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November Discussion

40/70 Benchmark

By 40/70 Benchmark,
in New England

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powderfreak
powderfreak

Cell phone shots but decent sky scenes walking the dog this evening along the river.  Water receded pretty fast after the rains, but still decent compared to mid-summer levels. Walking the villag

powderfreak
powderfreak

Seasons in seasons.

weathafella
weathafella

That’s a sizable shift on the GEFS!  Festive mood now-cold is here-brought up my heaviest coat and retired the windbreaker for the season.  Turkey, whiskey, cold, and maybe snow.   Today hope is alive

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, dendrite said:

The world would be better off killing off 25 80% of the human population, then having the rest be devoted to virtuosity, science, some sort of sense of spiritualistic humanism rich in 'belonging,' while perhaps most of all, conserved and wise with nature's resource procurement practices, too.

 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

How likely do you think it is?

Depends what you are talking about....any flakes at all? That's probably got a half-decent chance. Something like advisory snows or better? That's not very likely for the non-mountain areas being 7 days out....but it's worth keeping an eye on because of the ensembles support for something.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

29.2F low

Same ...

lawn's ashen aglow as though mortified in the night and is now wise; ha, sort of like when life's taken its toll.  

I tell ya, I was a bit perplexed this didn't headline from our NWS office(s) where applicable, late yesterday. It was air apparent this was a heavy frost, borderline hard freeze night and I don't believe the region had to-date passed through that rite of passage into deep autumn.  I wondered if perhaps they opted out of issuance, if based upon the notion that the growing season had simply, already just run-out of time; belayed seasonal first dip allowing it to gradual extinction ... now irrelevant to warn.  However, upon reading their AFD, the content didn't reflect that reasoning. It was odd, with statements like, ' ... the colder areas might make the low 30s so patchy frost could take place' - or words to that affect.   Uh, ya think?

27 to 30 appears to be a common backyard home-station low when popping around Wunderground, and looking at Mesowest's rendition, FIT and ASH were 30 and BED was 28, so I don't have a problem with the Wunder spread here. 

This was a heavy frost headliner overnight over a large aspect of the interior, that was borderline 'freeze' by definition.  Big deal?  No. Of all the headline impactor facets of weather, ... this has always struck me as lower priority.  Frosty nights are not doing anything that cannot be accepted as maintenance 'normal' inconveniences.  But ...I don't mean to cast anti-cancel-culture "shade" over the 'first-night-of-30 f' crowd and hurt their feelings, either -

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
35 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Depends what you are talking about....any flakes at all? That's probably got a half-decent chance. Something like advisory snows or better? That's not very likely for the non-mountain areas being 7 days out....but it's worth keeping an eye on because of the ensembles support for something.

So what you're saying is 3-6"?

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Chrisrotary12

Chrisrotary12

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, dendrite said:

31.2°

Really wanted to make it to Novie freeze free. Oh well. 

Didn't you learn earlier....a freeze doesn't happen until the mid-20s for temps.

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Pretty cool inversion this morning. Up on the hill here no frost...just dew and about 36-37...got to the bottom and everything was frosted. Heavy frost down there. 

 

Same here. I sit at 410'. The bottom of my hill is 0.5 miles away and 215' lower with heavy frost this AM.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Both EPS and GEFS have something to keep an eye on for 11/4-11/5.

...

...

...

 

Agreed ...

If I might add ( imo ). Normal to even below normal  ( imagine that ) during early November was the only hook and draw for the period.

If we get to November 10, having the best realized cold impact be shallow interior ponds briefly freezing over, while (at least) finally the lawns stop growing ( jesus christ), folks with rational expectations will be fine with it.  Which concomitantly means, if anyone posts one f'ing intoned turn of phrase that grouses matters at that time, that means you are not rational :)     mm-k there frosty pumpkins.   

Now, obviously there is sane truth to the notion, you cannot snow without supportive atmosphere - and in principle, not being in the 70s helps.  In fact, having hydrostatic heights below 540 dm, helps quite a bit too.  So in this sense we have 1 aspect in field-equation's worth of variables - check! There is some weight in operational run suggestion/continuity of that one particular aspect. Combining telecon spread ( from the GEFs system), to lay in a "snow atmosphere" ... at least is foundation.  

It's definitely originating in the large synoptic evolution - I like that, with first entry northern Plains, than seasonal negative anomalies spreading eastern to the Lakes and eventually upper OV and NE... We began sustaining a -NAO weeks ago, and that's on-going.  I am noticing the D7 to 10 in the 00z operational (Euro and GFS ) are in fact deflating the lower D. Straight block, and a new one formulates over the NW Territories of the Canadian Shield.  This total behavior is really indicative of a 'block favoring' hemisphere, overall.  So, it's hard to target the NAO as any more or less causal in any set up, over just the former distinction playing its role.   Interesting...   Meanwhile, the American system's PNA is bouncing around positive.  This in total is a low to medium cold-biased pattern for the mid latitudes of the continent, and so ... that's the frame up for the colder regime.

This appears to last 3 or 4 days.   The front side, and end periods of that range might feature something more specific that avails. 

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
12 hours ago, dendrite said:

Everyone is out there gunning for huge strong bucks.

On a related note...that chronic wasting disease in deer is looking pretty serious. That's going to be culling a lot of the herd as well. Hopefully it doesn't make it up here and doesn't spread to humans.

Everyone wants to get the older bucks that no longer can compete with the 3-4 yr olds, The thing is, The population has exploded up here due to many factors one being milder winters, I have 1 any deer permit (buck or doe) and was awarded 2 bonus ones that are does only, So theoretically i can harvest 3 deer this season.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Same ...

lawn's ashen aglow as though mortified in the night and is now wise; ha, sort of like when life's taken its toll.  

I tell ya, I was a bit perplexed this didn't headline from our NWS office(s) where applicable, late yesterday. It was air apparent this was a heavy frost, borderline hard freeze night and I don't believe the region had to-date passed through that rite of passage into deep autumn.  I wondered if perhaps they opted out of issuance, if based upon the notion that the growing season had simply, already just run-out of time; belayed seasonal first dip allowing it to gradual extinction ... now irrelevant to warn.  However, upon reading their AFD, the content didn't reflect that reasoning. It was odd, with statements like, ' ... the colder areas might make the low 30s so patchy frost could take place' - or words to that affect.   Uh, ya think?

27 to 30 appears to be a common backyard home-station low when popping around Wunderground, and looking at Mesowest's rendition, FIT and ASH were 30 and BED was 28, so I don't have a problem with the Wunder spread here. 

This was a heavy frost headliner overnight over a large aspect of the interior, that was borderline 'freeze' by definition.  Big deal?  No. Of all the headline impactor facets of weather, ... this has always struck me as lower priority.  Frosty nights are not doing anything that cannot be accepted as maintenance 'normal' inconveniences.  But ...I don't mean to cast anti-cancel-culture "shade" over the 'first-night-of-30 f' crowd and hurt their feelings, either -

They had issued a statement saying growing season had ended and their would be no more frost advisories

 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

It's a pretty deep trough with some blocking upstream in Canada which will help shortwaves rotating around it dig. Definitely something we need to keep an eye on.

 

Regardless, the first week of November looks solidly below normal. Then it looks like a bit of a torchy pattern mid-month and then we'll see if that late-month snap back to colder materializes.

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