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Jan 15-16 Winter Storm


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3 minutes ago, JoshM said:

6z gfs is an I-85 ice storm . Over 3/4 inch for KCLT, MBY (Gaston/Cleveland county line) gets close to 1 inch 

Looks to me like along I-85 probably from Spartenburg to Gastonia  would be a raging sleet storm. That's maybe a bit of a saving grace. 

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1 minute ago, burgertime said:

Looks to me like along I-85 probably from Spartenburg to Gastonia  would be a raging sleet storm. That's maybe a bit of a saving grace. 

I sure hope so, 2002 flashbacks are coming to mind.

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9z RAP is super bullish on the Northeast Georgia snow. It takes a southern track with the 5h low similar to the ukmet and hrrr.

So for those counting in NE Georgia/Upstate SC we have:

RAP,Hrrr(extrapolating), Ukmet, RGEM,CMC, Euro all showing solid front end thumps.

GFS is too warm and the NAM/3kNAM are decent but less acumulations than the first group of models. ICON is also borderline.

Screen Shot 2022-01-14 at 6.13.39 AM.png

Screen Shot 2022-01-14 at 6.13.59 AM.png

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Looks about the same as last night

1642140000-n5vVw282oyQ.png

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One of the best storms I had was back in '14 and while Aiken towards the coast ended up with a horrible ice storm, mby had a mix of everything that gave me about 4" that stayed around for a while. Hands down the best sledding ever. I taught all the kids on my small dead end street how to sled with various items laying around the yard :lol: Was it safe? No. Was it hours of awesome fun? Yes :wub: 

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Don’t really see it other than the French broad river valley per usual.  

 
With the exception of the eastern escarpment the gfs has really backed off totals for western Piedmont and foothills. Hoping the icon can score a coup. Places like hickory are being modeled as 3-6” on most models now except the icon which is showing 12+. Pretty major difference. A storm of this size and track and western half of the state can only eek out 1” of qpf on this run??
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8 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

Nothing has changed at 51

1642323600-eLVSnBxst5Q.png

2 days ago we would have been celebrating the placement of the ULL on that map. What went wrong? Just look at the decrease in heights. Not too shocked to see blocking fail to materialize in a La Nina year

gfs_z500trend_us_6.png

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2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

2 days ago we would have been celebrating the placement of the low ULL on that map. What went wrong? Just look at the decrease in heights. Not too shocked to see blocking fail to materialize in a La Nina year

 

I'm still celebrating :(  It's gone from a record hot December, to a dusting to 2" for a limited area from a clipper, to a miller a/b hybrid putting a lot more people in the game. Whatever falls, I don't really care because I haven't had any type of winter weather since '18 and have tracked for everyone else that has had frozen fun since then. 

Clowns

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1642446000-ouXMcI5ydVM.png

1642460400-5t0Y6Le270Y.png

 

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1 minute ago, buckeyefan1 said:

I'm still celebrating :(  It's gone from a record hot December, to a dusting to 2" for a limited area from a clipper, to a miller a/b hybrid putting a lot more people in the game. Whatever falls, I don't really care because I haven't had any type of winter weather since '18 and have tracked for everyone else that has had frozen fun since then. 

Clowns

1642442400-pQvbeazVbXY.png

1642446000-ouXMcI5ydVM.png

1642460400-5t0Y6Le270Y.png

 

Dang that freezing rain looks nasty . Shows .98 in my area. Even if you cut in half that’s lights out 

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NWS RAH seems to feel it will effectively be a non event for Raleigh itself. Around 0.1 inches and a inch or so of snow then rain. That seems the most reasonable as model output on ZR is almost always overdone. Enjoy the storm for those out west. Imma head out for now.

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