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November Discussion


40/70 Benchmark
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I understand why people are anxious...its disturbing seeing low heights INVOF AK to begin the season, but I mentioned in the write up that that would be a thing this season. 2011-2012 was used as a Pacific analog for a reason. However, I am confident that it will not ruin the season like it did 10 years ago. It's not going to be a wall to wall winter and we just need to tolerate that. 

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I understand why people are anxious...its disturbing seeing low heights INVOF AK to begin the season, but I mentioned in the write up that that would be a thing this season. 2011-2012 was used as a Pacific analog for a reason. However, I am confident that it will not ruin the season like it did 10 years ago. It's not going to be a wall to wall winter and we just need to tolerate that. 

Ray what do you think of 2016-17 as an analog?  Chris thinks thats a better analog than 2011-12 because it looks like we will have more NAO blocking than we did in 2011-12 and it will be more like 2016-17

 

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One thing I noticed this morning is that the tropical convection forecast on the EPS does finally try to nudge east. I think some of those PNA forecasts going boom was due to convection more closer to Nina climo. The nudge east supports more of a dateline ridge probably after first week of December. EPS tries to show that. 
In that graphic below, look how far west the convection is. That’s probably not supportive of a -EPO to +PNA ridge for more than a few transient days despite what the models showed last week and the week before. But, it finally shows signs of moving east which supports more dateline ridging. Now to make sure we are on the good side of the gradient.

 

650AF8F9-D678-4E3D-BFA9-0D2EEDE34C5D.png

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9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

One thing I noticed this morning is that the tropical convection forecast on the EPS does finally try to nudge east. I think some of those PNA forecasts going boom was due to convection more closer to Nina climo. The nudge east supports more of a dateline ridge probably after first week of December. EPS tries to show that. 
In that graphic below, look how far west the convection is. That’s probably not supportive of a -EPO to +PNA ridge for more than a few transient days despite what the models showed last week and the week before. But, it finally shows signs of moving east which supports more dateline ridging. Now to make sure we are on the good side of the gradient.

 

650AF8F9-D678-4E3D-BFA9-0D2EEDE34C5D.png

Good Morning Scott, didn't you say yesterday the EPS lost the ridge or something to that effect? Or cold air will be nearby but not sure if it will dip down to us? Sorry lost on this one! 

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4 minutes ago, 512high said:

Good Morning Scott, didn't you say yesterday the EPS lost the ridge or something to that effect? Or cold air will be nearby but not sure if it will dip down to us? Sorry lost on this one! 

It’s keeping the low around the AK area more persistent. Probably due to Pacific reshuffle and in tandem with Nina base state. So in other words, there probably wasn’t much going for some of those model solutions of western NAMR ridging being persistent? That’s my guess. 
 

There is a lot of volatility in the pattern. For instance guidance looks much better in the Pacific compared to yesterday, but now more of a positive NAO. I just think we are seeing things shuffle around and people are just going to have to be patient. It’s going to be awhile for snow chances outside of maybe NNE. 

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Here is an example. This is current day 10 prog vs day 15 valid for December 1. It’s not totally far off, but look how potent the trough is near AK and into GOAK. It’s a bit further east too. Yeah day 10 looks chilly, but that’s about to be booted out of here right after day 10. To me the current prog looks more realistic for that timeframe. 
I do think it changes after first week.

 

 

7BF6C314-E2C4-489E-BC93-E112C9C994A3.png

DAD7017C-28BD-4B18-AD7E-EE33BA7F66AE.png

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19 hours ago, DavisStraight said:

What brand? I'm going to get one but just researching right now, want a 16 inch

My advice is to make sure you get the same brand for all the yard tools so you don't have a bazzillion different batteries, Personally i went with green works and it has not been disappointing.

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19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Or I could be totally wrong lol. I don’t really get into the long range voodoo much anymore. Just care more about the here and now.

I’ve drifted this way as well. I don’t even care what the weeklies are showing. d10 ensembles is about the extent of my care and even then those are only a casual glance. 

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Look I get up at 430 5 ish every day but... up the street neighbor was out at 630 AM on a Sunday with his jet engine leaf blower. I have a wheelbarrow full of Acorns that I wanted  to  use with my slingshot and peck them off his head. It would've been a long shot but I bet I could have gotten a few off his noggin. LOL. We had our 2 year old granddaughter over last night and of course it woke her up. Point being cmon people have a little sense of courtesy. 

