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January 3, 2022 CAPE Storm Obs/Nowcast


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5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

lol I just looked at the 6z 3k NAM. Pretty crazy amounts that drop off to almost nothing over a relatively short distance. Insanely sharp cutoff.

You're not kidding with the 06Z NAM. We're gonna be right on the edge of that jackpot here in the Crofton-Bowie area. 

Screenshot_20220103-063107_Chrome.jpg

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Sorry if this is a dumb question, but is the snow depth portion of the 3k NAM any good?  I'm looking at 18" kuchera and 4" snow depth, which I guess could make some sense if we never go below freezing but damn that's a big difference (not that I believe 18" of snow is gonna fall).

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12 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Man I'm going to be literally on the line of decent accumulations vs very little. For reference I'm actually in Ashburn near Broadlands while I wait for my house to be finished.  The two letter fellow he's in a rough spot I think

I’m right by you so I feel that.
 

At least it’s snowing for the first time this winter so can’t complain all that much haha 

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Just now, B-Paq said:

Sorry if this is a dumb question, but is the snow depth portion of the 3k NAM any good?  I'm looking at 18" kuchera and 4" snow depth, which I guess could make some sense if we never go below freezing but damn that's a big difference (not that I believe 18" of snow is gonna fall).

I'm by no means an expert, but my understanding is that snow depth is generally  too low except in highly marginal events. 

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10 minutes ago, CAPE said:

lol I just looked at the 6z 3k NAM. Pretty crazy amounts that drop off to almost nothing over a relatively short distance. Insanely sharp cutoff.

FWIW, I've got snow on the ground (not much), but the 3k NAM doesn't show it snowing at my location until later this morning. That said, just looking at radar, unless that stuff near DC can really push up here in the next hour or two, I'd lean toward the 3k and my area not getting very much over the HRRR and RAP showing close to 8 inches. It's crazy the differences in models and where the cutoff line is. 

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Just now, osfan24 said:

FWIW, I've got snow on the ground (not much), but the 3k NAM doesn't show it snowing at my location until later this morning. That said, just looking at radar, unless that stuff near DC can really push up here in the next hour or two, I'd lean toward the 3k and my area not getting very much over the HRRR and RAP showing close to 8 inches. It's crazy the differences in models and where the cutoff line is. 

It comes down to mere miles for your area. I’m also in EC for this one. Near OEC. 

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25 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:


Nice, how’s the total looking?

Approaching an inch, although I missed the first 1/4" so we're probably there. Didn't get my snowboard and camera out until 5:30. I'm doing a time-lapse of the storm I'll post here later

20220103_063804.thumb.jpg.1b31ce55c2623dcf1a3b3bd03a9b4897.jpg

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