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2021-2022 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread


BlueRidgeFolklore
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3 minutes ago, NavarreDon said:


What’s the timeline, when does a decision have to be finalized? If you have time follow the model trends. Depends on what part of Hickory & what part of Black Mountain. I’d wait as long as possible to gather the most info then make the call. The great thing is either way will be a win!


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I think it ultimately depends on where the location is in Black Mountain.  Often we get caught in the French Broad valley death trap in some of these storms.  You can see it depicted on some of the snow maps - closer to the McDowell/Buncombe line the better.

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My wife wants to let her mother know as soon as possible.  Probably by tomorrow afternoon we should have it finalized.
  • NW Hickory, approximately one mile from Alexander County line.
  • Between Black Mountain and Swannanoa, near Owen HS.

Man, that’s a tough one! You could get a great dump at home. The in laws spot is not that prone to dry slotting plus it’s a good spot for some flow snow. I think they will get a big one. As I said either will be a win for you with this system. I’d definitely be gathering info (models, afd’s from all the Offices around you GSP, Blacksburg, Raleigh) and make that final decision as late as possible. Sage advice from Octopus, & go with your gut.


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15 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

I would love your guys' perspective on this.  Here's my dilemma:

  • There's nothing like seeing it snow/sleet/whatever in your own backyard, and Hickory has a good chance to get walloped.
  • My in-laws have welcomed us to come spend the weekend with them in Black Mountain (due east of Asheville on I-40, just up Old Fort Mountain).

I think Black Mountain has a much better chance of remaining snow for the entire event (2400 feet elevation), with little chance of mixing in sleet (at least at this point in the forecast).  However, Buncombe County traditionally is the driest county in the state and often has precip minima there compared to surrounding areas.  Ignoring other factors such as my kids playing with cousins in the snow in Black Mountain, which experience would you prefer?

  1. Staying at home and seeing 6+ inches of snow, with an inch or snow of sleet, followed by a deform band with more snow IMBY, OR
  2. Traveling to in-laws and seeing a pure snowstorm with likely 12+ inches of snow on the ground, but they might get downsloped a bit by surrounding mountains.

As you can probably guess, my wife doesn't even understand why it's a dilemma, and she's like, "Let's go to my parents and have fun with the family there".  But there's something so special about seeing it snow, during the day, all day, below freezing, in your own backyard.  And, I'm a sucker for taking records and measurements IMBY, as you can see from my signature line.  :D

What are your thoughts?

 

Probably best going to the inlaws. 

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I would love your guys' perspective on this.  Here's my dilemma:
  • There's nothing like seeing it snow/sleet/whatever in your own backyard, and Hickory has a good chance to get walloped.
  • My in-laws have welcomed us to come spend the weekend with them in Black Mountain (due east of Asheville on I-40, just up Old Fort Mountain).
I think Black Mountain has a much better chance of remaining snow for the entire event (2400 feet elevation), with little chance of mixing in sleet (at least at this point in the forecast).  However, Buncombe County traditionally is the driest county in the state and often has precip minima there compared to surrounding areas.  Ignoring other factors such as my kids playing with cousins in the snow in Black Mountain, which experience would you prefer?
  1. Staying at home and seeing 6+ inches of snow, with an inch or snow of sleet, followed by a deform band with more snow IMBY, OR
  2. Traveling to in-laws and seeing a pure snowstorm with likely 12+ inches of snow on the ground, but they might get downsloped a bit by surrounding mountains.
As you can probably guess, my wife doesn't even understand why it's a dilemma, and she's like, "Let's go to my parents and have fun with the family there".  But there's something so special about seeing it snow, during the day, all day, below freezing, in your own backyard.  And, I'm a sucker for taking records and measurements IMBY, as you can see from my signature line. 
What are your thoughts?
 

Yeah states that do what the wife wants. Or stay where you are and walk the line like I’ll be doing :-)


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26 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

I would love your guys' perspective on this.  Here's my dilemma:

  • There's nothing like seeing it snow/sleet/whatever in your own backyard, and Hickory has a good chance to get walloped.
  • My in-laws have welcomed us to come spend the weekend with them in Black Mountain (due east of Asheville on I-40, just up Old Fort Mountain).

I think Black Mountain has a much better chance of remaining snow for the entire event (2400 feet elevation), with little chance of mixing in sleet (at least at this point in the forecast).  However, Buncombe County traditionally is the driest county in the state and often has precip minima there compared to surrounding areas.  Ignoring other factors such as my kids playing with cousins in the snow in Black Mountain, which experience would you prefer?

  1. Staying at home and seeing 6+ inches of snow, with an inch or snow of sleet, followed by a deform band with more snow IMBY, OR
  2. Traveling to in-laws and seeing a pure snowstorm with likely 12+ inches of snow on the ground, but they might get downsloped a bit by surrounding mountains.

As you can probably guess, my wife doesn't even understand why it's a dilemma, and she's like, "Let's go to my parents and have fun with the family there".  But there's something so special about seeing it snow, during the day, all day, below freezing, in your own backyard.  And, I'm a sucker for taking records and measurements IMBY, as you can see from my signature line.  :D

What are your thoughts?

 

I personally don't think downsloping is going to be a factor for anyone really because of the way the system moves. It's going to come in from the south rotating coming from the SE to east possibly then rotating the axis of moisture from a west to end with a NW flow setup. Black mountain should be in a great spot.

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