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Winter 2021-22 Short/Medium Range Discussion


Chicago Storm
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45 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

You said it yourself.  Time for everyone to your east to cash in a bit.  You Iowa folk have had some great winters the  past few years.  Throw us a bone!!

2 of the past 3 winters have been good in Iowa but honestly before then, we cashed in far more than them.  And we all enjoyed deep snow last Feb.  Slow starts make everyone snow hungry but hopefully this entire sub cashes in as Winter clearly is ready to go on a rampage.

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14 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

2 of the past 3 winters have been good in Iowa but honestly before then, we cashed in far more than them.  And we all enjoyed deep snow last Feb.  Slow starts make everyone snow hungry but hopefully this entire sub cashes in as Winter clearly is ready to go on a rampage.

Pretty sure Hawkeyewx said he's had 4 AN winters. Sorry, I'm with Frogtown on this one.

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15 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Pretty sure Hawkeyewx said he's had 4 AN winters. Sorry, I'm with Frogtown on this one.

Just so nothing is lost in the translation, I will never, ever, EVER root against my backyard/SE MI lmao.  I just meant that with iowa's snowless start to the season I wouldn't mind a little bit of spread the wealth. And bowling balls, one of my favorites, do just that. Iowa in general seems to be a little colder and a little less snowy than here. If you want to be technical, Detroit has had above average snow 3 of the 4 past winters, the previous 2 just ever so slightly above average, 18-19 well below, and 17-18 well above.  The cold is definitely coming for January, so let's hope plenty of white is as well.

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Looks like the Indiana and Ohio peeps will get in on the action with next Thursday's storm system.  New Euro blasts Ohio with a warning criteria event.

EDIT:  Nevermind, forgot Ohio has it's own special segregated thread where this is already being discussed.  Guess no need to talk about it here.

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8 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Looks like the Indiana and Ohio peeps will get in on the action with next Thursday's storm system.  New Euro blasts Ohio with a warning criteria event.

EDIT:  Nevermind, forgot Ohio has it's own special segregated thread where this is already being discussed.  Guess no need to talk about it here.

People from Ohio are so special they get their own thread 

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51 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Looks like the Indiana and Ohio peeps will get in on the action with next Thursday's storm system.  New Euro blasts Ohio with a warning criteria event.

EDIT:  Nevermind, forgot Ohio has it's own special segregated thread where this is already being discussed.  Guess no need to talk about it here.

Make your own thread then. EVERY system is a thread the needle system for us here in central Ohio. We are reminded over and over by your kind that our climatology sucks for snow. God forbid we have a little excitement for a rare maybe couple of inches of snow. 

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IZZI to the rescue in the LOT AFD if you need a hype fix during bland times and still recovering from the New Years Day storm fail:

"THURSDAY BEARS WATCHING AND COULD TURN INTO A PROBLEM IN OR NEAR  
OUR CWA. THE GFS, ECMWF, AND GEM WITH SUPPORT FROM THEIR  
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES ALL QUICKLY BREAK DOWN/OPEN UP THE CUT OFF  
MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WITH THE  
REMNANT CHANNELIZED VORTICITY MAXIMUM FORECAST TO RIDE THE FAST   
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EMERGE OUT ONTO THE HIGH   
PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY AT THIS   
POINT, WITH THE GFS AND MOST OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SLOW TO   
DEEPEN THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES, WHILE THE   
ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE. IT IS COMMON BOTH FOR MODELS TO STRUGGLE  
WITH THESE NARROW, CHANNELIZED VORT MAXES THIS FAR OUT, AND ALSO   
NOT UNCOMMON FOR GUIDANCE TO TREND STRONGER AND MORE AMPLIFIED.   
THE ECMWF AND GEM DEEPEN THIS WAVE TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES MUCH   
MORE QUICKLY THAN THE GFS AND AT THIS POINT, A SOLUTION LEANING   
TOWARD THE ECMWF/GEM COMBO IS REASONABLE.   
  
THE ECMWF/GEM WOULD BOTH THROW LIGHT QPF WITH THIS DEEPENING  
TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA THURSDAY. THANKS TO  
THE ANTECEDENT COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE, THERMAL PROFILES FEATURE A  
VERY DEEP ISOTHERMAL LAYER EMBEDDED WITHIN THE PRIME DGZ, SO  
ASSUMING ASCENT IS RESPECTABLY STRONG, IT COULD BE A VERY HIGH  
SNOW:LIQUID RATIO EVENT. IF LATER RUNS DO COME IN MORE AMPLIFIED,  
AS THEY OFTEN DO WITH THESE TYPE OF WAVES, A NORTHWARD TREND IN  
THE TRACK OF THE WAVE COULD RESULT IN A SNOW THREAT FARTHER NORTH  
INTO OUR CWA. CURRENT RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS LOW LEVEL FLOW IN A  
FAVORABLE NORTHERLY DIRECTION TO POINT LAKE EFFECT FIRE HOSE INTO  
OUR NORTHWEST INDIANA COUNTIES FOR A TIME THURSDAY AS WELL. OTHER  
GUIDANCE IS FARTHER EAST, BUT GIVEN WHAT LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE A  
ROBUST LAKE EFFECT SET-UP FOR SOMEONE, THIS IS ANOTHER ASPECT OF  
THE SYSTEM THAT BEARS WATCHING. A LOT OF MOVING PIECES, SO A LOT   
COULD CHANGE, BUT THE THURSDAY-ISH TIME FRAME WILL NEED TO BE  
WATCHED. "

 

It's something.

