Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[OceanStWx]

7 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I saw they moved the needle north of there, They must feel good about my 8.5" now.........

Just speaking about the  EPS, the 10th percentile for you has moved to 0 over the last two days, but the 90th percentile has moved up to 14. Like Ryan has said, the spread has actually increased.

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Why are we that surprised some of the lower res ensembles are waffling around with respect to the time of closure and dual lows, when every other global has been? I just trust the OP EURO here....I mean, could it tic east some, sure...would not surprise me. We probably end up with a solution less impressive than that 12z EURO OP run, but I would be shocked if this threat evaporates in favor of a fish low at this juncture....but again, a Juno esc later capture would not shock me, so maybe its 1' instead of 2' here.

I don't know about the Euro/EPS specifics, but at least with the GFS/GEFS the ensembles on average typically provide a better forecast for day 2 even. 24 hours is pretty much op or bust time for the GFS. 

[TalcottWx]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Melting potential is now at 3 or so standard deviations from the norm for 42 -48 hours out . 

The vix is going up and I own many puts. I'm happy today either way. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Newburyport will probably be pretty good and I find it to be a more interesting area in general than the south shore.

I’m a sucker for violent flooding 

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, tunafish said:

Noob question:  What impact does confluence have on the storm?

Suppress the storm a bit east depending on strength and placement.

[moneypitmike]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Def more confluence up in Quebec on 18z NAM through 18h....

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, OceanStWx said:

Just speaking about the  EPS, the 10th percentile for you has moved to 0 over the last two days, but the 90th percentile has moved up to 14. Like Ryan has said, the spread has actually increased.

I don't know about the Euro/EPS specifics, but at least with the GFS/GEFS the ensembles on average typically provide a better forecast for day 2 even. 24 hours is pretty much op or bust time for the GFS. 

Yikes.

Okay....I didn't know that to be the case this close in.

[skierinvermont]

1 minute ago, Henry's Weather said:

riiiight, its an undesirable solution because it's a bad model

it's a terrible model. this is just entertainment. was hoping for a sub 960mb BM stall

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

Just speaking about the  EPS, the 10th percentile for you has moved to 0 over the last two days, but the 90th percentile has moved up to 14. Like Ryan has said, the spread has actually increased.

I don't know about the Euro/EPS specifics, but at least with the GFS/GEFS the ensembles on average typically provide a better forecast for day 2 even. 24 hours is pretty much op or bust time for the GFS. 

Saw that 0-15" so the expected is where it needs to be right now.

[codfishsnowman]

1 hour ago, JC-CT said:

 

God that's sexy!

[TalcottWx]

Let's remember the model currently running is a pile of garbage and went from 0" to 3 feet today. If it goes back to sucking it makes it even more of a joke. The GFS run is much more important at 18z.

[OceanStWx]

5 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

The weird thing is we have seen the spread increase in the EPS fairly dramatically from 00z to 6z to 12z. 

And it's no just the dual low thing... there are some real eastern outliers that are struggling to get precip even to Boston.

Doubt they're right but a few red flags to consider.

You can see it pretty well with the QPF density functions from the 00z EPS. 

At the lower end (yellow arrow) the values have actually gotten lower than previous runs. But at the higher end (red arrow) the values have gotten higher than the last run. 

So the bad members are getting worse, and the good members are getting better.

[FXWX]

41 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

No offense, but that's not really fair to dismiss concerns about being on the fringes just because it's a big dynamic storm. March 2014 was as dynamic an upper air setup as they come...just too far east. Not saying this is March 2014, it's not...but there's always a fringe.

No offence taken...  It was more about the inference that the ballgame is over for WOR... Hey in the end, it may prove to be correct, but this drumbeat to dismiss this event because the modeled snow gradient appears to remove shot at bigger totals for western areas, as currently stated by quite a few folks, is just not realistic given the nature this storm event.  I'm only referencing those that have appeared to have given up.  Certainly, concerns are warranted, but throwing the towel in is a bit much... No biggie...

[JC-CT]

I'm confluent in three languages

[skierinvermont]

by 30hr you can see some slight extra digging on the backside of the trough, but the extra confluence looks to dominate

[Baroclinic Zone]

Not seeing any wholesale changes in the 18z NAM.  Subtle confluence increase but sharper trough.  May offset each other.

