Yanksfan Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 1 hour ago, uncle W said: the bubble will burst and it will get cold and even snow...the question is when...in 1998 it took until Dec 20th...if the pattern does reverse in November it might reverse back to warmer than average again in December...1971 did that... I yearn for the winters when I was a kid… pattern flip to cold around Thanksgiving followed by snow chances in December into January. Around mid month comes the dreaded week long January thaw (I like to refer it as halftime), then the 2nd half of winter rolls in with a blockbuster storm for good measure. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 21, 2021 Author Share Posted October 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said: I yearn for the winters when I was a kid… pattern flip to cold around Thanksgiving followed by snow chances in December into January. Around mid month comes the dreaded week long January thaw (I like to refer it as halftime), then the 2nd half of winter rolls in with a blockbuster storm for good measure. That's like maybe 20% of winters 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 21, 2021 Author Share Posted October 21, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 13 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Isn't this every winter with that call ? I can see it happen in the 2nd half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 3 hours ago, crossbowftw3 said: Incredibly welcome news for NorCal, until it becomes too much of a good thing Yeah, models have one of deepest lows on record off the Washington and Oregon coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 21, 2021 Author Share Posted October 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Isn't this every winter with that call ? I can see it happen in the 2nd half. Pretty much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 Banter, but personally, as an avid winter fan, I am hopeful for Mother Nature to delay the onset of cold for as long as possible. Keep people outside, keep heating costs down as long as we can. Snow/cold will come at some point, along with all other problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 21, 2021 Author Share Posted October 21, 2021 29 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said: Banter, but personally, as an avid winter fan, I am hopeful for Mother Nature to delay the onset of cold for as long as possible. Keep people outside, keep heating costs down as long as we can. Snow/cold will come at some point, along with all other problems. I prefer the cold and snow earlier in the season. By february I'm usually ready for spring 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 good winter... 12/9-12.....1-2"... 12/19-20...1-2"... 12/24-25...6-8"... 12/31-1/1...6-8"... 1/12............3-6"... 2/6-8..........foot or more... 2/15...........3-6"... 3/5.............3-6"... 4/1...............1-2"... total..........36-52"...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 11 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: I prefer the cold and snow earlier in the season. By february I'm usually ready for spring February is the snowiest month here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 74 and glorious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 Strong Nina https://twitter.com/noaacomms/status/1451204297593692163?s=21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 25 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: I prefer the cold and snow earlier in the season. By february I'm usually ready for spring If I could choose I'd have all my cold & snow from Nov 1-Jan 15. Lowest sun angle, holiday season, little daylight. Of course normally it's the back half that gives us the cold/snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 75 here, feeling like June out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 To go from record ridging to record low pressure in a matter of months is as extreme as it gets. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 3 hours ago, MJO812 said: Isn't this every winter with that call ? I can see it happen in the 2nd half. It’s pretty much climo for a Nina winter which is what they put up last winter. I put little/no stock in it since there are many other factors at play besides the weak to mod Nina expected. I guess it doesn’t predict snow for any place in particular. Last winter was warmer than average but also snowier here however nationwide it didn’t turn out how the median Nina winter does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 71 degrees here after a high of 74. Beautiful day. Foliage is so far behind we may peak closer to Thanksgiving rather than Halloween, if we don't get some cold weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 Maybe some 70 degree readings tomorrow in the normally milder areas, but it looks like the 70s are history this weekend and next week. It was nice while it lasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The extended EPS continues the above normal temperatures into November. Oct 25- Nov 1 Nov 1-Nov 8 Nov 8- Nov 15 Yeah probably the case though anything that far out is tough to diagnose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 Brilliant sunshine provided for another unseasonably warm October day. Temperatures soared well into the 70s across the region. Newark reached 70° for the 173rd time this year. That tied the record set in 2010. Four of the five years that saw 170 or more such days have occurred since 2000 and three have occurred since 2010. Tomorrow will be a bit cooler but still unseasonably warm. A more seasonably cool weekend lies ahead. Early next week and again later in the week, storms could bring a moderate to significant rainfall to parts of the region. No sharp cold shots appear likely through the remainder of October. The following locations are on course to challenge or establish new record high lowest monthly temperatures for October (through October 20): Allentown: 40° (record: 38°, 1971) Boston: 46° (record: 45°, 1971) Bridgeport: 43° (record: 41°, 2004) Islip: 42° (record: 40°, 1971 and 2017) New York City-JFK: 48° (record: 46°, 1971) New York City-LGA: 51° (record: 47°, 1971) New York City-NYC: 47° (record: 45°, 1971) Newark: 46° (record: 45°, 1971) Philadelphia: 46° (record: 45°, 1882, 1927 and 1931) Poughkeepsie: 38° (record: 35°, 1971, 1995 and 1996) White Plains: 44° (record: 40°, 1971) In northern Maine, Caribou has yet to experience its first freeze of autumn. The prior record latest first freeze occurred on October 17, 1970. The normal first freeze (1991-2020) occurs on September 25th, which was an increase of 2 days over the prior 1981-2010 base period. The MJO has now completed its passage through Phase 5 at a very high amplitude. During the 1991-2020 period, there were 6 cases with passage through Phase 5 with at least three days at an amplitude of 1.500 or above: 1998, 2000, 2004, 2010, 2017, and 2020. There was a strong signal for the second half of October to wind up warmer than normal (83%) cases in the New York City area. However, that signal broke down to a 50-50 split for the first 10 days of November. That hints at possible timing for a pattern transition depending on the pattern evolution and changes in the teleconnections. Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter. The SOI was +12.18 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.619 today. On October 19 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.334 (RMM). The October 18-adjusted amplitude was 0.312 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 61.8° (3.9° above normal). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Brilliant sunshine provided for another unseasonably warm October day. Temperatures soared well into the 70s across the region. Newark reached 70° for the 173rd time this year. That tied the record set in 2010. Four of the five years that saw 170 or more such days have occurred since 2000 and three have occurred since 2010. Tomorrow will be a bit cooler but still unseasonably warm. A more seasonably cool weekend lies ahead. Early next week and again later in the week, storms could bring a moderate to significant rainfall to parts of the region. No sharp cold shots appear likely through the remainder of October. The following locations are on course to challenge or establish new record high lowest monthly temperatures for October (through October 20): Allentown: 40° (record: 38°, 1971) Boston: 46° (record: 45°, 1971) Bridgeport: 43° (record: 41°, 2004) Islip: 42° (record: 40°, 1971 and 2017) New York City-JFK: 48° (record: 46°, 1971) New York City-LGA: 51° (record: 47°, 1971) New York City-NYC: 47° (record: 45°, 1971) Newark: 46° (record: 45°, 1971) Philadelphia: 46° (record: 45°, 1882, 1927 and 1931) Poughkeepsie: 38° (record: 35°, 1971, 1995 and 1996) White Plains: 44° (record: 40°, 1971) In northern Maine, Caribou has yet to experience its first freeze of autumn. The prior record latest first freeze occurred on October 17, 1970. The normal first freeze (1991-2020) occurs on September 25th, which was an increase of 2 days over the prior 1981-2010 base period. The MJO has now completed its passage through Phase 5 at a very high amplitude. During the 1991-2020 period, there were 6 cases with passage through Phase 5 with at least three days at an amplitude of 1.500 or above: 1998, 2000, 2004, 2010, 2017, and 2020. There was a strong signal for the second half of October to wind up warmer than normal (83%) cases in the New York City area. However, that signal broke down to a 50-50 split for the first 10 days of November. That hints at possible timing for a pattern transition depending on the pattern evolution and changes in the teleconnections. Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter. The SOI was +12.18 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.619 today. On October 19 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.334 (RMM). The October 18-adjusted amplitude was 0.312 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 61.8° (3.9° above normal). It seems the warmth over the past number of months has been more extreme, relative to normal, the further north you go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 9 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Today will probably be a few degrees cooler. Oh well, I'm counting it as 80 because it hit 80 here, JFK is hotter than LGA on a downslope wind so I'm a bit suspicious of yesterday's numbers there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 23 minutes ago, lee59 said: It seems the warmth over the past number of months has been more extreme, relative to normal, the further north you go. Yeah, the warmer departures to the north pattern has been stuck in place since last winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, the warmer departures to the north pattern has been locked in since last winter. With that warmth up north, if we get some good cold air passing over the warmer than normal Great Lakes, could be some big lake affect in the snowbelt areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 1 hour ago, lee59 said: It seems the warmth over the past number of months has been more extreme, relative to normal, the further north you go. That’s been a persistent theme. It may have something to do with the exceptionally warm SSTs off the northeastern U.S. and eastern Canada. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 Had a high temp of 78 here today. Yesterday I went up to Swartswood State Park in Sussex County. I thought there would be a decent amount of color, but it was still mostly green. Amazing to still have mostly green in extreme northwest NJ in late October. What an October this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 so far the lowest temp for this October is 47...45 is the record tied in 1971... 45 in 1946....great February with a major storm... 45 in 1971.....very good February... 44 in 2004.....very good winter with a major storm in January... 43 in 1994.....good February in a bad winter... 43 in 1927.....lousy winter... 43 in 2019.....horrible winter... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 Lee Goldberg indicating a pattern change and this could be our mildest night until next spring. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 7 hours ago, bluewave said: The extended EPS continues the above normal temperatures into November. Starting to remind me of Fall 2015 a little bit. AN week after week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 Decent look if it was winter. A bit flat out west though. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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