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December 2021 Medium/Long Range Discussion Thread


North Balti Zen
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2 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

70F, t-shirts, choking woodsmoke haze and a warm SW wind or bust.

This is where cold Novembers lead you. We might be doubly f*cked from the bad climo and pattern recognition I cannot even imagine what is waiting for us.

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On 11/21/2021 at 7:15 AM, WxUSAF said:

Some signs that maybe we can get the MJO out of the maritime continent toward phase 7 (at least) with some amplitude during the first week of December. After the probable warm start to December, that could force some colder conditions into the second week.

 

DT woofing about this now as the Australian MJO forecast shows the wave getting to phase 8 with moderate-strong amplitude by Dec 10 and then going into the COD from there. If that happens, that should provide a long wave pattern supportive of cold/snow for us in mid-December. 

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Just now, WxUSAF said:

DT woofing about this now as the Australian MJO forecast shows the wave getting to phase 8 with moderate-strong amplitude by Dec 10 and then going into the COD from there. If that happens, that should provide a long wave pattern supportive of cold/snow for us in mid-December. 

My 6" - 10" hybrid Miller A for Christmas Eve is starting to line up.

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33 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Have been following the (threat?) next week for a bit but almost all of the gfs runs have the storm never quite survive and has it reform too Far East. What’s the difference in pattern that is causing the Euro to support it while the GFS has the low die off? 

This GIF shows the differences between the 3 globals for this shortwave. GFS doesn't even key on that shortwave at all.  GGEM phases it with another northern stream shortwave, which pulls it north.  Euro keeps it separate and has very suppressive flow offshore in the Atlantic, which keeps it tracking south of us.

From previous clipper experience+climo, the GFS or GGEM solutions are FAR more likely than the Euro solution.  These northern stream shortwaves usually pass to our north, especially in November!  

 

models-2021112212-f144.500h_anom.conus-2.gif

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6 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

DT woofing about this now as the Australian MJO forecast shows the wave getting to phase 8 with moderate-strong amplitude by Dec 10 and then going into the COD from there. If that happens, that should provide a long wave pattern supportive of cold/snow for us in mid-December. 

Isn't the MJO the thing that teased us all winter long back in 2019-20? And wreaked havoc with LR forecasts? 

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17 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

DT woofing about this now as the Australian MJO forecast shows the wave getting to phase 8 with moderate-strong amplitude by Dec 10 and then going into the COD from there. If that happens, that should provide a long wave pattern supportive of cold/snow for us in mid-December. 

Did he DM you on twitter too?  I love my chats with him

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On 11/22/2021 at 8:50 AM, ldub23 said:

JB is right  again. Here comes winter and a bitter  cold Dec. He  is now saying signs  point to a very  cold  Jan.

 

 

 

gfs_T2m_us_65.png

Wait...did he just refer to "Biden Blackouts?"

What an embarrassingly unprofessional fuqstiq. Dude's brain is a ball of rot from all the juice he's been juicin'.

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38 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

ICON keeps this little clipper just to our south which is probably exactly where we want it at this point

Definitely want it south right now. Almost always adjust north within 24-48 hours. GFS has the energy as well, just weaker.

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  • WxUSAF changed the title to December 2021 Medium/Long Range Discussion Thread

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