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October 2021


Stormlover74
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2 hours ago, nycwinter said:

they did not have concrete before humanity existed so central park temps are what the real temps should be..

Good evening Nycw . I can appreciate your logic and perspective reasoning. The problem as I see it is the word ‘real’. Those temperatures were real several hundred years ago now real is defined by concrete/asphalt/leaking central heating/ and a boost temperature CO2  atmospheric additive. As a ridiculous suppose. (You can give me a by for age and booster side effects, ) ….. suppose the developed city existed as half mile tall edifices in the confines of What is now Central Park and the rest of the city limits ( same territory ) was 5 borough park land. The ASOS is in a square acre central court amidst the buildings. Now that would give Don’s sensitivity analysis a run for it’s money. I am still waiting for an update from my correspondent in the NWS ASOS group. He did ask me to have patience. I apologize for the fantasy and ramble and thank you for your patience. As always …

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31 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

is there some kind of inversion or something?  people are running fireplaces and stuff and smoke is staying near the ground.

Good evening Will. I want to thank you for the ‘weenie’. I have to remember, now there’s a stretch, to be careful what you ask for. Even so I’m still happily celibate. As always ….

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Continuation of the extended warmth theme following brief periods of slightly cooler than normal temperatures. Our last -10 departure day was way back on the July 4th weekend. The coldest departure of the whole year so far was during the Memorial Day weekend.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=32&network=NYCLIMATE&station=NYC004&year=2021&var=avg&gddbase=50&gddceil=86&how=diff&cmap=jet&dpi=100&_fmt=png

92600393-010E-41C4-A7C4-2A37234BF4DC.png.6881991a3b42811f7cb326d8d5d6d1c5.png 

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Under bright sunshine amidst some wispy high clouds, temperatures rose into the 70s today. Tomorrow will be even warmer. Temperatures will top out in the upper 70s and lower 80s across much of the region.

Newark's record-breaking streak with high temperatures of 70° or above increased to 125 consecutive days. The previous record was 119 days, which was set in 2008. Since Newark first recorded 90 or more such days back in 1900, the record has increased by no more than 7 days over the prior mark. That margin could be surpassed this year.

The warm regime will continue through much of next week. There is a chance of a significant rain event late in the week. Overall, the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas appear to be in line with a warmer to much warmer than normal October (a general 2°-4° above normal). New York City could have an October mean temperature of 60° or above.

Out West, Bismarck is in line for one of its 5 warmest opening weeks in October. During that time, Bismarck could challenge or break its record of 4 consecutive 80° high temperatures in October. The record was set during October 3-6, 1879 and tied during October 10-13, 1934.

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27".

Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around September 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely yield to La Niña conditions this month.

The SOI was +13.54 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.584 today.

On September 30 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of  1.639 (RMM). The September 29-adjusted amplitude was 1.414 (RMM).

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4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Under bright sunshine amidst some wispy high clouds, temperatures rose into the 70s today. Tomorrow will be even warmer. Temperatures will top out in the upper 70s and lower 80s across much of the region.

Newark's record-breaking streak with high temperatures of 70° or above increased to 125 consecutive days. The previous record was 119 days, which was set in 2008. Since Newark first recorded 90 or more such days back in 1900, the record has increased by no more than 7 days over the prior mark. That margin could be surpassed this year.

The warm regime will continue through much of next week. There is a chance of a significant rain event late in the week. Overall, the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas appear to be in line with a warmer to much warmer than normal October (a general 2°-4° above normal). New York City could have an October mean temperature of 60° or above.

Out West, Bismarck is in line for one of its 5 warmest opening weeks in October. During that time, Bismarck could challenge or break its record of 4 consecutive 80° high temperatures in October. The record was set during October 3-6, 1879 and tied during October 10-13, 1934.

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27".

Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around September 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely yield to La Niña conditions this month.

The SOI was +13.54 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.584 today.

On September 30 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of  1.639 (RMM). The September 29-adjusted amplitude was 1.414 (RMM).

I saw a graph posted today on TWC that was supposedly from the CPC that indicated that although they are predicting warmer than normal temps for us for October (greatest warmth centered over the Midwest), they are also predicting drier than normal for the NE.

 

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7 hours ago, rclab said:

Good evening Will. I want to thank you for the ‘weenie’. I have to remember, now there’s a stretch, to be careful what you ask for. Even so I’m still happily celibate. As always ….

look rclab, i gotta be there for you no matter what you request.  unless it’s a below normal fall in which case i am obviously powerless.

