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2021-2022 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread


BlueRidgeFolklore
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Hi all over and in the far blue mountains. Sadly I will be just west of Boone (halfway between Boone and banner Elk) for what right looks like a nice plateau TN snow. I've never been there for a storm like this, so what are some reasonable expectations? Most of the models keep the snow west of the mts, but I also know elevation can make a huge difference once the low moves NE and you get the thermal profile crashing. Looks like I will be right at 3200 feet, just off 105 and up a hill. I also suspect the models have a hard time resolving rain and snow lines in the mountains, but don't really have any experience. 

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23 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Hi all over and in the far blue mountains. Sadly I will be just west of Boone (halfway between Boone and banner Elk) for what right looks like a nice plateau TN snow. I've never been there for a storm like this, so what are some reasonable expectations? Most of the models keep the snow west of the mts, but I also know elevation can make a huge difference once the low moves NE and you get the thermal profile crashing. Looks like I will be right at 3200 feet, just off 105 and up a hill. I also suspect the models have a hard time resolving rain and snow lines in the mountains, but don't really have any experience. 

As we are seeing as we get closer to this event the snow line has shifted east for the mountains.  Elevation will help a lot in this type setup. Not really sure about that area but things look great for you guys over the border. Should be a fun event. 

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GSP mentioned thundersnow in the PM AFD. Guess I should try and catch a nap before midnight.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
308 PM EST Fri Mar 11 2022

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

As the cold front slides through the CFWA overnight, very rapid height falls and intense CAA will filter in behind the front. This will support a 10 degree C drop in 850mb temps in less than two hours across the mountains with rapidly falling snow levels. Expect a quick transition to snow across the mountains just after midnight starting in the Smokies and ridgetops, with the valleys getting in on the action later overnight as snow levels continue to drop. Northwest flow regime will set up shop early Saturday morning and should last well into the afternoon hours along the TN border. With very good saturation through the dendritic growth zone, frontogenetic forcing, and decent duration of snow, elected to continue the Winter Storm Warning above 3500` and Winter Weather Advisory below 3500` over the mountain zones. As the core of the low enters the CFWA overnight, high-res models continue to produce small CAPE which could produce thundersnow with 1-2" per hour snow rates at times. With what looks like a Great Lakes connection and the CAPE potential, wouldn`t be surprised if a few streamers across the mountains developed snow squall characteristics. Temperatures will rapidly drop behind the front due to the very stout CAA, with temperatures dropping throughout the day Saturday. Expect high temperatures to be recorded at midnight tonight as some of the coldest air of the season filters in overnight through Saturday and into the beginning portions of the short term period.

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk



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4 minutes ago, Buckethead said:

GSP mentioned thundersnow in the PM AFD. Guess I should try and catch a nap before midnight.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
308 PM EST Fri Mar 11 2022

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

As the cold front slides through the CFWA overnight, very rapid height falls and intense CAA will filter in behind the front. This will support a 10 degree C drop in 850mb temps in less than two hours across the mountains with rapidly falling snow levels. Expect a quick transition to snow across the mountains just after midnight starting in the Smokies and ridgetops, with the valleys getting in on the action later overnight as snow levels continue to drop. Northwest flow regime will set up shop early Saturday morning and should last well into the afternoon hours along the TN border. With very good saturation through the dendritic growth zone, frontogenetic forcing, and decent duration of snow, elected to continue the Winter Storm Warning above 3500` and Winter Weather Advisory below 3500` over the mountain zones. As the core of the low enters the CFWA overnight, high-res models continue to produce small CAPE which could produce thundersnow with 1-2" per hour snow rates at times. With what looks like a Great Lakes connection and the CAPE potential, wouldn`t be surprised if a few streamers across the mountains developed snow squall characteristics. Temperatures will rapidly drop behind the front due to the very stout CAA, with temperatures dropping throughout the day Saturday. Expect high temperatures to be recorded at midnight tonight as some of the coldest air of the season filters in overnight through Saturday and into the beginning portions of the short term period.

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk


 

High elevation could see up to a foot.

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