehow it doesnt get turned by the low at 240 hours and the GFS has been showing canes here and there for several weeks. At 0Z it had a storm hitting the GOM thata gone at 06Z.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_55.png

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2 hours ago, Cary_Snow95 said:

As expected GFS is trending towards other guidance with a weaker system 

 

image.thumb.gif.aa353d675cff58c2f4144302fbe2815b.gif

Nothingburger in a sea  of dry air with the locked and  loaded  central atlantic  low making this 1983. If this  is the  best this  crummy clump of  clouds  can do i dont  count this as the  beginning  of the season. Nothing  behind the wave either due to the central atlantic  low. Amazing that i wanted a  pattern change and got  one, and  it was even worse than before, lol. This is the  peak of the season? Nothing?

 

Oh, and this  is  for    the ghouls who pray for  snow and  cold  in the winter.

 

  • Each year in the United States, about 1,330 people die of cold exposure, essentially freezing to death. You may picture outdoor adventurers dying of hypothermia on snowy mountaintops. While rates are higher in rural areas, many cold-related deaths and illnesses occur in cities too.
www.publichealthpost.org/research/counting-cold-related-deaths-new-york-city/

The Dangers of Cold Weather - Public Health Post

 

 

For some reason this  picture wont display but  if you  click on it the ATL is as dead as a  rusty doorknob. BUT!!! IS THAT A WHEEL IM SEEING?

 

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2022080812&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=192hr

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1 hour ago, ldub23 said:

This is the  peak of the season? Nothing?

No, August 8 is not the peak of the season.  It's not even a month away from the peak of the season.  Try again.

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41 minutes ago, Cary_Snow95 said:

image.thumb.png.1490d5f3f8d50a494258fe5c8b3b7fa9.png
End of Euro continues to advertise major outbreaks of dry air 

Im cancelling the Fast and Furious watch and replacing  it with a Dry as a bone warning. I feel sorry  for the  poor waves in Africa. Before they head  off the  coast  into the Sahara i hope they have their  wills  up to date. At  least  i can see signs  of the wheel showing  up. East  pac  has 3 areas  of  interest and 1 hurricane while the ATL has this.

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15 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Way back in the WW days (~20 years ago), this poster went by the name "jxdama" with what I recall was an avatar of a woman with an American flag scarf. That may have covered 2003, when he/she got blasted by Isabel in the VA Beach/Norfolk area after giving the entire east coast the all clear just a few days before. Thankfully he/she was ok. At some point, he or she began posting as the infamous and everyone's favorite "rainstorm", possibly with the same avatar but I'm not sure. I can't recall if this name change was when Eastern started or before, but I'm guessing it was when Eastern started. This poster used to also post at Storm2k with a different name.

 @WEATHER53 may remember a lot of this.

 jx/rs/ldub is "world renowned" to be about as "good" a troll as they come and I admit sometimes makes me laugh because it is often so over the top/silly. The key is to not take the posts too seriously. I bet ldub is often laughing bigtime behind the scenes. By the way, I think he/she really is quite smart and knowledgeable despite the trolling dumb takes. One year rainstorm actually won the Eastern tropical contest! I remember because I ran it. I don't think it was even close. It was hilarious! Rainstorm won it because it was she/he picked pretty bearish and it turned out to be the most bearish season in years.

Wait, rainstorm is ldub?  I thought they were different people.

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