[JC-CT]

Just now, FXWX said:

No offence taken...  It was more about the inference that the ballgame is over for WOR... Hey in the end, it may prove to be correct, but this drumbeat to dismiss this event because the modeled snow gradient appears to remove shot at bigger totals for western areas, as currently stated by quite a few folks, is just not realistic given the nature this storm event.  I'm only referencing those that have appeared to have given up.  Certainly, concerns are warranted, but throwing the towel in is a bit much... No biggie...

I total agree with you that it's weird to be writing it off when they are riding it so close, except that I'm pretty sure with runnaway it's reverse psychology and I totally support it lol.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

Let's remember the model currently running is a pile of garbage and went from 0" to 3 feet today. If it goes back to sucking it makes it even more of a joke. The GFS run is much more important at 18z.

The gfs sucks but at least it’s not Jumpy. It just Is consistent when it sucks that you never know ..I mean you kinda do but not .for certain  When others are jumpy 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, skierinvermont said:

by 30hr you can see some slight extra digging on the backside of the trough, but the extra confluence looks to dominate

 

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Not seeing any wholesale changes in the 18z NAM.  Subtle confluence increase but sharper trough.  May offset each other.

Jesus, at this point, I just want to slip into a coma and awaken Saturday AM to look out the window.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Not seeing any wholesale changes in the 18z NAM.  Subtle confluence increase but sharper trough.  May offset each other.

That's my thoughts, Offset, Same results possibly.

[CT Valley Dryslot]

NAM looks slightly slower than 12z at hour 30.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Seems we can’t buy two consecutive runs with positive moves 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, FXWX said:

No offence taken...  It was more about the inference that the ballgame is over for WOR... Hey in the end, it may prove to be correct, but this drumbeat to dismiss this event because the modeled snow gradient appears to remove shot at bigger totals for western areas, as currently stated by quite a few folks, is just not realistic given the nature this storm event.  I'm only referencing those that have appeared to have given up.  Certainly, concerns are warranted, but throwing the towel in is a bit much... No biggie...

There certainly was a lot of those yesterday . Probably will be some today even with things locking in 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Seems we can’t buy two consecutive runs with positive moves 

Well, there wasn't much room for upward mobility after last run lol

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Jesus, at this point, I just want to slip into a coma and awaken Saturday AM to look out the window.

Given how subtle the differences are of capture vs. late capture or no capture...we seriously may have too. I just don't think we're going to get any consistency or agreement on this until it either happens or doesn't

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Jesus, at this point, I just want to slip into a coma and awaken Saturday AM to look out the window.

If I was on air I would probably melt down about how every gawdamn forecast for New England has to be so damn hard / complicated . They would ship me off to S Florida where I could give a decent 30 day forecast almost every month 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Given how subtle the differences are of capture vs. late capture or no capture...we seriously may have too. I just don't think we're going to get any consistency or agreement on this until it either happens or doesn't

I hope I didn't overreact to the OP EURO...usually when there is any doubt about capture, I like to err less and late....I didn't realize that the EPS would be so split and the still had so much value at this range.

[Mr. Windcredible!]

1 hour ago, Rd9108 said:

Haha I'm only 30 so I didn't get to experience 1993 or 1994 or 1950 for that matter. 2010 was our last huge storm and it was awesome since it dropped 21 inches but we didn't have the wind. 2010 was the storm that got me interested in this bloody hobby.

I grew up in Pittsburgh. I was in 8th grade in March of 1993...and also on vacation in Florida for the Superstorm. As a huge snow weenie it was a crushing disappointment missing out on it. The squall line/winds in Florida with that one really did nothing for me, and having no internet access and limited channel selection in a cheap motel there was really no way to track it either. Thankfully, we got nailed with the 94 storm which helped make up for missing 93. And of course 94 was a January storm so the snow stuck around and kept us out of school for a week. Good memories of that one.

[TalcottWx]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Seems we can’t buy two consecutive runs with positive moves 

Oh my god

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Given how subtle the differences are of capture vs. late capture or no capture...we seriously may have too. I just don't think we're going to get any consistency or agreement on this until it either happens or doesn't

Where it does end up could be a big difference for some areas, That may not be until were inside 24hrs too.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

If I was on air I would probably melt down about how every gawdamn forecast for New England has to be so damn hard / complicated 

Except this one isn’t at all