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2021-2022 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread


BlueRidgeFolklore
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3 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

 

But the Black Mountains (including Mt. Mitchell), just to the NE of the town of Black Mountain, get clobbered in this scenario (more than two feet).  So, being just to their SW could be beneficial too.

That “V” of lower totals on the GFS coming into Asheville from Madison County, is due to the French Broad River Valley funneling in warmer air from TN. That’s always a battleground area with CAD. In these setups, AVL isn’t Black Mountain. Black Mountain will do well.

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3 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Black Mountain will get crushed, the lower totals usually aren't until you get closer to the French Broad valley and Asheville. Obviously Hickory should do pretty well but a much higher chance of mixing with sleet

Yea, based on everything up to this point it’s a gamble of stay home for an all-timer in Hickory if all snow (top 5-10 even if it mixes) or go to Black Mountain for top 5 event there with an outside chance at an all timer. Can’t go wrong either way IMO.

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6 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

That “V” of lower totals on the GFS coming into Asheville from Madison County, is due to the French Broad River Valley funneling in warmer air from TN. That’s always a battleground area with CAD. In these setups, AVL isn’t Black Mountain. Black Mountain will do well.

That's most helpful with the local topography, @BlueRidgeFolklore.  Thanks for explaining that.  I think I'm pretty near set on heading up the mountain.

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Just now, calculus1 said:

I'll have to rely on local cocorahs reports to get an estimate for my own home, though.  There will probably still be a lot left around on Monday afternoon, though, assuming we can make it home then.

Making it home may be tricky even then . Black mountain can get in on some NWFS too (usually in squalls) and there will be a good bit of it behind the storm. 

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Just now, BhamParker said:

Would love to selfishly hear some of yalls guesses for lake toxaway? If we can find a war to stay mostly snow then it may get silly. This thread is awesome. Wish I lived up here with you Mountain folks. 

Should be a really good spot. Elevation and lift from the southern escarpment with the trajectory of the precip should be money. One of two jackpot areas I’m thinking. 

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Would love to selfishly hear some of yalls guesses for lake toxaway? If we can find a war to stay mostly snow then it may get silly. This thread is awesome. Wish I lived up here with you Mountain folks. 
Lake Toxaway is in a prime location for orographic enhancement on storms like these in my experience. If it stays all snow, my guess would be 18" safely.

Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk

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3 minutes ago, BhamParker said:

Would love to selfishly hear some of yalls guesses for lake toxaway? If we can find a war to stay mostly snow then it may get silly. This thread is awesome. Wish I lived up here with you Mountain folks. 

Yeah I think that will be a great spot. The mountains in general are going to be sitting pretty...

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2 minutes ago, Maggie Ace said:

So I've already starting contingency planning for Sunday/Monday. I'll be hosting guests at both of our rentals. Not sure out of town guests will be leaving as currently scheduled. 

I sure hope we make it out some point Monday. Our owners of who we are renting for are adamant that the community has a plan and budget for snow storms, but this may not be what they are used to expecting. I’ve chased a lot of storms and been lucky to never get stuck. 

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I’m swinging by the store when I get back after lunch, need to grab tire chains (that I was gonna get way back in October before my Wyoming trip, where I desperately needed them) so I can get up and down the mountain once I’m off the pavement and then run the generator between now and Saturday night along with some possible dead limb and tree cleanup to save myself a possible headache.  All that with moving some stuff on Saturday morning and early afternoon sandwiched in between. But I wouldn’t have it any other way :D

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1 minute ago, Tyler Penland said:

December 18 is what I remember.

Biggest snow I've seen in my life at 16". Completely shut down Boone for 2 days which is unheard of.

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Measured 15in IMBY during that one. Unreal experience. Couldn't leave the house for 4 days, haha.

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Just now, Met1985 said:

Yep December 18 2009! Was before my time on the board but I had 2 feet in my front yard. Only lost power for 6 hours. They had to get a front end loader to clear the roads out in Fines Creek area because it was waist deep especially near Max Patch. 

I missed that one,  was up in Va Beach. Luckily Christmas storm of 2010 made up for it. 

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4 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Yep December 18 2009! Was before my time on the board but I had 2 feet in my front yard. Only lost power for 6 hours. They had to get a front end loader to clear the roads out in Fines Creek area because it was waist deep especially near Max Patch. 

What’s the all-timer for populated portions of Haywood? I’m thinking it has to be March ‘30 (I think) I was reading about recently. 30”+ Fines Creek and Crabtree if I remember correctly. 

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11 minutes ago, WxKnurd said:

What’s the all-timer for populated portions of Haywood? I’m thinking it has to be March ‘30 (I think) I was reading about recently. 30”+ Fines Creek and Crabtree if I remember correctly. 

Probably March 93. That was the biggest storm of my lifetime.  Close to 3 feet in cashiers 

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TWC is getting kind of wild with my forecast :lol:

 

Saturday Night: Snow showers early, with a steadier snow developing late at night. Some sleet or freezing rain possible. Low 22F. Winds ESE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 90%. Snow accumulating 3 to 5 inches.

Sunday: Periods of snow. High 29F. Winds ESE at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of snow 100%. Snow accumulating 8 to 12 inches.

Sunday Night: Snow in the evening will give way to mostly cloudy conditions overnight. Low near 25F. Winds NNW at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of snow 80%. Snowfall around one inch. Higher wind gusts possible.

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