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January 28-29, 2022 Miller abcdefu Storm Threat


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10 hours ago, stormtracker said:

To all members,

I feel like I need to apologize to you all for what happened earlier.  I'm sorry.  I lost my temper.  I'm not going to blame a "bad day" or some external reason.  There is no reason or excuse. I just lost it and I'm sorry y'all had to see it.  I can't say it was behavior unbecoming of an admin because let's face it, I suck as an admin and I don't even look at myself as one.  I'm only an admin because I co-founded this board.  Yeah, I joke about banning people, but most of you all know it's just that...jokes.  Thank God @IronTy wife isn't the sole owner of this board, because after this morning,  she'd be driving down 95 to pay me a visit.    With that said, I'm opting out of pbp.  Not because of what happened today (well mostly not), it's because I'm just sick of this see-sawing GD storm.   

Again, apologies to the board.

You do not suck as an Administrator. In fact I think you are the best Administrator on an online message board, that I have ever known. I believe many on here would agree.

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Just now, jewell2188 said:

And of course DT with the update when Richmond gets snow :rolleyes:

To his credit he has been giving fairly consistent updates with this storm even when things were pretty much nothing for RIC.  Posted about that last night/early am

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3 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

America hasn't won a war since 1945.. feeling pretty confident that the GFS folds here. 

You forgot about Grenada.

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3 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said:

I might be reading this wrong, but it looks like the Canadian has the low tracking inside the Outer Banks:

 

00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_072.thumb.jpg.24336bb41ea502f197dec9e8c21bf88c.jpg

It’s deceptive. The center is the dot below the L. So it’s due south of OBX and based on the height lines heading NE or NNE depending on the next few frames. 

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Air mass Rgb looks good now from historical outcome perspective.   Later on to so tn border I hope. . Next front of bitter cold seems to be holding north move to limited.

Maybe  this just slides to Nc/Va border and not so much have to hop over mountains and redevelop too far out, 

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GEM looks fairly similar to NAM, a big hit for the coastal regions, some snow back to west of DC, probably in the 3-6" range for DC, 6-8" BAL, 10-20" DMV. 

Can't see all this energy interacting with the warm water to produce a GFS result, seems to ignore the development at 500 mb. If there were extra upper air obs they weren't plotted on the 00z CMC maps by the way. In the past when I've heard about these extra obs, they show up in the investigation zone on the maps. 

I think if the ECM is not a clone of the GFS then the GFS will have to be taken as dubious guidance, if ECM looks like GFS then we wait for a decision tomorrow. 

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