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Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

I’m deleting all that crap. Anyone make a political references in the wx thread again, I’ll just can them for 5 days. We are the most lenient subforum on here….but everyone should know better than to

bristolri_wx
bristolri_wx

My apologies if this is off topic… As we hit 380 pages on this thread, and we wait for the 18z Euro, I just want to express my gratitude to everyone who participates in these threads. The communi

George001
George001

Ok I’ve seen enough to make my preliminary forecast. Now that the Navy is on board, I am very confident that this low isn’t going to disappear. The question is not going to be out to sea or benchmark

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Posted
1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah that wouldn’t have too many screw zones once all was said and done. 

It's funny how that works when you get the pivoting band phenomenon. The storm's ballast comes in two passes: going west...coming back est. Mighty squalls within may last 2-3 hrs. It may snow 1-3"/hr ... maybe even 2-4".  But in between, turbine wind gust pushing blowing snow mixes S- merely keeps the mystique going ... but the accumulation can really slack off outside the band, even though the air still looks milky out of window. 

But, the real VIP storms of lore, they don't do that as as much?  They seem to have more like moderate footprints, with embedded S++ band(s) that amorphously nest with less obvious gradation.  Plenty of examples of those... 

I think back to Jan 2005, and the Boxing Day storm in 2010 as a couple of examples, where Middlesex Co ended up "sorta" screwed. The storm set up bands west and east, and then the western came through and gave us 4-6", but because it hung around the pivot west of us for twice as long, they were able to clock 16" out that way. Meanwhile, the SE was cashing in on both a band and CF superposition stuff...  Between those regions, we ended up with a solid storm, but it was JV compared.   2005 was also g-wave related but ..that's a whole' nother complexity ha!   

 

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PhineasC

PhineasC

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Would love to see this thread get unhinged.

I think you just might. A lot riding on 12z right now. People hanging by threads all over the place.

The SE MA crew may need to split off their own thread the way NNE does it. LOL imagine the anger when one of them shows up and says they are bored by 18" of snow and wishes it was rain for the lush grass instead?

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DJln491

DJln491

Posted
Posted

Excuse the newbness but are these run times accurate?

All times EST

GFS (out to 384 hours)
0z: 10:30pm
6z: 4:30am
12z: 10:30am
18z: 4:30pm

NAM (out to 84 hours)
0z: 8:35pm
6z: 2:35am
12z: 8:35am
18z: 2:35pm

CMC (out to 180 hours)
0z: 12:00am
12z : 12:00pm

UKMET (out to 72 hours)
0z: 12:30am
12z: 12:30pm

ECMWF (EURO) (out to 240 hours)
0z: 1:30am
12z: 1:30pm

 

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jbenedet

jbenedet

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Getting caught up.  I'm still back here on pg 146.   Not a bad analysis on your part, but re the bold statement above:

I agree, that is crucial leading parametric as this approaches the EC en masse.  But, that could be enhanced(reduced) based upon the S/stream contribution as it fuses with the descending N/stream goodies.  

Euro has more

GFS has less

Now that may be so that the model 'notoriously' do the less?   However,  One aspect that comes to mind for me ( or back to mind and was forgotten - ), is this propensity in most guidance now spanning years, to consummately correct systems from the intensity side of the spectrum toward less, when relaying mid range handling toward inner times.  So, that seems to be a competing concept to that bold statement. 

And admittedly ... it is anecdotal, but it's a frustratingly glaring persistent tendency/ is a repeating observation for me.  

This thing really cannot afford to get weaker, or it will collapse to those means that are too at sea at this point. It's an scenario where, as we get closer, it seem the only way to get this storm is to have the handful of members that are very intense and west, win. 

I noticed the Euro shaved 6 mb off all positions, some depth in the 500 mb deepest ... but no one mentioned that, because the snow QPF seems to be a distraction?  But, this could be a beginning of it going E.  I've seen it do this before, where it offers a model cycle where it's "attitude" gets torpid first, then it reshuffles.   

If more s/w ridge is rolling out ahead, it tends to cap early convection ferocity ahead of the q-v forcing ... The impetus being, if that flares off hugely right away, and the flow is flattish leaving the coast, it will rip NE out E of the 70 W longitude and stress the baroclinic field... limiting/robbing cyclogenesis back closer to said trough forcing.  That is what the GFS is/had been what the GFS operational has been designing.  Folks ( not you ..) need to realize, a deeper robuster cyclogen closer to the actual synoptic forcing, not relying on the volatile air and simpler triggers first ..., has physical height falls associated, that feed back constructively on the total manifold of the system. That's what the Euro's been suggesting.. .but, the your has been shaving 4-6 mb off the intensity since that mega run 24/36 hours ago, which is a sign that it slipping some of that efficiency - at some point...it might break.

Just trying to be fair and objective.  

Good points. I like a balanced discussion.

As I watch the 12z NAM roll to hr 42 and also look at that trend Gif I posted of the GFS—look at that pacific ridge axis-now as far west as Vancouver at that hr. Never say never, but this is NOT a long-wave spacing/setup for down east ME and Nova Scotia, to take the brunt. To my mind the betting risk is highly asymmetric in favor of west of current guidance.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

do you think we start to see some waa precip beef up on the models as we get closer? seems like with the biggies, that was always something we looked out for

If it closes off south of us and captures a bit....yes, I think we'd probably see that.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I think you just might. A lot riding on 12z right now. People hanging by threads all over the place.

The SE MA crew may need to split off their own thread the way NNE does it. LOL imagine the anger when one of them shows up and says they are bored by 18" of snow and wishes it was rain for the lush grass instead?

Well, There is a lot of younger guys (and girls possibly) in here, I wan to say act like you've been here before but some may not have............:lol:

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AWMT30

AWMT30

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, DJln491 said:

Excuse the newbness but are these run times accurate?

All times EST

GFS (out to 384 hours)
0z: 10:30pm
6z: 4:30am
12z: 10:30am
18z: 4:30pm

NAM (out to 84 hours)
0z: 8:35pm
6z: 2:35am
12z: 8:35am
18z: 2:35pm

CMC (out to 180 hours)
0z: 12:00am
12z : 12:00pm

UKMET (out to 72 hours)
0z: 12:30am
12z: 12:30pm

ECMWF (EURO) (out to 240 hours)
0z: 1:30am
12z: 1:30pm

 

Euro rolls at 1245 am/pm 

CMC rolls around 1130am/pm 

Ukie Rolls around 1145am/pm 

other than that you are correct on the model times for the GFS and NAM 

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

I think the GEFS and the UK being so far offshore (plus a fairly far east NAM) definitely are red flags today. Want to see some sizable jumps toward the Euro.

My gut is a Euro-esque solution is more likely but need some 12z jumps. The Euro isn't quite the king it once was. 

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Sn0waddict

Sn0waddict

Posted
Posted
Just now, CT Rain said:

I think the GEFS and the UK being so far offshore (plus a fairly far east NAM) definitely are red flags today. Want to see some sizable jumps toward the Euro.

My gut is a Euro-esque solution is more likely but need some 12z jumps. The Euro isn't quite the king it once was. 

Looks to me like the 12z NAM is about to come more west than it’s 6z run. 

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