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6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I understand why people are anxious...its disturbing seeing low heights INVOF AK to begin the season, but I mentioned in the write up that that would be a thing this season. 2011-2012 was used as a Pacific analog for a reason. However, I am confident that it will not ruin the season like it did 10 years ago. It's not going to be a wall to wall winter and we just need to tolerate that. 

2011-2012 scarred us Ray

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5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Look I get up at 430 5 ish every day but... up the street neighbor was out at 630 AM on a Sunday with his jet engine leaf blower. I have a wheelbarrow full of Acorns that I wanted  to  use with my slingshot and peck them off his head. It would've been a long shot but I bet I could have gotten a few off his noggin. LOL. We had our 2 year old granddaughter over last night and of course it woke her up. Point being cmon people have a little sense of courtesy. 

We blow 

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19 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I’ve drifted this way as well. I don’t even care what the weeklies are showing. d10 ensembles is about the extent of my care and even then those are only a casual glance. 

Totally especially after scoring weeklies all summer and fall. Total clown show. Pattern is not persistent so it's a day at a time.  Even OP runs past day 3 have been useless. Mind-blowing really.  

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48 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Or I could be totally wrong lol. I don’t really get into the long range voodoo much anymore. Just care more about the here and now.

I like to lock in the 378 hr blizzard that shows up in every run of the GFS.

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26 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I’ve drifted this way as well. I don’t even care what the weeklies are showing. d10 ensembles is about the extent of my care and even then those are only a casual glance. 

Yeah I mean I look ahead, but 10 years ago I was all into what the indices mean, mtn torque, GLAAM.....all that voodoo. 

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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

One thing I noticed this morning is that the tropical convection forecast on the EPS does finally try to nudge east. I think some of those PNA forecasts going boom was due to convection more closer to Nina climo. The nudge east supports more of a dateline ridge probably after first week of December. EPS tries to show that. 
In that graphic below, look how far west the convection is. That’s probably not supportive of a -EPO to +PNA ridge for more than a few transient days despite what the models showed last week and the week before. But, it finally shows signs of moving east which supports more dateline ridging. Now to make sure we are on the good side of the gradient.

 

650AF8F9-D678-4E3D-BFA9-0D2EEDE34C5D.png

Question will be how strong the wave will be as it moves east into the favorable phases. Currently, all the warm water is in p4/5. If it is a weak wave the effects of those cooler phases might be muted some. 

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Look I get up at 430 5 ish every day but... up the street neighbor was out at 630 AM on a Sunday with his jet engine leaf blower. I have a wheelbarrow full of Acorns that I wanted  to  use with my slingshot and peck them off his head. It would've been a long shot but I bet I could have gotten a few off his noggin. LOL. We had our 2 year old granddaughter over last night and of course it woke her up. Point being cmon people have a little sense of courtesy. 

Most towns have noise ordinances that go to 7am.  Call the police. Or buy a wrist rocket slingshot and light his ass up with acorns. 
:devilsmiley:

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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

One thing I noticed this morning is that the tropical convection forecast on the EPS does finally try to nudge east. I think some of those PNA forecasts going boom was due to convection more closer to Nina climo. The nudge east supports more of a dateline ridge probably after first week of December. EPS tries to show that. 
In that graphic below, look how far west the convection is. That’s probably not supportive of a -EPO to +PNA ridge for more than a few transient days despite what the models showed last week and the week before. But, it finally shows signs of moving east which supports more dateline ridging. Now to make sure we are on the good side of the gradient.

 

650AF8F9-D678-4E3D-BFA9-0D2EEDE34C5D.png

Could be like 07 -08. We were on the right side of the gradient all year up here but you weren’t always down there.  Or could be like the more recent year where we were on the wrong side of the grading a lot but Quebec city piled up two hundred plus inches

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We have a new weenie, I mean met. @NHDrySlot  might be a little bashful, but one of the top mets I know. Welcome to the jungle. We’ve got fun and games. 

Three decades worth of experience weathering the most painful dryslots and "near misses" in the Merrimack Valley area. Cynical until I hit the 24-30" jackpot.

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