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On 1/1/2022 at 1:53 AM, cyclone77 said:

EDIT:  Nevermind, forgot Ohio has it's own special segregated thread where this is already being discussed.  Guess no need to talk about it here.

 

On 1/1/2022 at 2:01 AM, NEILwxbo said:

People from Ohio are so special they get their own thread 

Yea, it's a head scratcher, can't understand why.

quad.JPG

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4 hours ago, Baum said:

IZZI to the rescue in the LOT AFD if you need a hype fix during bland times and still recovering from the New Years Day storm fail:

 

 

It's something.

prescient stuff with the 12z nam coming in hot

not bad to be riding northern fringe with this airmass and warm lake nearby

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1 hour ago, buckeye said:

 

Yea, it's a head scratcher, can't understand why.

quad.JPG

its actually funny this is being discussed as the other day I was curious and having form identity crisis :lol:  My location ~25 miles East of Cleveland is closer  to Buffalo (NY threads) or Pittsburgh then say Detroit let alone Chicago 

 

My Location to Buffalo 172 Miles

My Location to Detroit 197 Miles

My location to Columbus 169 Miles 

My Location to Pittsburgh 150 Miles

My Location to Chicago 373 Miles

my county in Blue 

image.thumb.png.35500e92c4aac96d45ae2880cd3350e8.png

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6 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:


you have no point there, given detroit folks post in the main threads.


.

My point is geography, yours is, "but someone else is doing it...".

 

But I know there was another reason why us Ohioans don't like participating in the main threads....hmmmm....what was it again?....

On 1/1/2022 at 1:53 AM, cyclone77 said:

EDIT:  Nevermind, forgot Ohio has it's own special segregated thread where this is already being discussed.  Guess no need to talk about it here.

 

On 1/1/2022 at 2:01 AM, NEILwxbo said:

People from Ohio are so special they get their own thread 

 

5 hours ago, MidwestChaser said:

Look at it this way; do we really want potential Ohio State fans getting everything messy with Skyline Chili? It’s better to keep them contained.

 

6 hours ago, mimillman said:

Lord

 

11 minutes ago, hlcater said:

please dont encourage them, they're better off in quarantine

...oh that's right, the weird hardon and snark that some of you have for Ohio posters.    

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Just now, buckeye said:

My point is geography, yours is, "but someone else is doing it...".

 

But I know there was another reason why us Ohioans don't like participating in the main threads....hmmmm....what was it again?....

 

 

 

 

...oh that's right, the weird hardon and snark that some of you have for Ohio posters.    

your point is flawed though, given my point is geography based to. i just didn't post some random mileage map.

and i'm pretty sure cyclone was originally trying to include you all, before eventually going back to edit his post with some truthful sarcasm. it's not our fault ya'll (ohioans) make yourself to be outcasts in this sub-forum.

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15 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

your point is flawed though, given my point is geography based to. i just didn't post some random mileage map.

and i'm pretty sure cyclone was originally trying to include you all, before eventually going back to edit his post with some truthful sarcasm. it's not our fault ya'll (ohioans) make yourself to be outcasts in this sub-forum.

I guess the only way not to be an outcast is to give right back to y'all.    But I have a feeling the butt-hurt screams would be deafening.

17 minutes ago, Cartier God said:

yes its because people from ohio dont understand jokes

29 posts.   You haven't earned a reply,    (just joking)

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about that IZZI hype for LOT:

"HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN SEEING SNOW ON THURSDAY HAS DROPPED   
QUITE A BIT WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDING TOWARD THE IDEA   
THAT THE MAJORITY, IF NOT ALL, OF THE RESULTING SNOW WILL FALL   
DOWNSTATE AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH THE TROUGH NOW FORECAST TO   
SET UP FURTHER SOUTH. A FEW MEMBERS FROM BOTH THE EURO AND GFS   
ENSEMBLES STILL HAVE ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN ~HALF OF   
THE CWA, BUT THE TREND IS CERTAINLY POINTING TOWARD LITTLE TO NO   
SNOW.  "

squashed by forecaster  DOOM

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1 hour ago, buckeye said:

 

...oh that's right, the weird hardon and snark that some of you have for Ohio posters.    

Nah, it’s just weird Ohio people basically have their own private forum while the rest of us discuss openly. It’s counterproductive and comes off as conceited. Not you necessarily but just in general it gives off negative energy 

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1 minute ago, NEILwxbo said:

Nah, it’s just weird Ohio people basically have their own private forum while the rest of us discuss openly. It’s counterproductive and comes off as conceited. Not you necessarily but just in general it gives off negative energy 

Tbf though, what is good for Ohio isn't for most of this forum except for southern Indiana. Plus there has been a lot of butthurt over the years because we 'steal' their snow. Having them in their own thread is much better for the sanity of the rest of us.

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11 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Having Ohio discussion in separate threads is what has worked best.  It is what it is.

Separate regional threads within a subforum is not something unique to this subforum.  For example, there are northern New England thread(s) in the New England sub.

The problem tho is where do you stop? does Brian D then have his own subform just because the geographical region?  He'd be the only one contributing.

To me it's about the number of posters in each region/sub,. Once the number of posters increase, then you can better argue a new sub forum

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