EasternLI Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 18 minutes ago, bluewave said: 18-19 was more Niña-like with the strong -PNA trough over the Western US since the El Niño never coupled. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/csi-enso-case-missing-central-pacific-rainfall Also WQBO that year. Another strike against mjo modulation of the pattern. Propagation too, for that matter. In light of recent research, enso along with QBO are very important factors to consider. I've taken up the hobby of reading research papers over the summer the last few years. I've been able to gain some good insight into certain areas from this exercise. The QBO has been a focal point recently. Apparently, it's quite important as a modulator. 2018 -1.39 -1.50 -1.59 -1.75 -1.84 -1.95 -1.82 -1.12 -0.36 0.15 0.59 0.90 2019 0.89 0.84 0.98 1.09 1.32 1.54 1.44 1.36 1.12 0.97 0.73 0.38 2020 -0.05 -0.18 -0.33 -0.41 -0.27 0.14 0.58 0.94 1.10 1.26 1.22 1.09 2021 0.99 0.81 0.82 0.43 0.16 -0.20 -0.52 -0.58 -0.90 -1.18 -1.30- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 21 minutes ago, bluewave said: You know the WAA is impressive in December when Newark is only 2° under the record high so far with overcast conditions. 11 Dec 12:51 pm 63 just got a wind shift here to the SW and temps jumped about 10 degrees up to 56 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 54 in Chester, NJ dense fog. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 17 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Also WQBO that year. Another strike against mjo modulation of the pattern. Propagation too, for that matter. In light of recent research, enso along with QBO are very important factors to consider. I've taken up the hobby of reading research papers over the summer the last few years. I've been able to gain some good insight into certain areas from this exercise. The QBO has been a focal point recently. Apparently, it's quite important as a modulator. 2018 -1.39 -1.50 -1.59 -1.75 -1.84 -1.95 -1.82 -1.12 -0.36 0.15 0.59 0.90 2019 0.89 0.84 0.98 1.09 1.32 1.54 1.44 1.36 1.12 0.97 0.73 0.38 2020 -0.05 -0.18 -0.33 -0.41 -0.27 0.14 0.58 0.94 1.10 1.26 1.22 1.09 2021 0.99 0.81 0.82 0.43 0.16 -0.20 -0.52 -0.58 -0.90 -1.18 -1.30- No doubt. Experts that study the MJO interactions for their whole careers acknowledge all the various moving parts involved. Sometimes we get great results and other times we don’t. I certainly hope we can get a MJO 8 to shift our pattern to something better. But at the same time, I realize that there are other factors which have been driving the record Pacific Jet pattern. So I will keep expectations low and hope we can see something better by the end of December and start of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 60S for 6 hours today and probably on Thursday Plus 5 or so for the rest of the week I think people are gonna fail on calling for a record warm December. Edit: Plus probably very little sunshine during this warm up. What a way to run a torch pattern 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 5 minutes ago, binbisso said: 60S for 6 hours today and probably on Thursday Plus 5 or so for the rest of the week I think people are gonna fail on calling for a record warm December. Edit: Plus probably very little sunshine during this warm up. What a way to run a torch pattern This December has already experienced record warmth across a wide expanse of the US and it’s only the 11th. So I am not sure what you are talking about. Your 60s argument for a few hours makes as much sense saying that last December wasn’t snowy since it only really snowed hard for a day or two.The record warmth this month is a big part of why the tornado devastation occurred. We had a wintertime Jet stream clashing with out of season warmth. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: This December has already experienced record warmth across a wide expanse of the US and it’s only the 11th. So I am not sure what you are talking about. Your 60s argument for a few hours makes as much sense saying that last December wasn’t snowy since it only really snowed hard for a day or two.The record warmth this month is a big part of why the tornado devastation occurred. We had a wintertime Jet stream clashing with out of season warmth. I was specifically talking about our area I could care less what happens in Chicago or Omaha +1.4 in the park through the 1st 10 days of December is not impressive even in the new 30 year Cycle. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, binbisso said: I was specifically talking about our area I could care less what happens in Chicago or Omaha +1.4 in the park through the 1st 10 days of December is not impressive even in the new 30 year Cycle. The first 10 days were never supposed to be the warmest period. That begins today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: The first 10 days were never supposed to be the warmest period. That begins today True. However this warm up looks muted may be lasting 5 or 6 days. Probably not wearing shorts and a T-shirt any time this week although from the post you read on here you would think that was gonna happen. the poster from Coney island is saying plus 14 for the next 8 days let's see if that verifies 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 13 minutes ago, binbisso said: I was specifically talking about our area I could care less what happens in Chicago or Omaha +1.4 in the park through the 1st 10 days of December is not impressive even in the new 30 year Cycle. That's what makes it more impressive imo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 34 minutes ago, bluewave said: No doubt. Experts that study the MJO interactions for their whole careers acknowledge all the various moving parts involved. Sometimes we get great results and other times we don’t. I certainly hope we can get a MJO 8 to shift our pattern to something better. But at the same time, I realize that there are other factors which have been driving the record Pacific Jet pattern. So I will keep expectations low and hope we can see something better by the end of December and start of January. Totally fair thoughts. I'm just posting my own thoughts based on the reading that I've done. I'm more curious about how these thoughts work out more than anything else. It's just a fascinating case this year, and I'm already enjoying watching the progress. Always more to learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 As we head towards peak climo end of the month through January we don't need super cold temperatures to snow and we probably would want a hint of a Southeast ridge. We don't want the Front blowing through Jacksonville we want the baroclinic zone to be near us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 1 hour ago, bluewave said: You know the WAA is impressive in December when Newark is only 2° under the record high so far with overcast conditions. 