Typhoon Tip Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: So...Euro is near 90 in Dallas on Christmas. W.T.F. You know this is impossible to know without the model super computers doing a reanalysis model run technique - say, but I wonder just intuitively, about climate relativity Suppose if we took this exact hemisphere, and transported it back in time to 1950 ... 1980 ...2010 and today, do these respective eras 'do that' in Dallas on December 24? Course, we are talking about model for Dec 24 - it hasn't happened yet. ... But even if stops short in the 80s down there, that's probably what ? + 2 or even 3 SD ?? So the implicit question here is - of course - related to climate change. What makes this complicated, is... climate change may be more influential to the circulation anomaly, than it is to the thermal state of December 24 in Dallas. Like... it could be 90 in Dallas on December 24 1950, but the climate of the hemispheric circulation eddy would less likely promote that oddity from realization. So the difference in favorability, vs a warmer atmosphere - there's a subtle distinction there, but either way, it would be interesting to see if the super computers spit out 90 in Dallas 1950s given the same inputs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2021 Author Share Posted December 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Should be a fun Christmas dinner in the Wood household with bare ground and his daughter bringing home the boyfriend with two holes cut in the bottom of his ears. I'm glad my kids aren't around for the holidays..they would surely learn that there is no Santa at the tender ages of 2 and 8 months, respectively. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 12 minutes ago, powderfreak said: It seems taboo but I have this weird fascination with spending one Christmas of my life in a hot, tropical place with palm trees. That’s not DFW but sort of reminded me with the temperatures. Just to see how that climo part of the world experiences Xmas. Air conditioning while opening packages must be a trip. 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Not Christmas, but I've been to the USVIs and in SW FL right after Christmas. Kind of cool seeing palm trees all lit up with Christmas lights. I wouldn't mind opening gifts and going to a beach bar to rip back a few pain killers. Flew to Puerto Rico on Christmas Day a few years back, and did my semester in Hawaii starting just after New Year's Day. Palm tress and Christmas lights go great together. Heavy, heavy rum drinks. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 It seems taboo but I have this weird fascination with spending one Christmas of my life in a hot, tropical place with palm trees. That’s not DFW but sort of reminded me with the temperatures. Just to see how that climo part of the world experiences Xmas. Air conditioning while opening packages must be a trip.Heading to key West with the family mid-morning Christmas Day through New Year's Day. It's much easier to do that stuff once the kids are older and don't really care about presents as much 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2021 Author Share Posted December 21, 2021 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: Flew to Puerto Rico on Christmas Day a few years back, and did my semester in Hawaii starting just after New Year's Day. Palm tress and Christmas lights go great together. Heavy, heavy rum drinks. Should spend xmas by myself in the Sierra Nevada this year lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm glad my kids aren't around for the holidays..they would surely learn that there is no Santa at the tender ages of 2 and 8 months, respectively. Hoping to squeeze something out around that date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Should spend xmas by myself in the Sierra Nevada this year lol You might not get out until after New Years in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Those temp anomalies....winter of yore in Seattle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 I cant wait until the pattern changes. All this frustration will be a thing of the past and we will all win. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Those temp anomalies....winter of yore in Seattle. Ha. Look for some snow down on the vegas strip in this pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 I mean that's cool for weenies out there. This could be a fun stretch for them. They've baked a several times these last 10+ years. Time for some pay back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 19 minutes ago, powderfreak said: It seems taboo but I have this weird fascination with spending one Christmas of my life in a hot, tropical place with palm trees. That’s not DFW but sort of reminded me with the temperatures. Just to see how that climo part of the world experiences Xmas. Air conditioning while opening packages must be a trip. Kevin had his on last Christmas 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 It's amazing how many shortwaves are running into this block between new and New Years...like there could literally be 5 or 6 different chances in a 10 day period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2021 Author Share Posted December 21, 2021 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: You might not get out until after New Years in this pattern. I have thought about it, but my mom's gonna be 80 in March.....who knows how many more she has. But Sierra Nevada in a pattern like this is on my bucket list. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 498 thicknesses near Seattle and Vancouver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Puget Sound freezing over and gardening still in SW CT? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2021 Author Share Posted December 21, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: 498 thicknesses near Seattle and Vancouver. This is their 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: This is their 2015. Might be on the drier side as the ass of the cold sits on their face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2021 Author Share Posted December 21, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: Might be on the drier side as the ass of the cold sits on their face. Ehh...maybe a few Pfffftttt with ratios? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I am talking 3-5 days out....in general models have improved, but they are struggling with this pattern. I don't ever remember models being this good 3-5 days out. The situation we have is more models and more model runs than ever before. That creates an enhanced impression of inter- and intra-model discontinuity. People are also hyper focused on their local region, particularly the surface features. I think that leads to unreasonable expectations with respect to model accuracy and continuity. Yes weather models perform worse during active periods in the mid-latitudes. But even this year, we've rarely seen the large 5-day model errors that we saw 10 years ago - even 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2021 Author Share Posted December 21, 2021 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It's amazing how many shortwaves are running into this block between new and New Years...like there could literally be 5 or 6 different chances in a 10 day period. Maybe one flake per shortwave? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2021 Author Share Posted December 21, 2021 1 minute ago, eduggs said: I don't ever remember models being this good 3-5 days out. The situation we have is more models and more model runs than ever before. That creates an enhanced impression of inter- and intra-model discontinuity. People are also hyper focused on their local region, particularly the surface features. I think that leads to unreasonable expectations with respect to model accuracy and continuity. Yes weather models perform worse during active periods in the mid-latitudes. But even this year, we've rarely seen the large 5-day model errors that we saw 10 years ago - even 5. In general you are correct, but not in this pattern, this week....all I am saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Euro srfc temps are insane up there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 -80F coming for Peter Sinks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Euro srfc temps are insane up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: Euro srfc temps are insane up there. I just keep looping the Sierra QPF progs for next 10 days lol. Just straight incredible moisture stream. One low departs and another is right on its ass hitting the same spot 12 hours later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: I just keep looping the Sierra QPF progs for next 10 days lol. Just straight incredible moisture stream. One low departs and another is right on its ass hitting the same spot 12 hours later. All the same ones that make it here and whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Days and days of -30s and -40s in the upper plains. Omicron gone wild in the Dakotas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Good, It will burn itself out here soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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