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2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I saw a graph posted today on TWC that was supposedly from the CPC that indicated that although they are predicting warmer than normal temps for us for October (greatest warmth centered over the Midwest), they are also predicting drier than normal for the NE.

 

This was the CPC forecast:

image.thumb.gif.0247a24f6d87dc2f08640baac25a5e24.gif

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The next 8 days are averaging 69degs.(64/75), or +6.

EURO still with 3x the rain of the GFS for the upcoming week, BUT---both  are down by a factor of 3 on the totals.

Reached 76* here yesterday.

Today: Changing conditions with sun to clouds, winds w. then s. then e. after sunset.   75-79.     Rain after 9pm.

61*(95%RH) here at 6am, hazy blue.     62*/63* variable + low fog going in and out, at 8am.        Just 68* at Noon.        70* at 1pm.        73* at 3pm.     74* at 4pm.

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Hope no one will be surprised at spot 3" amounts by Noon Tuesday in parts of our NYC subforum.  Clusters of slow moving (20-25 kt) heavy showers will be transiting east-northeast across the area beginning late this afternoon-evening, winding down Tuesday morning to spits.

Rejuvenates I think Fri or Sat but that's more debatable due to the closed low in the south central USA timing itself into the northeast. 

Monitoring possible injection of additional moisture from the Bahamas disturbance by the weekend. 

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34 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Will this week feature that “cooler then expected during a warm spell” because the temp is not going to swing more than 5 degrees that we have become famous for?  Looks like humid and round the clock 60s? An xmas eve special :/

Looks like a tricky forecast for the coming week, in both precip. amounts and temperature.

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22 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Looks like a tricky forecast for the coming week, in both precip. amounts and temperature.

even tomorrow is iffy-much warmer air just to our south and 6z Euro keeps us mostly dry tomorrow (more north of the city)

1633392000-4v0h41oK1Lk.png

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Morning thoughts…

Today will be partly sunny and very warm. Clouds will increase late in the day. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 76°

Newark: 82°

Philadelphia: 82°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 69.4°; 15-Year: 70.7°

Newark: 30-Year: 71.0°; 15-Year: 72.5°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 72.2°; 15-Year: 73.5°

Tomorrow will be variably cloudy with some showers and thundershowers possible.

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49 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We haven’t had a cold October since 2009.


94306F48-60CB-4C22-87A0-4C504C9BAA02.png.44bf576d3c5d324ef029550cc63cd5ab.png

 

0E120C87-E461-47B2-8BF4-F046E22C3754.png.7aa62d32879f3b7fe9b963b4f13ecc8d.png

Remember when Joe Bastardi said we were supposed to be entering a cooling period right now. 

Jesus is that guy a clown, how do people still take him seriously.

Turns out if you keep increasing emissions & CO2 levels the planet gets warmer..who woulda thought.

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15 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Remember when Joe Bastardi said we were supposed to be entering a cooling period right now. 

Jesus is that guy a clown, how do people still take him seriously.

Turns out if you keep increasing emissions & CO2 levels the planet gets warmer..who woulda thought.

Thanks for remembering this. I used to read JB back in the days he was still with AccuWx. His thoughts at the time were that the warming would reverse in the twenty teens (after all, it was nothing more than natural, decadal oscillations that cause warming).

I haven’t read JB in years. I imagine his predicted cooling era is simply a case of delayed but not denied. :sizzle:

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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Remember when Joe Bastardi said we were supposed to be entering a cooling period right now. 

Jesus is that guy a clown, how do people still take him seriously.

Turns out if you keep increasing emissions & CO2 levels the planet gets warmer..who woulda thought.

 

56 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

Thanks for remembering this. I used to read JB back in the days he was still with AccuWx. His thoughts at the time were that the warming would reverse in the twenty teens (after all, it was nothing more than natural, decadal oscillations that cause warming).

I haven’t read JB in years. I imagine his predicted cooling era is simply a case of delayed but not denied. :sizzle:

he's really gone off the rails lately with some of his twitter posts both with Covid and weather

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Another 75° at Islip brings them to within one day of the all-time record. 
 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 75 
Missing Count
  2007 120 0
  1991 120 0
  2021 119 89
  2010 118 0
  2011 117 0
  2005 116 0
  2001 116 0
  2016 115 0
  2015 115 0
  2018 114 0
  2017 113 0
  2020 112 0
  2014 112 0
  1980 112 0
  1998 111 0
  2013 110 0
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Up to 80 off a low of 49.  Dewpoint low 60s.  AC back on kind of day.  Still looks warmer than normal overall and guidance still brings in 850 temps >16c next week somewhere between the 11 - 16 could see more 80s.

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