RDRY Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, Monmouth_County_Jacpot said: No double low so there’s that It's still there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 GFS still gives all of suffolk a foot +. East end still good for 18+. Biggest cutback was really for SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 23 minutes ago, EasternLI said: The gfs was not even close with this evolution. What's the final outcome going to be anyway? It hasn't happened yet. Curious to see how the 18z euro handles this too. This is one of the largest rug pulls I've ever seen on models the day of a storm. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, Rjay said: This is one of the biggest rug pulls I've ever seen on models the day of a storm. You will still get 16"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, Rjay said: This is one of the largest rug pulls I've ever seen on models the day of a storm. Watch 00z swing back with heavy hits across the board. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 10 minutes ago, psv88 said: Too bad we dont live at 20,000 feet Time to get high dude 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: This is one of the largest rug pulls I've ever seen on models the day of a storm. Storm bust? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 I’m still reasonably optimistic I get 12” in Long Beach where I’ll be. But normally with a look like that aloft I’d be thinking 18”. Maybe we should get in a boat and head 500 miles east to go storm chasing later with the amount of energy this convection is supposed to steal. Im hoping it’s overdone but I’m not the one with the Ph.D to be able to tell one way or the other. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, Rjay said: This is one of the largest rug pulls I've ever seen on models the day of a storm. This is… pretty crazy. I thought warm Atlantic waters are supposed to help storms, not make them sheared out garbage? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, Rjay said: This is one of the largest rug pulls I've ever seen on models the day of a storm. Brutal situation for modeling. If this thing fails. We could have a lot of the sne crew wash ashore after leaping into the sound. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Jet dynamics look amazing 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Final Call won't get too caught up in models and will only slightly tweak thoughts from earlier today/this has a lot of variability Suffolk 12-24 (Isolated 24+ possible) Nassau 10-15 (possibly higher with banding) Brooklyn/Queens/Staten Island 8-12 (possibly higher with banding) Bronx/Mahattan 6-10 (possibly higher with banding) NW of NYC up to 287- 5-8 (possibly higher with banding) 287 to 84- 3-6 (possibly higher with banding) North of 84 West of Hudson (1-3)- possibly higher with ratios North of 84 East of Hudson- 3-6 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Brutal situation for modeling. If this thing fails. We could have a lot of the sne crew wash ashore after leaping into the sound. Well if we semi get screwed, i hope as hell they get ****ed too. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, Rmine1 said: Storm bust? No idea. Strictly speaking about what I'm seeing on the models. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 I think the time to look at models is past and that’s not a bad thing by the way they have jerked the solutions but shouldn’t we all be looking at the radar or calling friends and family down south and see what is actually happening right now and compare it to what these models were showing ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 So in their 4:30 disco, Upton upped totals, at least for my area. Primarily due to better ratios. What are they not seeing? Honest question. Where’s Wdrag to share his experience Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, Rmine1 said: So in their 4:30 disco, Upton upped totals, at least for my area. Primarily due to better ratios. What are they not seeing? Honest question. Where’s Wdrag to share his experience If the winds really aren't a big deal this will be extremely high ratio snow from NYC on northwest where everyone will be in the teens. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said: If the winds really aren't a big deal this will be extremely high ratio snow from NYC on northwest where everyone will be in the teens. A met told me he is expecting 18:1 N and W. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, USCG RS said: Seems to me that the Mets in the NE forum are all kinda pulling the plug. NE folks were hoping for a record breaking storm, so I guess 12 to 18 inches seems lame to them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, HVSnowLover said: If the winds really aren't a big deal this will be extremely high ratio snow from NYC on northwest where everyone will be in the teens. Yes agree, but there’s a “total miss/bust” camp that is gaining members it seems. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzLuv Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Central NJ still seems a wildcard - as well as the western cutoff? Supposed to head out to Harrisburg tomorrow morning. Wondering how bad it will be at home and how far west will have to deal with it on the drive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 6 minutes ago, Rjay said: No idea. Strictly speaking about what I'm seeing on the models. Not used to this side of you, not that I really know you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 7 minutes ago, Metasequoia said: NE folks were hoping for a record breaking storm, so I guess 12 to 18 inches seems lame to them. Did you did BOX's afd? I'd be losing my mind too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Upton actually upped totals slightly for the city so they must be seeing something the models aren't. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, Metasequoia said: NE folks were hoping for a record breaking storm, so I guess 12 to 18 inches seems lame to them. Yeah - that is why I actually just pulled my post. I misunderstood what they were saying. BOX AFD is all in however. Heck of write up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, Rjay said: Did you did BOX's and? I'd be losing my mind too. https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 LOL SNE ‘s are literally bridge jumping because they went from 24+ to 12-18”. Wish we had that problem. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveTinNY Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 8 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Final Call won't get too caught up in models and will only slightly tweak thoughts from earlier today/this has a lot of variability Suffolk 12-24 (Isolated 24+ possible) Nassau 10-15 (possibly higher with banding) Brooklyn/Queens/Staten Island 8-12 (possibly higher with banding) Bronx/Mahattan 6-10 (possibly higher with banding) NW of NYC up to 287- 5-8 (possibly higher with banding) 287 to 84- 3-6 (possibly higher with banding) North of 84 West of Hudson (1-3)- possibly higher with ratios North of 84 East of Hudson- 3-6 Snow blower's staged. Central Rockland County, just an "inch" above 287. Feel any banding could give us that potential boost beyond 8". Glad it's not my working weekend.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 HIGHLIGHTS... * WE NOW HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A HISTORIC MAJOR WINTER STORM FOR EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 FT SNOWFALL WITH LOCALIZED 3 FT IS LIKELY FOR EASTERN MA AND RI ALONG WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. * SNOWFALL RATES COULD REACH 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSNOW ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RI. * IN ADDITION TO POTENTIAL HISTORICAL SNOWFALL, STRONG WINDS UP TO HURRICANE FORCE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WILL LEAD TO BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING. DETAILS... HEAVY SNOWFALL/EXTREME SNOWFALL RATES... MODELS HAVE NOW COME INTO CONSENSUS FOR A HISTORICAL BLIZZARD TO IMPACT EASTERN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT, WITH AN IMPRESSIVE 40 MB PRESSURE DROP IN 24 HOURS AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM EAST OF THE CAROLINAS TO THE 70W/40N BENCHMARK. FOR REFERENCE, A BOMB CYCLONE'S CRITERIA IS A DROP OF 24 MB IN 24 HOURS. AT THIS POINT WITHIN 24 HOURS OF THE STORM, WE ARE NOW IN THE TIME FRAME WHERE THE NAM GENERALLY PERFORMS WELL DURING AN EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS EVENT. WE NOW HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN EXCEPTIONAL TO EXTREME SNOWFALL RATES WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSNOW ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RI. SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST BAND, HOWEVER. BOTH NAM AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW OVER 50 UNITS OF OMEGA COINCIDING WITH THE FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH REGION. GIVEN THAT A DOUBLE BARREL LOW COULD DEVELOP WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN EYE- LIKE FEATURE AT SOME POINT, WHEREVER THE MESOSCALE SNOW BAND SETS UP COULD SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR 5 INCHES PER HOUR ESPECIALLY WHEN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. IF A DEFORMATION BAND CAN PERSIST WHEN THE ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES LATER IN THE DAY, SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS (SLRS) COULD BE AS HIGH AS 20-25 TO 1. THEREFORE, WE FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE TO INTRODUCE AN AREA OF 24 TO 30 INCHES STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS BAND COULD SET UP FURTHER WEST, OR THERE MAY BE TWO BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN BETWEEN. EITHER WAY, WE ARE CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AT TIMES ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN MA AND RI. STRONG WINDS/BLOWING SNOW... WITH 925MB WINDS AT 65-70 KTS OR 4 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO GEFS AND NAEFS SITUATIONAL AWARENESS TABLE AND COMBINED WITH EXCELLENT MIXING, THERE WILL BE HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS AT TIMES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND 50-60 MPH GUSTS FURTHER INLAND. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO WIDESPREAD DRIFTING AND BLOWING OF SNOW WITH LOCALIZED SNOW DRIFTS OF UP TO 4 FT OR HIGHER. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S, WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RATHER WIDESPREAD BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RI, INCLUDING THE PROVIDENCE TO BOSTON CORRIDOR. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE I-95 OR EVEN THE I-495 CORRIDOR ENDS UP WITH A SECONDARY LOCAL SNOWFALL MAXIMA. THE SILVER LINING IS THAT BECAUSE WE ARE DEALING WITH DRY POWDERY FLUFF, THERE IS LESS OF A CONCERN FOR SNOW LOADING ISSUES EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET DUE TO THE COASTAL FRONT. POWER OUTAGE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE HIGHEST ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS, WHERE THE WARMER TEMPS WOULD LEAD TO HEAVIER AND WETTER SNOW AND CONSEQUENTLY HIGHER SNOW LOADING. WITH 70 MPH WINDS, POWER OUTAGES WILL BE LIKELY. THERE IS SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE HOW FAR WEST THE HEAVY SNOW OVERSPREADS AND THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WE CANNOT BE ENTIRELY SURE UNTIL THE MESOSCALE BAND SETS UP AS THE STORM GETS GOING TOMORROW MORNING. WHILE WE DO THINK THAT PLYMOUTH COUNTY IS STILL GOING TO END UP WITH ONE OF THE HIGHEST TOTALS FOR THIS STORM, HOWEVER, THE SLRS MAY BE AFFECTED BY THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE'S LESS THAN IDEAL COINCIDENCE WITH THE BEST OMEGA RESULTING IN RIMING AND THE FACT THAT THE HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS COULD BREAK UP DENDRITES. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: A met told me he is expecting 18:1 N and W. Projected qpf output has been steady & consistent up here. Pretty much 0.25-0.35. Factor in high ratios and we have ourselves a decent event. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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