11 Dec 12:51 pm 63 BLM is in the 60s now as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 3 minutes ago, Rjay said: That's what makes it more impressive imo Agree to disagree. went through this this yesterday what would make you think that we are going to stop this raging warming climate. I'd be more impressed with A day in the teens than a record breaking 70゚ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 Here are the High Temps for NYC from this week in 2015 61 66 66 66 68 52 59 Lets cut the sensationalist garbage already. It’s warm enough without the exaggerations needed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 64 degrees here right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 3 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: Here are the High Temps for NYC from this week in 2015 61 66 66 66 68 52 59 Lets cut the sensationalist garbage already. It’s warm enough without the exaggerations needed. Yes I agree we know it's warm and it's only gonna be getting warmer why is everyone so impressed with this is beyond me. what makes anyone think we are going to revert back to any kind of normal or cooler than normal temperature regime going forward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 7 minutes ago, binbisso said: As we head towards peak climo end of the month through January we don't need super cold temperatures to snow and we probably would want a hint of a Southeast ridge. We don't want the Front blowing through Jacksonville we want the baroclinic zone to be near us that is very true-too much cold usually leads to high and dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 3 minutes ago, binbisso said: Agree to disagree. went through this this yesterday what would make you think that we are going to stop this raging warming climate. I'd be more impressed with A day in the teens than a record breaking 70゚ On 12/10/2021 at 10:32 AM, forkyfork said: it hasn't been that warm because of climate change. The baseline is already high. Once we get into positive territory we usually hit a top 10 warmest month. It's gotten ridiculous. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, binbisso said: Yes I agree we know it's warm and it's only gonna be getting warmer why is everyone so impressed with this is beyond me. I'll say it again what makes anyone think we are going to revert back to any kind of normal or cooler than normal temperature regime going forward I don't think anyone has said we wouldn't except Snowman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: The baseline is already high. Once we get into positive territory we usually hit a top 10 warmest month. It's gotten ridiculous. I agree and understand 100% The baseline is only gonna be going higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 9 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: Here are the High Temps for NYC from this week in 2015 61 66 66 66 68 52 59 Lets cut the sensationalist garbage already. It’s warm enough without the exaggerations needed. i thought that month didn't count 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 11, 2021 Author Share Posted December 11, 2021 63 here in Brooklyn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 27 minutes ago, binbisso said: As we head towards peak climo end of the month through January we don't need super cold temperatures to snow and we probably would want a hint of a Southeast ridge. We don't want the Front blowing through Jacksonville we want the baroclinic zone to be near us I disagree in the New York City area you want as cold as you can get because we rarely get suppression but we often aren’t cold enough. In my experience living 47 years here it’s deep arctic cold that usually brings memorable snow and wintry periods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said: I disagree in the New York City area you want as cold as you can get because we rarely get suppression but we often aren’t cold enough. In my experience living 47 years here it’s deep arctic cold that usually brings memorable snow and wintry periods. We've definitely has some really cold snowstorms but I feel like the i95 corridor gets it's best chances when the cold relaxes a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 33 minutes ago, Rjay said: BLM is in the 60s now as well. Newark just tied the record high. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 241 PM EST SAT DEC 11 2021 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE TIED AT NEWARK NJ... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 65 WAS TIED AT NEWARK NJ TODAY. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 65 SET IN 1971. AN UPDATE WILL BE SENT IF A HIGHER TEMPERATURE IS REACHED. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 34 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: Here are the High Temps for NYC from this week in 2015 61 66 66 66 68 52 59 Lets cut the sensationalist garbage already. It’s warm enough without the exaggerations needed. If you have to compare it to December 2015 a +11 month then you've already lost the argument. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 5 hours ago, bluewave said: All the ensembles continue the strong -PNA pattern until close to Christmas. So this keeps pumping the SE Ridge. Maybe some improvement after Christmas. There have been a few surprises so far since mid-November….remember the “unanimous” predictions for a very cold and snowy end of November through mid-late December? Then there was predictions of a major SSW, SPV split and a record weak SPV for December?……we have anything but a record weak SPV right now: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 Newark has now reached 66. The old record was 65, which was set in 1966 and tied in 1971. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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