Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Everyone staring into the camera wearing MaineJayHawk’s tshirt of weenies firing out of cannons and nothing else?

Zoom squares suddenly going black and mics going mute as the GFS comes in 24 hours from onset and shifts everything to Newfoundland?

[Hoth]

8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Are we gonna get a Zoom chat going if we start locking in a monster?

Kiss of death, just like the old radio shows.

[weatherwiz]

Still seeing significant differences regarding the ridging in the West. Rather sizable differences too. Obviously it's the NAM towards the end of it's range but that too is vastly different with the ridge and the run-to-run differences between Euro/GFS yield the same scenario. 

[weathafella]

13 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Harvey Leonard was 1 year too late to WCVB for 1978.  He must be in his 70s now.

He was on WHDH in 78

[JC-CT]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Still seeing significant differences regarding the ridging in the West. Rather sizable differences too. Obviously it's the NAM towards the end of it's range but that too is vastly different with the ridge and the run-to-run differences between Euro/GFS yield the same scenario. 

It happens between hours 39 and 54

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

Yeah, I'm just not really laughing about it. Good god

I'll prolly stay up for tonight's 0z because I need to see what the trends are.   Sampling only gets better going forward...

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

4 minutes ago, PineHillsWx said:

He was all over 78, working in Providence, watched him from Dedham with the rabbit ear antennas.

I just remember when he arrived at WCVB.  Grandma lived in North Quincy.  I visited a lot.  WCVB had a very attractive weekend or morning anchor, last name McGrath.  I was 15...  Found a pic.  Remember, I was only 15

[powderfreak]

49 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The 12z Euro from a met standpoint is insane. Sustained 50-60kts just offshore. 925 winds near 80-90kts so you know at least that is mixing down. What an effing beast.

Storm/individual/ensemble progs in the 950s to 970s, with the cold pattern pressing down/south… there’s going to be a gradient flow with that.  It may not be a cold month in some parts of the northeast… but it’s been lurking nearby with solidly below normal in the means for parts of the North Country.  A bombing low mixing with that persistent cold is a solid winter storm for someone.  Wind and snow.

[DavisStraight]

9 minutes ago, PineHillsWx said:

He was all over 78, working in Providence, watched him from Dedham with the rabbit ear antennas.

Back then I got I think 7-8 channels, Boston, Springfield and Providence, I remember John Ghiorse and Art Bell.

[weatherwiz]

Just now, JC-CT said:

It happens between hours 39 and 54

It's insane...not just differences with the strength of the ridge but orientation too. The pattern over the Pacific is quite chaotic. Probably need to get that resolved before anything else

[wxsniss]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The 12z Euro from a met standpoint is insane. Sustained 50-60kts just offshore. 925 winds near 80-90kts so you know at least that is mixing down. What an effing beast.

Yeah that run is a keeper. Goes warm core by Saturday too. A HECS verbatim. I wonder when was the last time we had a warm core blizzard.

Question is what variation of that does reality take 4.5 days away.

[JC-CT]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

It's insane...not just differences with the strength of the ridge but orientation too. The pattern over the Pacific is quite chaotic. Probably need to get that resolved before anything else

Is it even inside the NAMs grid range right now

[CT Valley Dryslot]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

Is it even inside the NAMs grid range right now

I don't believe so. And it won't be for a few days.

[PineHillsWx]

5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

He was on WHDH in 78

My bad, I remember watching him on tv in Providence but had just move to 7, he did call the storm though….

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, wxsniss said:

Yeah that run is a keeper. Goes warm core by Saturday too. A HECS verbatim. I wonder when was the last time we had a warm core blizzard.

Question is what variation of that does reality take 4.5 days away.

This time tomorrow night is when we start to have a much better grip on if any rug pulls are in the making. 

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Is it even inside the NAMs grid range right now

 

Just now, CT Valley Dryslot said:

I don't believe so. And it won't be for a few days.

Not the storm but watching how the NAM starts to handle the evolution of the pattern across the eastern Pacific and western U.S. is certainly in range. 

When there is storm potential we spend so much time focusing on the U.S. domain when in reality the domain of focus should be shifted much farther west to incorporate the Pacific. For example, models have been really been building the ridging into the western U.S. moving into Wednesday...well the processes and evolution of that is really starting over the Pacific now so understanding how the models are handling what's occurring over the Pacific may yield big clues.

[cut]

It’s snowing heavily here in Trumbull!?!? Had no idea this was a possibility 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, cut said:

It’s snowing heavily here in Trumbull!?!? Had no idea this was a possibility 

It was pretty well forecast.

[DavisStraight]

2 minutes ago, cut said:

It’s snowing heavily here in Trumbull!?!? Had no idea this was a possibility 

Really light here now but darker echos look to come through

[weathafella]

I looked at eps and I can’t see much difference 12 vs 18.  Maybe 5-10 miles but I don’t see how it would be other than noise.  And it’s a beautiful look!

[cut]

2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

It was pretty well forecast.

Working on NFL playoffs and Olympics- haven’t had the time to really follow.

[JC-CT]

6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

 

Not the storm but watching how the NAM starts to handle the evolution of the pattern across the eastern Pacific and western U.S. is certainly in range. 

When there is storm potential we spend so much time focusing on the U.S. domain when in reality the domain of focus should be shifted much farther west to incorporate the Pacific. For example, models have been really been building the ridging into the western U.S. moving into Wednesday...well the processes and evolution of that is really starting over the Pacific now so understanding how the models are handling what's occurring over the Pacific may yield big clues.

I was asking about the domain, not forecast time.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

For a storm of this potential impact, flying a G-IV or even a mid altitude WC-130J mission to gather data over the East Pac might be a good thing.

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

I was asking about the domain, not forecast time.

both the shortwaves of interest are within the domain 

[JC-CT]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

both the shortwaves of interest are within the domain 

Thx

[CT Valley Dryslot]

7 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

For a storm of this potential impact, flying a G-IV or even a mid altitude WC-130J mission to gather data over the East Pac might be a good thing.

No RECON tomorrow. Already checked.

[weathafella]

What are we doing recon for now?  The storm is day away from forming.

[Go Kart Mozart]

15 minutes ago, cut said:

It’s snowing heavily here in Trumbull!?!? Had no idea this was a possibility 

Thanks....I wouldn't have known if I didn't see your post, and I live 150 yards from you.  Enjoy it, it might be the best we have until February.

[JC-CT]

What storm

[subdude]

Suppose to drive to Westfield on Saturday to visit grandson. Stopping at Tree House in Deerfield on the way. My Bday to boot. Might be riding this one out at home.