Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[weatherwiz]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I know what you mean, but so many variables right now. But if you are just playing around like I was with BUFKIT, weenie away.

I am mostly playing around. I know it's early to really dig into these details but I love looking for the weenie aspect. 

I just looked at the PYM bufkit and yeah...that is absolutely wild  

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

He ninja'd me.

Yeah, I was looking down stream and that was the point i was trying to make, That slp on the euro would have either held serve of 12z or maybe even been a tic or two west, Where the GFS was well east of there at the surface.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, codfishsnowman said:

Nantucket has had some monster snows over the years, your so hot to trot on the south coast/Islands getting shut out as a phenomenon related to climate change. Never know, maybe this one winds up being ACKs next 2 footer

He probably doesn’t realize that ACK averages like 27” per year.

[CoastalWx]

I don't think ACK is far behind ern MA right now.    

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 

Where and when is that?   Yikes!

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I don't think ACK is far behind ern MA right now.    

Just cracked 10" today! 

[OceanStWx]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Ekster just pointed me to the Euro density functions and man there is a good wind signal showing up. The 10th percentile wind gust at PWM is like 17. 

17 m/s!

That's a helluva floor.

[dryslot]

The coastal damage potential with astronomical high tides are really troubling.

[Hoth]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Anyways GEFS are tossed. I feel like they’ve gone back to the jumpy guidance we’ve known and loved. 

I don't care if the GFS is new and improved, it still don't trust it for east coast cyclogenesis. It's struggled mightily with some of the biggies over the years.

[WeatherHappens]

Just now, dryslot said:

The coastal damage potential with astronomical high tides are really troubling.

i just moved a block from the ocean....i'm not sure if it's a flood prone area but think i'm going to find out

[HalloweenGale]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

He probably doesn’t realize that ACK averages like 27” per year.

I lived on the island from '88-'96. in those eight years, we had only a few foot plus events. I could probably count them on both hands.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

000
NOUS42 KNHC 251930
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0230 PM EST TUE 25 JANUARY 2022
SUBJECT: WINTER SEASON PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
         VALID 26/1100Z TO 27/1100Z JANUARY 2022
         WSPOD NUMBER.....21-056 AMENDMENT

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE MISSION ALONG
       TRACK 65 FOR 28/0000Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 49
       A. 27/0000Z
       B. NOAA9 01WSC IOP04
       C. 26/1900Z (CHANGED)
       D. 30 DROPS APPROXIMATELY 60 NM APART WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY 
          20.0N 180.0W, 20.0N 155.0W, 40.0N 155.0W, AND 40.0N 180.0W.
       E. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT/ 26/2030Z-27/0230Z
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A USAF RESERVE WC-130J AIRCRAFT
       AND THE NOAA G-IV AIRCRAFT MAY FLY TWO CONCURRENT
       ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS MISSIONS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
       PACIFIC FOR THE 28/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME.
    3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK:  A USAF RESERVE WC-130J AIRCRAFT
       MAY FLY ANOTHER ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS MISSION OVER THE EASTERN
       AND CENTRAL PACIFIC FOR THE 29/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME.

$$
WJM

NNNN

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, HalloweenGale said:

I lived on the island from '88-'96. in those eight years, we had only a few foot plus events. I could probably count them on both hands.

That’s a-lot of 12+ then. Much more than me during that period. 

[RI Rob]

3 minutes ago, WeatherHappens said:

i just moved a block from the ocean....i'm not sure if it's a flood prone area but think i'm going to find out

Me too. We'll see what happens in the Seaport.. 

[NeonPeon]

3 minutes ago, WeatherHappens said:

i just moved a block from the ocean....i'm not sure if it's a flood prone area but think i'm going to find out

You moved to a place and don't know whether it's flood prone? Perhaps  whateverhappenshappens would be more apposite. 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

27 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Load Blown Ray’s Face

I know, the acronyms are getting out of control. My apologies I added another one.

Is 'WOR' shorthand for ORH?

[Hoth]

28 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

That is an absolute crushing in SE MA. With a giant screw job in the CTRV

Sees that. Thinks of March '18.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Is 'WOR' shorthand for ORH?

West of River

[NeonPeon]

15 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Just cracked 10" today! 

That's twice my mighty haul so far.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Is 'WOR' shorthand for ORH?

West of the River. (CT River)

Referring to anybody in Western New England, constantly being screwed in big coastals, while most of the forum does naked high fives. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

18z EPS yet? 

[IowaStorm05]

23 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

Nantucket has had some monster snows over the years, your so hot to trot on the south coast/Islands getting shut out as a phenomenon related to climate change. Never know, maybe this one winds up being ACKs next 2 footer

I was being facetious but yes, massive snows can happen almost anywhere on the coast when you go well above the mason-dixon line

[CT Valley Dryslot]

FWIW, I was just doing some reading, and apparently the plan is for NCEP to retire the NAM in favor of an FV3-based meso model in the near future.

[PhineasC]

EPS?

[IowaStorm05]

14 minutes ago, WeatherHappens said:

i just moved a block from the ocean....i'm not sure if it's a flood prone area but think i'm going to find out

You would probably have known when you applied for homeowners insurance because you might have had trouble getting it. But I digress, the insurance company I represented was a low-risk only company and hated coastal properties. And Florida.

[EMontpelierWhiteout]

7 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

West of the River. (CT River)

Referring to anybody in Western New England, constantly being screwed in big coastals, while most of the forum does naked high fives. 

MLK storm treated us very nicely in N. Central VT.

[CT Valley Dryslot]

I would say that anyone S&E of DDH is likely to see at least a moderate event.

[OceanStWx]

Would seem the 18z EPS is a little farther SW compared to the 12z, but this is effectively just a 6 hour slowing of the system. Mean QPF is similar, unless you live on the Maine coast. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

2 minutes ago, CT Valley Dryslot said:

I would say that anyone S&E of DDH is likely to see at least a moderate event.

Double Dry Hopped?

[WeatherHappens]

15 minutes ago, RI Rob said:

Me too. We'll see what happens in the Seaport.. 

i moved to Winthrop