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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2022


buckeyefan1
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1 hour ago, snowmaker13 said:

The 12z is completely different from the 0z run. The GFS has been consistent for several runs showing the threat. 

Problem is GFS is also showing some major arctic air. If that's the case then it's gonna be awhile. I mean first step is always cold air but if it's that cold id be a bit skeptical of getting a huge storm right after it passes. Like @burrel2 said you need a stalled boundary and a storm to ride along it. 

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6 minutes ago, burgertime said:

Problem is GFS is also showing some major arctic air. If that's the case then it's gonna be awhile. I mean first step is always cold air but if it's that cold id be a bit skeptical of getting a huge storm right after it passes. Like @burrel2 said you need a stalled boundary and a storm to ride along it. 

If you look at H500 there is divergence aloft which would induce pressure falls at the surface. This isn't a overrunning event or a zipper low. 

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1 minute ago, snowmaker13 said:

If you look at H500 there is divergence aloft which would induce pressure falls at the surface. This isn't a overrunning event or a zipper low. 

Time will tell just seen more often than not cold air masses like that give us the big squash. Had euro been folding more to the GFS? Euro is way better here in Europe vs GFS with overall climo. 

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Just now, burgertime said:

Time will tell just seen more often than not cold air masses like that give us the big squash. Had euro been folding more to the GFS? Euro is way better here in Europe vs GFS with overall climo. 

I agree time will tell. Of course the europeans would tailor their models to their own climate better :) I hope the SE can score this system, would help the snow drought here. 

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24 minutes ago, burgertime said:

Problem is GFS is also showing some major arctic air. If that's the case then it's gonna be awhile. I mean first step is always cold air but if it's that cold id be a bit skeptical of getting a huge storm right after it passes. Like @burrel2 said you need a stalled boundary and a storm to ride along it. 

Trying to remember a time in my 46 years of SE winter watching that true arctic air was in place before we had a winter storm.  The only 1 event I recall where arctic air arrived 48 hours before the event (single digit lows and highs in 20's) was 1/13/82 storm.  Two other events I recall where arctic air arrived 24 before the storm was the great President's Day storm of 79 and the big overrunning storm of 1/7/1988.  Point well taken that with true arctic outbreaks in the SE, we generally need the cold air arrival to coincide with the low pressure development.  I might add that I have seen arctic air arrive at the same time as a storm such Jan 87 and March 80 where temps fell into the middle teens during the storm.   

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2 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

Trying to remember a time in my 46 years of SE winter watching that true arctic air was in place before we had a winter storm.  The only 1 event I recall where arctic air arrived 48 hours before the event (single digit lows and highs in 20's) was 1/13/82 storm.  Two other events I recall where arctic air arrived 24 before the storm was the great President's Day storm of 79 and the big overrunning storm of 1/7/1988.  Point well taken that with true arctic outbreaks in the SE, we generally need the cold air arrival to coincide with the low pressure development.  I might add that I have seen arctic air arrive at the same time as a storm such Jan 87 and March 80 where temps fell into the middle teens during the storm.   

I believe we had an event either 2011 or 2014. We had cold air in place and an overrunning event. Flakes were tiny and it was a super dry powder. Ended up with around 3 inches and a high of like 22 IRRC. By the way for everyone reading, by all means get excited. Just temper it with the fact that IF it's that cold of an artic air mass you just gotta get lucky on the front end or wait for it to start to break down. 

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Burger & Upstate T

Ur both right with the storms u mentioned.

2014 was the year u were thinking of Burger.

There is plenty of instances in my 51 years where their is arctic air in place.

The storms tend to be 4 inches or less.

Big dogs with arctic air in place tends to be once every 10 to 20 years.

Last one I remember was Jan/88

So u could say we are past due.

Ty all for the things u do.

 

 

 

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