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December 2021


MJO812
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8 hours ago, Tatamy said:

If you want to dig around in the models the 06z Ensemble run has 3 members that dig the short wave that is progged to pass across northern NE this weekend to a much greater degree than the mean.

 image.png.6f06b26f3bf29b831f40e4fc1a8f9d5a.png

 

Not sure if anyone has looked at the 12z UKmet or the 12z Euro but both OP runs have bought into the system for Saturday hinted at by the ensembles earlier.  Three members had it at 06z and 5 had it at 12z.  The Euro has the event for next week for eastern NE as well.

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6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It may be related to the MJO 7 that the EPS  and GEFS are showing long range.

3BD32387-F738-4D29-B863-4E38FC6E9D8A.gif.e3eb5e8d37373f7c2162be90d93ee6ec.gif

 

 

 

 

 

Yeah, I can see us getting into 7 but will have a hard time getting into p8. We need that pac to reshuffle because all we are getting now is a nw flow with cool air because of the lower hgts in ak 

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10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the MJO has been stalling out in phases 4-7 during recent years . The end of the GEFS run looks almost exactly like the December MJO phase 7 composite. But I and not certain how long we can hold a more -EPO with how ridiculously positive it has been since the summer. It’s also a very +AO phase.

9BE0E5D1-4AAC-4D69-9CC2-A49249E49D97.thumb.png.5e864eaef26fa71b161be6e43fa68455.png

463AB43F-2E69-4235-AF93-87C581EFD888.png.5db781ed8aa33eb59756f6dd7b1d8852.png

 

Yeah this would be p7 December in Niña 

07F71F9F-5B15-4DD6-A779-4391DBEAF0FB.png

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AND AS THEY COME AROUND THE FAR TURN......ITS 'EURO' IN THE LEAD WITH 'GFS' WIPING UP THE REAR:

C O M E     O N       "70*F"      Y O U     C A N     D O    I T    B O Y !!!!

Dec. 01-15 is 39/53 = 46, or +7 by Old Style Almanac, maybe just +4 by today's standards.      Lol

1638187200-cpsDUlM6mJY.png

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No changes in my thinking. Still on track. Looking for pattern improvement post mid month. That MJO wave is losing coherence while traversing the la Niña. As it reaches SA it's amplifying. That's what the ensembles have been doing and continue to via chi 200 charts. There are some warm waters in the Atlantic which could aid this? This should hopefully set in motion a series of favorable wave breaks. That's the idea. But it doesn't happen immediately either. So target is 2nd half of December to potentially benefit. 

I can see a couple of curve balls which would need monitoring. 

The stratosphere. As extremely unlikely as it is this time of year, any ssw reshuffles the deck totally. Would need reevaluating. 

Tropical cyclones are another. They have enough energy to disrupt everything.

There are definitely much worse ways to be heading into this month in my view. Some interesting possibilities at the very least. 

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2 hours ago, CIK62 said:

AND AS THEY COME AROUND THE FAR TURN......ITS 'EURO' IN THE LEAD WITH 'GFS' WIPING UP THE REAR:

C O M E     O N       "70*F"      Y O U     C A N     D O    I T    B O Y !!!!

Dec. 01-15 is 39/53 = 46, or +7 by Old Style Almanac, maybe just +4 by today's standards.      Lol

1638187200-cpsDUlM6mJY.png

I like 70 mid month

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We have seen high temperatures reach 55+ every year since 2011 between the 18th and 25th. This warm up approaching the holidays has happened in every ENSO state  from La Niña to El Niño. 

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Ending Date
Highest Max Temperature Dec 18 to Dec 25
Missing Count
2020-12-25 62 0
2019-12-25 57 0
2018-12-25 61 0
2017-12-25 57 0
2016-12-25 59 0
2015-12-25 71 0
2014-12-25 64 0
2013-12-25 71 0
2012-12-25 57 0
2011-12-25 62 0
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3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Pattern looks to continue boring for the next few weeks.   

For now but these clippers coming down from Canada can surprise people.  We said the same thing last year until the snowstorm around the 20th.

December was forecasted to be the coldest and snowiest month by many forecasters . It would be nice to see a white Christmas. 

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2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

For now but these clippers coming down from Canada can surprise people.  We said the same thing last year until the snowstorm around the 20th.

December was forecasted to be the coldest and snowiest month by many forecasters . It would be nice to see a white Christmas. 

with a fast flow and MJO stuck in 6/7 that's what we have to hope for.   

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You can see why all the long range models eventually flatten the MJO 6 ridge out West. It’s another case of the MJO weakening around phase 6 like recent years. So the mid portion of a December will probably see warmer departures than the early part of the month. 

Bias corrected GEFS and ECMWF

27347FB4-A61C-4838-8EF9-EF2562D4A7A4.gif.a7d504cf529110e780af6aa389c2f069.gif
3795C1FC-8DD1-4A1C-8985-37EE35B533F7.gif.c08d4a5065e9a068b65ff4c8f7d1127a.gif

 

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1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

If December sucks in a Niña, it’s usually a very, very bad sign for the rest of winter

There's a stat out there too-if we get no snow or minimal snow in December, the winter will generally suck.  Last year we had the foot in the middle of the month which led to a well above normal snowfall for the season....

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