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Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Yeah I agree with this. The jet stream evolution just screams a crusher for most of SNE but that convection over the Gulf Stream wants to screw us. 

Seems like this is just going to wind up being a weird evolution overall. 

Yeah this doesn't exactly scream "strung out low....lower impact storm for SNE"....it's literally how you would probably draw it up on an idealized setup

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ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

I’m deleting all that crap. Anyone make a political references in the wx thread again, I’ll just can them for 5 days. We are the most lenient subforum on here….but everyone should know better than to

bristolri_wx
bristolri_wx

My apologies if this is off topic… As we hit 380 pages on this thread, and we wait for the 18z Euro, I just want to express my gratitude to everyone who participates in these threads. The communi

George001
George001

Ok I’ve seen enough to make my preliminary forecast. Now that the Navy is on board, I am very confident that this low isn’t going to disappear. The question is not going to be out to sea or benchmark

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TauntonBlizzard2013

TauntonBlizzard2013

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, George001 said:

LETS ****ING GO!!!! NAVY ON BOARD!!!! No dual low on the navy and it deepens the low to 972 mb, this is a huge red flag and should not be ignored. The Navy gets a lot of shit, but it’s a useful model even if it’s verification scores aren’t the highest. The way I use the Navy is I don’t just look at it and assume it’s 100% right, because it usually isn’t (I have made this mistake before early on, but after a few horrible busts I learned my lesson). My rule of thumb with the Navy is that if it is farther west than other guidance, I throw all guidance east of the Navy out the window. I  first heard of this rule a couple years ago back when I was still an anonymous lurker, and it seems to work well for the most part. When incorporating the Navy into my  forecasts, I blend it with other guidance that is farther west, so for me I’m blending it with the 6z Euro (12z thrown out the window because it’s weaker and east of the Navy), 12z Nam, 12z Canadian, and a give a bit of weight to the short range RAP and SREFS. Since the Navy is so far west, I see that as a huge red flag and am giving more weight to the western guidance like the (high res) Nam, Srefs, and 6z Euro. Am I being a weenie? Maybe a little bit, but the Navy jumped west for the mid Jan inland runner like 3-4 days out, and once that happened I adjusted my forecast and gave up hope for anything more than a couple inches before a changeover to rain in my area. 

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Cmass495

Cmass495

Posted
Posted 
HIGHLIGHTS...

* WE NOW HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A HISTORIC MAJOR WINTER STORM FOR
 EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 FT SNOWFALL WITH LOCALIZED
 3 FT IS LIKELY FOR EASTERN MA AND RI ALONG WITH BLIZZARD
 CONDITIONS.
* SNOWFALL RATES COULD REACH 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES DURING
 THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSNOW ACROSS EASTERN
 MA AND RI.
* IN ADDITION TO POTENTIAL HISTORICAL SNOWFALL, STRONG WINDS UP TO
 HURRICANE FORCE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WILL LEAD TO BITTERLY
 COLD WIND CHILLS ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL
  FLOODING.   

DETAILS...

HEAVY SNOWFALL/EXTREME SNOWFALL RATES...

MODELS HAVE NOW COME INTO CONSENSUS FOR A HISTORICAL BLIZZARD TO
IMPACT EASTERN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS WILL
OCCUR OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT, WITH AN IMPRESSIVE 40 MB
PRESSURE DROP IN 24 HOURS AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM EAST OF THE
CAROLINAS TO THE 70W/40N BENCHMARK. FOR REFERENCE, A BOMB CYCLONE'S
CRITERIA IS A DROP OF 24 MB IN 24 HOURS. AT THIS POINT WITHIN 24
HOURS OF THE STORM, WE ARE NOW IN THE TIME FRAME WHERE THE NAM
GENERALLY PERFORMS WELL DURING AN EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS EVENT.

WE NOW HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN EXCEPTIONAL TO EXTREME SNOWFALL RATES   
WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSNOW ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RI.   
SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST   
BAND, HOWEVER. BOTH NAM AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW OVER 50 UNITS 

OF OMEGA COINCIDING WITH THE FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH REGION. GIVEN   
THAT A DOUBLE BARREL LOW COULD DEVELOP WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN EYE-
LIKE FEATURE AT SOME POINT, WHEREVER THE MESOSCALE SNOW BAND SETS UP
COULD SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES WITH AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE FOR 5 INCHES PER HOUR ESPECIALLY WHEN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE   
SYSTEM. IF A DEFORMATION BAND CAN PERSIST WHEN THE ARCTIC AIR
ARRIVES LATER IN THE DAY, SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS (SLRS) COULD BE AS   
HIGH AS 20-25 TO 1. THEREFORE, WE FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE TO INTRODUCE AN AREA OF 24 TO 30 INCHES STORM TOTAL
SNOWFALL. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS BAND COULD SET UP FURTHER WEST,
OR THERE MAY BE TWO BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN
BETWEEN. EITHER WAY, WE ARE CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH A BLIZZARD
WARNING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH NEAR
ZERO VISIBILITY AT TIMES ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN MA AND RI.

STRONG WINDS/BLOWING SNOW...  

WITH 925MB WINDS AT 65-70 KTS OR 4 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE   
NORMAL ACCORDING TO GEFS AND NAEFS SITUATIONAL AWARENESS TABLE AND
COMBINED WITH EXCELLENT MIXING, THERE WILL BE HURRICANE FORCE WIND   
GUSTS AT TIMES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND 50-60 MPH GUSTS FURTHER
INLAND. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO WIDESPREAD DRIFTING AND BLOWING OF
SNOW WITH LOCALIZED SNOW DRIFTS OF UP TO 4 FT OR HIGHER. WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S, WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
RATHER WIDESPREAD BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RI,
INCLUDING THE PROVIDENCE TO BOSTON CORRIDOR. BASED ON THE LATEST
GUIDANCE TRENDS, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE I-95 OR EVEN THE I-495 
CORRIDOR ENDS UP WITH A SECONDARY LOCAL SNOWFALL MAXIMA. THE SILVER
LINING IS THAT BECAUSE WE ARE DEALING WITH DRY POWDERY FLUFF, THERE
IS LESS OF A CONCERN FOR SNOW LOADING ISSUES EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF THE
OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET DUE TO THE COASTAL FRONT.

POWER OUTAGE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE HIGHEST ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS,
WHERE THE WARMER TEMPS WOULD LEAD TO HEAVIER AND WETTER SNOW AND
CONSEQUENTLY HIGHER SNOW LOADING. WITH 70 MPH WINDS, POWER OUTAGES
WILL BE LIKELY.

THERE IS SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE HOW FAR WEST THE HEAVY SNOW
OVERSPREADS AND THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WE CANNOT BE ENTIRELY SURE
UNTIL THE MESOSCALE BAND SETS UP AS THE STORM GETS GOING TOMORROW
MORNING. WHILE WE DO THINK THAT PLYMOUTH COUNTY IS STILL GOING TO
END UP WITH ONE OF THE HIGHEST TOTALS FOR THIS STORM, HOWEVER, THE 
SLRS MAY BE AFFECTED BY THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE'S LESS THAN IDEAL
COINCIDENCE WITH THE BEST OMEGA RESULTING IN RIMING AND THE FACT
THAT THE HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS COULD BREAK UP DENDRITES.
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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

That's Kevin's opinion because it doesn't have as much snow as he wants.

It is definitely a tool any office can use (we have QPF available to bring into the forecast). But every office does their own ratios and weather grids to create snowfall amounts, so no they didn't just pull in the HREF snow amounts. 

It’s got me 12-15.  I think that’s a bit low yes 

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