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OBS and nowcast 9PM tonight-8A Wednesday for a general 2-5" rain, isolated 8" possible. 40-60 kt damaging wind likely Tuesday-early Wednesday. Focus for damaging wind and heaviest rain is the I95 corridor to the coasts. Power outages esp CT LI.


wdrag
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This first event is slated mainly for Monday night-early Tuesday night but with a pulse of showers, some heavy occurring overnight Sunday night and potential for bands of high wind and or heavy rain remaining in the NYC subforum into early Wednesday, depending on the departure of the eventual nor'easter.

Max gust for e LI may get close to 70 MPH with wind damage 'potential' of 50 MPH gusts s of I84 in CT into far se NYS through ne NJ. Fully leaved tree branches with potential for sodden ground uproots Tuesday due to heavy rainfall and the gusts should result in pockets of power outages from simply broken branches.  If it looks extensive, we will update the topic title. 

Max rainfall seems to be targeting CT/se NYS/NYC metro-ne NJ but proximity of max inflow-moisture transport still showing modeling variability for the primary target. 

In any case... it appears likely that along and north of I78 there will be periodic showers overnight with new rainfall by sunrise ranging from a few hundredths to possibly 1".  After a break Monday, bands of heavy showers should be developing north and northwest into the area Monday evening and slow their northwest to west progress Tuesday before turning southward later Tuesday night. By 8AM Wed, isolated 6" rains may have occurred with a general 1.5-3" in the subforum. FF potential while initially limited by recent dryness, the rainfall rates and amounts in banding will eventually determine where any FF potential will be realized-it's just too early to determine, as of this 720PM Sunday writing. 

Please follow all future NWS warnings/statements. 

Let's see what the OBS herein tell us about the modeling by Tuesday night. 

Edited title rainfall up from 1.5-4 iso 6, to 2-5, iso 8. 

Edited title at 1025A/26 to like 40-60KT gust focused on CT-LI.

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1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

6z Euro has up to 9 inches of rain for parts of NJ

1635354000-T7CwNVUKOvY.png

Gradually increasing amounts. Widespread 4-6" totals looking likely with isolated 8"+ amounts. 

I'm seeing a double barreled low with one low on the coast and a second SE of LI.

Eventually the two merge what is why the eastern low loops west to just off the NJ coast.

Wind impacts could come from the initial low on the coast and from the subtropical like storm that retros. You can really see the LLJ increase on the HRRR.

LI is going to get whacked. I definitely could see them getting near hurricane force gusts 

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  • wdrag changed the title to OBS and nowcast 9PM tonight-8A Wednesday for a general 2-5" rain, isolated 8" possible with 40-60 kt damaging wind 'potential' Tuesday-Tuesday evening. Primary focus for damaging wind and heaviest rain is the I95 corridor to the coasts.

Rainfall with the warm front was generally 1/2" extreme north to nil extreme south. 

Have adjusted title rainfall up a touch to 2-5", iso 8" but that's it for me at this time.  Wind I expect as previously noted. Best chance for damaging wind Tue night when the storm center and associated 70kt EPS ensembled jet sweep southwest for a while.   60 kt G seems reasonable for extreme e LI Tue night...the strongest out there. 

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0ver 3/4" in less than 1 hr Wantage. My rain data is very close to digital output. i see over 2" in parts of ne NJ now. This is going to be bad news for parts of NNJ/se NYS/NYC/maybe ne PA too. After all the rain next 18 hours we send a bunch of wind southwest thru CT/LI to add power outages. 

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  • wdrag changed the title to OBS and nowcast 9PM tonight-8A Wednesday for a general 2-5" rain, isolated 8" possible. 40-60 kt damaging wind likely Tuesday-early Wednesday. Focus for damaging wind and heaviest rain is the I95 corridor to the coasts. Power outages esp CT LI.
  • IrishRob17 unpinned this topic

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