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Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

I’m deleting all that crap. Anyone make a political references in the wx thread again, I’ll just can them for 5 days. We are the most lenient subforum on here….but everyone should know better than to

bristolri_wx
bristolri_wx

My apologies if this is off topic… As we hit 380 pages on this thread, and we wait for the 18z Euro, I just want to express my gratitude to everyone who participates in these threads. The communi

George001
George001

Ok I’ve seen enough to make my preliminary forecast. Now that the Navy is on board, I am very confident that this low isn’t going to disappear. The question is not going to be out to sea or benchmark

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Not a bad spot 6 days out 

Yes, thank you Will. 
 

Everybody wants to see it in a perfect spot 6-7 days out. WTF?  It’s fine where it is at the moment.  
 

the modeling doesn’t have every major player modeled perfectly at a week out. Not even remotely close. You change one lil thing and it’s east or west etc etc of where it is today.  The signal is there still. Let’s keep it like that for a bit longer. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Then how comes the models can't amplify anything?

Because perhaps the ridg/trough placement isn’t ideal for a specific location. But progressive patterns are ones that offer weak or no cyclogenesis. This one is going to have a strong system offshore. 

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

My area sucks for snow but your area shouldn't really be struggling in this pattern.

Just because it’s not putting the system right where you think it should be at a week out, doesn’t mean it’s a progressive pattern at all. There’s a big ridge out west, and a deep trough along the east coast…all you need to see a week out imo. 

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yup…and many never learn. 

Some are acting like this is east of bermuda heading to England, Its clipping the eastern areas and i would say that's a good place right now for it, Still 6+ days out and we only need a 75-100 mi shift over that period.

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Maybe seeing it be 970mb over SYR would be better at this time frame?  

Right!   I mean everybody all upset cuz it’s a bit east at a week out. Holy jeez.  Every single big boy we’ve ever gotten in the last 20 yrs has gone through this same cycle.  
 

If it were right on us at 6-7 days out, would that make people feel better?  I mean, if it were right where we wanted it today, it’s gonna stay right there for us for another week right?  Lmao….    This thing has some major evolving yet to come..Buckle up. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m not sure what you guys expect 6+ days out.  I want nothing to do with a jackpot 6 days out. Kiss of death. 

Yeah this season has thrown so many people on tilt. Literally throwing tantrums about sub-970 scrapers at D6. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It is HE who said big boys don’t happen in nina’s, they never do, which we proceeded to prove him wrong. So now he spins it. Ya can’t trust him.

Well he did sleep through most of the KUs in 2011 so you can’t totally blame him. Maybe when he woke up he thought he was shoveling several 3-6” events?

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Some are acting like this is east of bermuda heading to England, Its clipping the eastern areas and i would say that's a good place right now for it, Still 6+ days out and we only need a 75-100 mi shift over that period.

Weenies get scared. They need to see all models crushing their area on every run for a week straight. T minus 12 hours from go-time and we start getting the “all models suck” posts when the storm evolution looks nothing like it did at d7. 

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Posted in wrong thread but 850 actually doesn't look bad

eps_u850_anom_eastcoastus_144.png

eps_mslp_lows_conus_144.png

Everything looks about where it should for almost a week out in time. We track and monitor. That’s all we can ask for at this juncture. It’s gonna ebb and flow over the next few days…more revelations coming with this. 

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