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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2022


buckeyefan1
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2 hours ago, Brick Tamland said:

Well, if we aren't going to get anymore snow, bring on Spring and give Winter here a D once again. 

Yeah the triangle did get shafted compared to what could have been with 3 chances  I have it at a C- right now.

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Everyone.
I would ask that The Sanitarium be used for those posts that don’t belong here.
Those who are trying to learn / less experienced do not benefit from the drivel.
Those with the knowledge ignore it.
Please… no, I am not a Mod, so all I can do is ask.


. Pro

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It’s probably the influence of that weak GL low but man if only there was SOME cold air Monday/Tuesday bc that system looks better and better. Gonna be tough seeing rain and 36 degrees with a coastal taking an ideal track in early February 
If we had cold air in place that would be a glory run for the whole board

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Anyone know any way for the Monday/Tuesday system to trend colder? Would it require a stronger LP? It’s so close but temps up to 850 are isothermal so it’s not like there’s cold air just off the ground. The track the EURO shows is honestly ideal for snowfall in our area just can’t catch a break this year. Too far west, plenty of cold air but too Far East, now perfect track and no cold air. Such is life in the South

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2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

That’s crazy. The clouds broke and we topped out near 71 here yesterday and places in the NW triad were sitting around 40 at the same time

Yea, I used to live about 10 miles West of Trashbury (trust me it’s a smallish city but the crime is that of Detroit) CAD always stopped in Downtown/Down to Landis/Rockwell areas but Mt Ulla/Cleveland always do pretty well even that close. I seem to be about Equal to China Grove in Latitude just Further West, but in Iredell it’s always wild the difference in just South Iredell and like Mooresville Proper (hwy 150) and North 

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On 2/2/2022 at 5:49 PM, burrel2 said:

you know it's a good sign for the long range when wncsnow hasn't had anything to post about in here.

 

You know its a bad sign for the long range when burrel has nothing to post about in here 

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1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

You know its a bad sign for the long range when burrel has nothing to post about in here 

Pattern looks ok long range to me with persistent ridging out west… the lack of threats on the models/ensembles in the long range is a little concerning though. Would like to see some storms materialize here soon in the day 8-12 timeframe before the pattern breaks. 

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1 hour ago, Sandstorm94 said:

In case anyone is wondering....2027a9f663a439129f2dd577349e6f57.jpg

Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk
 

 

21 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Must not count sleet. GSO is reporting 8.2” for the season 

That map is off for sure. For some reason the season to date totals are higher when you use February 2nd as the end date. 

1023354376_snowfalljan.jpg.a85f534c760a3a86b841e9e910266765.jpg

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 The last few weeks have overall been one of the most exciting periods to be a winter wx lover in a very long time in the SE US as far as having so many things to discuss forecastingwise/a good number of opportunities, and getting some good hits, especially in the Carolinas! Among other places, Columbia finally got a good snow and Charlotte got 3 measurable snows within just 2 weeks, a very rare occurrence as it has been since 2000! The results weren’t always satisfying but the point is that it has not been the least bit boring. Most of the time it isn’t nearly that interesting for such a long period of time. In saying this, keep in mind that I got no wintry precip. though light ZR got very close when I got down to 32.7 with rain, a relative rarity down here in the Sav., GA,  area.
 
 
 
 
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And further to the above, we still have not even reached the peak times for major SE snow/sleet storms:

Per history, the frequency of big snow/sleetstorms for the SE as a whole including deep SE peaks around mid Feb after a quieter early Feb:

 

1. Dates of ATL 3.5"+/1.5"+ individual SN/IP storms:

 

DEC:  4 TOTAL  2, 3-6, 11-13, 29

 

JAN:  15 TOTAL 1, 2-3, 7, 7-8, 9, 9-10, 12, 18, 18-19, 22, 23, 23, 26, 28, 29-30

 

FEB:   14 TOTAL  10, 11-12, 11-12, 12, 12-13, 14-15, 15, 15, 15-16, 17-18, 21, 23, 24-25, 26

 

MAR: 6 TOTAL1, 2, 11, 13, 14, 24

 

 So, ATL peak 7 day period looks like Feb 10-16 with 9 major snow/sleetstorms. Interestingly, they've had NONE 1/31-2/9 though they've had some major icestorms then.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 2. Dates of RDU 6"+ individual SN/IP storms:

 

DEC: 8 TOTAL  2-3, 9-10, 11, 12-13, 17, 25-26, 27-28, 29

 

JAN: 13.5 TOTAL  2-3, 7-8, 7-8, 9-11, 13, 17-18, 18-19, 19, 24-25, 25-27, 26-27, 26-28, 28, 31 (this one continued til Feb 1)

 

FEB: 16.5 TOTAL  1 (this one continued from Jan 31), 6, 6-7, 9, 9-10, 10-11, 11-13, 14, 15-17, 17-18, 17-18, 18-19, 21-22, 26, 26, 26-27, 28

 

MAR: 8 TOTAL  1, 1-2, 2, 2-3, 9, 10, 24, 24

 

APR: 1 TOTAL 3

 

So, interestingly enough, RDU 6 day peak period for big storms is later, Feb 26-Mar 3, when they had 8.

 

 In other words, even after all of the interesting wx to follow, we potentially still have a long way to go. And these stats don't even include icestorms, which have occurred into the first few days of March on a not so rare basis.

 

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At GSP, the average high is 52 in mid January.  By February 1st, it's 54.  By March 1st it's 60.  A six degree change over February is a strong signal that our time for snow is running out, especially during the daytime.  Obviously we can all recount exceptions to this rule, but the further we go, the more perfect you need the setup to cash in.  I know this is a Debbie Downer post, but given that the pattern in the East starting in mid February is not ideal, I just don't see any meaningful snows (>1"), especially in Upstate SC along I-85 where I am located.  I have seen many winters and at some point the cold exhausts itself and you're left with "manufacturing" the cold to get snow.  It does happen, but rarely.  This post does not apply to CNC, WNC, and VA where they are closer to the cold source.

 

Climatology is a b!tch.

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