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2021 Mid-Atlantic First Freeze Contest


WxUSAF
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URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
322 AM EDT Tue Nov 2 2021

MDZ003>006-503-505-507-VAZ025>031-038>040-050-051-501-502-505-507-
508-WVZ051>053-021530-
/O.UPG.KLWX.FZ.A.0007.211103T0600Z-211103T1400Z/
/O.NEW.KLWX.FZ.W.0008.211103T0600Z-211103T1400Z/
Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-
Northwest Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford-Augusta-
Rockingham-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-Greene-
Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper-Northern Fauquier-
Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-
Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-
Including the cities of Hagerstown, Frederick, Ballenger Creek,
Eldersburg, Westminster, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Germantown,
Damascus, Lisbon, Jarrettsville, Staunton, Waynesboro,
Stuarts Draft, Harrisonburg, Strasburg, Woodstock, Mount Jackson,
New Market, Winchester, Luray, Shenandoah, Stanley, Front Royal,
Berryville, Stanardsville, Madison, Washington, Orange,
Gordonsville, Culpeper, Warrenton, Turnbull, Purcellville,
Big Meadows, Wintergreen, Paw Paw, Martinsburg, Charles Town,
and Shepherdstown
322 AM EDT Tue Nov 2 2021

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 29 expected.

* WHERE...The I-81 corridor/Shenandoah Valley in Virginia, West
  Virginia, and Maryland, north central Maryland and portions of
  the Virginia Piedmont.

* WHEN...From 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor
  plumbing.
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Later guesses for the other three won't be eliminated until at least one other station goes in this window of opportunity, as most of those who scored well on IAD have similar dates for BWI and some also for RIC. My thought that it would resemble 1963 has suffered from a fast forward, we had the warm dry three weeks and the warm wet week all compressed into one month now Nov 2021 looking a bit too much like some colder analogues, wouldn't go with my present guesses now but could get lucky I suppose. There's a mountain of hot air from central DC, somebody should look into the reasons for that. ;)

 

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Guest RIC Airport

BWI reached freezing before midnight 11/4. The CLI is based on standard time, not daylight savings time.

Meanwhile, RIC should reach it by sunrise as it currently 35 with plenty of time left.

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35 minutes ago, Guest RIC Airport said:

BWI reached freezing before midnight 11/4. The CLI is based on standard time, not daylight savings time.

Meanwhile, RIC should reach it by sunrise as it currently 35 with plenty of time left.

If anyone had BWI for 11/4, they would've.. guest correctly

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